Projecting how Mizzou men's basketball's rotation will shake out in 2024-2025

COLUMBIA, Mo. — Let's talk lineups.

The start of the college basketball season is less than a week away, which means Missouri's preparations have become quite a bit more concrete. The Mizzou men held a public exhibition game Saturday and doubled up Division II school Lincoln for a 90-45 victory in the preseason scrimmage.

The Tigers' season opener is 7 p.m. Nov. 4 at Memphis, a game that will be streamed on ESPN+. It'll be the first real look at how third-year coach Dennis Gates will incorporate a heralded group of five freshmen and five transfers in pursuit of a turnaround from last season's woes.

Gates is likely to deploy a large rotation of players, particularly early in the season, as he sorts out which lineup combinations will work best and which players merit minutes come conference play in the new year. He's got 15 scholarship players to work with, and seeing 11, 12 or even more of them get into games doesn't seem out of the question.

Here's how the Post-Dispatch thinks Gates could assemble his rotation, based on preseason estimates.

Core starters

G Tony Perkins: A grad transfer from Iowa, Perkins is lined up to be one of the players most integral to MU's identity on both ends of the floor. At 6-4, Perkins has the size to operate at multiple levels offensively and defensively. He hasn't shot the ball at an incredible level but converts catch-and-shoot looks well. Last season, Perkins averaged 4.6 assists per game to 1.9 turnovers, the kind of ratio that appeals to Gates. Perkins was a second-team All-Big Ten selection and is expected to be a solid defender — something that could also stand out for this Mizzou team.

F Mark Mitchell: Mitchell was the highest-profile transfer of the offseason, arriving from Duke after two years as a starter for the Blue Devils. He averaged 11.6 points and six rebounds per game last year while shooting 54% from the field, and has the athleticism at 6-9 to be a playmaker for Mizzou. Mitchell was one of the nation's most effective transition scorers last year and also did well as the screener on pick-and-roll plays.

Gates has been happy with what Perkins and Mitchell, in particular, have shown as portal adds. "Those guys give us unbelievable experience when you look at the games that they've played, but also the character that they are," the coach said. "Those dudes are good dudes."

G Caleb Grill: Before his early December injury last season, Grill led the Tigers in rebounding with 5.8 boards per game, a contribution they missed as the season wore on. His shot never quite settled, but he was a 36.8% shooter from 3-point range during the 2022-2023 season, so he's capable in that regard. Grill also has the potential to score at the rim in some situations, and he has averaged at least a steal per game in each of the last four seasons. His skillset and experience will likely make him an on-court staple.

C Josh Gray: He seems like the default center for now, given his experience and Missouri only having freshmen as other true options at the position. At 7 feet tall and 260 pounds, Gray has the frame to hold up against Southeastern Conference bigs and has played four seasons in the conference at Louisiana State and South Carolina. He grabbed 6.3 rebounds per game while playing 16.8 minutes per night with the Gamecocks in 2023, which is the kind of production on the glass the Tigers will need. Gray was in the 99th percentile with 1.39 points per possession involving a post-up last year, which could be a welcome form of bucket-getting within Mizzou's half-court offense.

Potential starters/key substitutes

G Tamar Bates: He was the No. 2 option (and No. 1 at times) for most of last season, narrowly missing out on a 50-40-90 season, shooting 49.5% from the field, 38.5% from 3 and 92.6% at the line. That kind of efficiency will help him as a scorer again this season, but the Tigers might not need as much volume. Fewer minutes or a sixth-man role could keep Bates fresher when he's on the floor, though it wouldn't be surprising if he still starts.

G Marques Warrick: Warrick transferred from Northern Kentucky to score, and Gates has made that the priority. The NCAA's active leader in career points has a green light from his new coach. He's a solid shooter but especially dangerous when he can get to the rim. When the Tigers go through offensive lulls or a game slows down, Warrick is likely the go-to for his ability to create points.

F Jacob Crews: Transferring from Tennessee-Martin, Crews is one of the most fascinating players on the roster, in terms of how Gates could deploy him. Crews is 6-8 but shot 41.4% from 3 last year while averaging 19.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. If his shot, guard skills and physicality translate to the SEC, he could become a challenge for other teams to handle. If Gates wants size, he could start Crews alongside Perkins, Grill, Mitchell and Gray for a group of five players who would all be 6-3 or taller and capable on the boards.

Reserves to watch

G Annor Boateng: Mizzou's highest-ranked recruit since Michael Porter Jr. has pro potential. Boateng is a 6-6 freshman wing who played with and against some of the best high school players at invitational all-star games and tournaments. The Tigers may want to ease him into the college game, but Boateng could be earning significant minutes as the season goes.

C Peyton Marshall: A freshman 7-footer who has been in the gym to become a more mobile 300 pounds, there's no doubt that Marshall has the frame to hold up in the SEC. That won't give him as much of an automatic advantage as he had in high school, so there could be a transition period, but he may supplant Gray as the starting center by season's end.

G Anthony Robinson II: As a freshman, Robinson had an up-and-down campaign last season while adjusting. He led Mizzou in steals, with 38, which could be his path to minutes this season. If Perkins is off the floor but the Tigers need to generate extra possessions, Robinson could find his time to shine in his second season.

F Aidan Shaw: There's no doubting Shaw's athleticism or capabilities as a lob threat. He served as a small-ball center at times last season as MU sifted through frontcourt options. But heading into his third year, Shaw seems overdue for a developmental leap as a rebounder, driver or shooter, all of which will likely be required for him to have a concrete role.

Developmental pieces

F Trent Pierce: At 6-10 with a jumper, Pierce's ceiling remains high. His freshman season didn't give him much of a chance to show it, though, as he missed a large chunk of SEC play with an ear issue that required surgery. If he can find his shot in year two, Pierce could climb this list rather rapidly.

F Trent Burns: Now listed at 7-5, Burns has a little bit of a Victor Wembanyama build going for him. The key will be how a relatively lanky frame holds up and what ball skills the freshman shows.

G Marcus Allen: Another freshman wing with the build to find success, Allen was a double-double machine in high school, averaging 22.7 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. He's in a crowded room with experience ahead of him.

G T.O. Barrett: Barrett, a freshman, is in a similar situation. He'll benefit from learning from veteran wings and spot minutes early in the season.

Mizzou beat writer