Projecting the Blackhawks’ future roster and salary cap: Part 1
A time will come when the present will matter to the Chicago Blackhawks . Fans will be able to get lost in the standings, playoff implications, lineup decisions, trade deadlines and so on. It'll be a nice change of pace in the comments section.
That time hasn't come yet. While the Blackhawks are showing signs of being more competitive than the past few years, they still seem a ways off from being that contender. Through 16 games, the Blackhawks are closer in points percentage to being a top-five draft team than a playoff team.
As the Blackhawks' big-picture focus continues to be on the future, that's what we'll dive into here. This is the first of a two-part series projecting the Blackhawks' lineup and analyzing their salary cap space until 2030. In this first part, we'll focus on next season, which players are returning and at what position, which players could be re-signed or promoted and what the Blackhawks might address in free agency.
The Blackhawks have eight forwards who are under contract and expected to return next season. That gives the Blackhawks a solid base for next season's lineup. Most of those returnees are expected to be in the lineup every day next season, too.
That leaves the Blackhawks four or five roster spots for forwards. Philipp Kurashev , a restricted free agent after this season, will probably take one of those. He and the Blackhawks went to arbitration last time around, and Kurashev won a two-year contract with a $2.25 million cap hit. That would be the qualifying number he would require after this season as well. Kurashev will probably ask for more coming off last season's breakout year and with the salary cap increasing. If he could start producing at a higher rate this season and get anywhere near his 54-point production of last season, that would help his argument.
It's still not clear exactly where Kurashev fits into the long-term picture, but he's probably worth signing for at least a few more seasons. He could be in the $3 million cap hit range depending on how the rest of this season goes.
The Blackhawks will be looking to promote some of their prospects to the NHL next season as well. The front-runners based on their AHL play so far are Frank Nazar, Landon Slaggert and Samuel Savoie. Nazar leads the Rockford IceHogs with four goals and seven assists through nine games. He's consistently making plays and using his speed at center, posing a threat in every situation. Slaggert is a winger who can play up and down the lineup. He and Nazar have been a dangerous duo on the penalty kill. Savoie has been playing in more of a bottom-six role for the IceHogs, but he's showing offensive potential to play up the lineup, too. As much as he's known for his speed and forechecking ability, he also has some power-forward traits in the way he taps into that speed and gets to the net.
After those three, there are some other IceHogs who will probably be knocking on the NHL door next season. Colton Dach has NHL potential; it's a matter of him playing to that potential consistently. Paul Ludwinski could also push for a bottom-six center spot. He's another speedy center who can disrupt opponents on the forecheck.
The Blackhawks will also likely have a handful of unsigned prospects sign before next season. Ryan Greene and Oliver Moore are expected to sign after their collegiate seasons and turn pro. Both could push for NHL spots next season but would likely start in Rockford. Nick Lardis, who is playing in the OHL, could be in that mix, too. He's already signed for next season. Dominic James, Martin Misiak and Aidan Thompson will also likely be incoming prospects to Rockford.
The Blackhawks' defense for next season seems easy to put together. Five of their current NHL defensemen are signed for next season. The main question will be whether Nolan Allan can stick in the NHL with other prospects likely to be promoted. The Blackhawks could sit T.J. Brodie if they feel like they have enough young defensemen ready for the NHL.
The Blackhawks will have three restricted free agents on the back end they'll likely look to re-sign. Wyatt Kaiser will be the key one. He's taken another stride forward this season and done well with more responsibility.
Kaiser won't be arbitration-eligible, so the Blackhawks will have some leverage. The Blackhawks may try to use that leverage to sign Kaiser for a few years while giving him some money. The Blackhawks took care of Lukas Reichel that way last season. Maybe Kaiser will get a two-year contract around $1.25 million.
Isaak Phillips and Louis Crevier will also be restricted free agents. They both signed one-year, $775,000 contracts after last season. Their qualifying offer would be $813,750. That could be around the price point the Blackhawks look to re-sign them, but it could also depend on how much NHL time they see this season. Kaiser is the only one of the three projected to definitely start next season in the NHL.
The Blackhawks have high hopes for top-10 defenseman draft picks Kevin Korchinski and Artyom Levshunov. Both were placed in Rockford this season to best prepare them for the NHL in the future. The Blackhawks won't rush either player and probably won't give them too many NHL games this season, but they're expected to be in the NHL come next season.
The Blackhawks have a simple goalie plan on paper, but it could be complicated by Arvid Söderblom .
The Blackhawks have veteran goalies Petr Mrázek and Laurent Brossoit signed for next season. They added Brossoit in the offseason because Söderblom struggled so much in the NHL last season. But so far this season, Söderblom has been a different player.
At 25, Söderblom isn't incredibly young, but he's young enough for a goalie. The Blackhawks will want to make sure they're not moving on from someone who could be part of their future. Söderblom will require waivers next season, too, so that could play into a decision. The Blackhawks will also first have to re-sign Söderblom as a restricted free agent. He'll have a $1 million qualifying offer and would probably sign a one-year deal for that. Drew Commesso is also probably wondering where he fits into the future, but he'll likely have to wait longer.
Based on everyone returning, likely to re-sign and likely to be promoted, below is what next season's lineup could look like. That lineup would have a $67,102,499 total cap hit, probably around next season's cap floor. The cap is expected to increase from $88 million this season to about $92.5 million next season. The cap floor was $65 million this season, so that will likely increase, too. After this season, the Blackhawks won't have any retained money or buyouts on the books.
So, let's talk about that X on the top line alongside Connor Bedard .
The Blackhawks must know they don't have many players on their roster — or likely coming in their system for at least a few years — who can play with Bedard. The Blackhawks are optimistic about a lot of their forward prospects, but realistically, none will likely be top-line-ready for some time. Even if the Blackhawks draft in the top five again in 2025, that forward prospect is going to need some time.
The Blackhawks signed Teuvo Teräväinen and Tyler Bertuzzi last offseason to improve the forward group, but they weren't necessarily projected as Bedard's linemates in the future. There was hope they could help Bedard this season, but the Blackhawks would like to complement Bedard with more speed and talent down the road.
As always, the Blackhawks are mindful of the cap. As much cap space as they've had in recent years, general manager Kyle Davidson is well aware of how quickly it can vanish. Come 2026-27, Davidson will have contracts due to Bedard, Korchinski, Nazar and Reichel. Bedard will cost the Blackhawks a significant amount, but the others shouldn't be too expensive.
The Blackhawks were probably worried about what Korchinski and Reichel might cost them, but they haven't produced as expected and won't cost the Blackhawks as much in the near future. Thanks to Nazar burning his first contract season, his second contract probably won't be large. Levshunov's entry-level deal will likely slide a season, so he wouldn't be due his next contract until 2028-29. The Blackhawks will have plenty of time to worry about their other first-round picks' second deals, too. Seth Jones' deal expiring after the 2029-30 season should help pay for the future.
The Blackhawks are approaching a window where they could make a major signing if they want.
They likely will have the cap space for at least another four years to comfortably bring in a high-paid player and not need to sweat it. That salary will also probably help their overall cap hit as the Blackhawks welcome more prospects on entry-level deals to the NHL. From Lardis to Moore to Levshunov to Sacha Boisvert to Marek Vanacker to Roman Kantserov, the Blackhawks have a lot of young players coming. While they'll require NHL roster spots, they won't be adding much to the cap total. The Blackhawks will need to make up for that somewhere.
Aside from a financial standpoint, the Blackhawks could use a star in their lineup. That player would help Bedard's development and alleviate pressure for Bedard and other young players. That player would also help the Blackhawks win more games, sell more jerseys and fill more seats.
If the Blackhawks went this route, they wouldn't add just anyone. If they can't land any of the biggest free agents on the market or trade for one without giving up too much of their future, there's no point in just adding someone to check a box. They added some solid veterans last season. They don't want to do that every offseason. It's either bringing in a big fish or keeping that lineup spot open for a young player.
This brings us to the question of whom the Blackhawks could sign. The three biggest fish are probably Mikko Rantanen , Mitch Marner and Nikolaj Ehlers . All three are on expiring contracts and are either 27 or 28 years old.
It's possible all three will re-sign with their current teams before next summer and the Blackhawks don't end up pursuing anyone. But in the instance they do hit the market, I asked The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn to project what each of the three players would look like in the future. He used Evolving Hockey's contract projections for the salaries.
Luszczyszyn also noted Ehlers' value over time would look better with more ice time and playing with Bedard. Ehlers might be more of a middle ground for the Blackhawks, too, where he'd be an improvement from what they have and someone who could play with Bedard but also won't cost as much as Rantanen or Marner.
Time will tell whether any of these players will be available and if the Blackhawks will be open to signing someone as a major piece. This past offseason was the first where Davidson was willing to sign someone to a contract beyond two years. He could take that a step further next offseason. We'll see.
(Photo of Nikolaj Ehlers and Mitch Marner: Nick Turchiaro /USA Today)
