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Ranking Braves SP Max Fried's Top 10 Landing Spots in MLB Free Agency
J.Johnson29 min ago
- Sean M. Haffey/ Here's a message for MLB teams that are in the market for a left-handed ace: You're in luck. Alongside Blake Snell, Max Fried is one of two lefty aces up for bids on the 2024-25 free-agent market. And today, it is the latter's turn for the B/R Landing Spots treatment. Unlike Snell, Fried does not come with two Cy Young Awards on his résumé. Yet Fried, who's 30, does have the advantage of being a year younger than Snell. And between the two, he's generally been more consistent as a No. 1 starter. Let's begin by going deeper into Fried's merits as they relate to his value on the open market, and then get to speculating about his 10 best suitors.
- Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/ It feels like ancient history by now, but Fried's road to this point wasn't always smooth. It took him five seasons to reach the big leagues after the San Diego Padres drafted him No. 7 overall out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles. Along the way, he had Tommy John surgery in August 2014 and got traded to the Atlanta Braves just months later. All the same, Fried is here now and can look back with pride on what he's accomplished. Just in the last five seasons, he's been a two-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glover and a World Series champion. Within this span, he is the only pitcher to amass over 600 innings and an ERA+ over 150 in the regular season. Fried has averaged a sturdy 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, with his average fastball consistently holding around 94 mph . He is keen at avoiding hard contact, typically ranking in the top 10 percent for both average exit velocity and ground-ball percentage. Though he isn't necessarily injury-prone, blisters have been a frequent annoyance , and he missed time with forearm issues in both 2023 and 2024 . If these things don't give teams pause, his ties to draft-pick compensation upon his eventual rejection of a qualifying offer might do the trick. Yet even if it is possible to imagine Fried's market being colder than expected, his next contract is generally expected to clear nine figures. Along with MLB Trade Rumors , B/R's Tim Kelly and myself put him in the six-year, $160 million range. There are probably more teams that could get in on Fried at such a rate, but let's narrow his best landing spots down to 10 and rank them according to how much sense they make.
- New York Yankees/Projected 2025 Rotation: Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, Griffin Canning, Ian Anderson The door shouldn't be closed on Fried returning to the Braves. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is a " big fan " of the lefty, and he has also hinted at a higher payroll for 2025. However, this is the same franchise that basically shrugged when Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson reached free agency. The general vibe with Fried feels similar, and whether Atlanta even needs him back in its rotation is debatable. The Giants could conceivably turn to Fried as a replacement for Snell, who's on the market because he declined a $30 million player option for 2025. Yet it figures to be cheaper for the Giants to simply re-sign Snell. And cheaper is indeed better in this case, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic has reported that San Francisco is likely to reduce payroll for 2025. Rangers GM Chris Young has starting pitching at the top of his mind this winter, and among the holes he must fill are those left empty by Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney. Scoring Fried for one of them would be a big win. The Rangers also have budget constraints , though. And since both they and the Giants are luxury-tax payors for 2024, signing Fried would cost either team its second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft and $1 million from its international bonus pool. Three of MLB Trade Rumors ' prognosticators tabbed the Cubs as the final destination for Fried. It makes some sense, in that it would be a case of a deep-pocketed team further fortifying an already strong rotation. That there has yet to be any solid reporting connecting Fried to the Cubs could mean nothing. Or, it could mean the club's focus is elsewhere, such as on its underpowered offense or its undermanned bullpen.Projected 2025 Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil The Yankees have checked in on Fried, according to Jon Heyman of . He'll be an especially sensible target if they can't re-sign Juan Soto, which is a realistic scenario. Soto is undeniably the organization's top goal for the offseason, though. And even if the Yankees do lose him, their priority should be an offense that is presently missing him, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo because of free agency.
- Jim McIsaac/Projected 2025 Rotation: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, José Buttó Why the Mets as a fit for Fried? Well, because they're the Mets. They've opened each of the last two seasons with the highest payroll in Major League Baseball. And right now, there's a $174 million gap between what they spent in 2024 and where they project to open 2025. How much money the Mets spend this winter is ultimately up to uber-wealthy owner Steve Cohen, but it's David Stearns who's running the front office as president of baseball operations. And with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana afloat on the free-agent waters, he sees what everyone else sees. "We're going to have to add multiple starters," Stearns said in October. "We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same need and I think we'll be able to do it." Though there's a better case for Corbin Burnes and at least as good a case for Snell, signing Fried is about as well as the Mets can do as they seek to fill out their rotation. The bonus, of course, is that signing him would mean swiping a key player from a top NL East rival. And this one happens to have a career 2.57 ERA at Citi Field from his time as a Brave. Yet perhaps because they're focused on Soto at the moment, there isn't any solid reporting linking Fried to the Mets. And even if the Mets whiff on Soto, a better Plan B would involve pivoting to Burnes first and Fried second. Or even Snell first, for that matter. He isn't tied to a qualifying offer and thus wouldn't cost the Mets, a luxury-tax payor , draft picks and bonus money.
- Scott Taetsch/Projected 2025 Rotation: Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers The Orioles? Spending big in free agency? It's not a familiar story, but this is the first offseason in which they'll have access to new owner David Rubenstein's estimated $4 billion in net worth. And for now, GM Mike Elias is talking a good game about pursuing pitching: Fried certainly fits the bill of a high-end pitcher. And as Heyman reported, he is on Baltimore's radar. As an Oriole, Fried would fit nicely into the rotation spot left vacant by Burnes. And chances are he would enjoy pitching at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The left field dimensions are getting changes for 2025, but Michael Baumann of FanGraphs makes a case that the park will still be unfriendly to right-handed hitters. That would be good for the left-handed Fried, who doesn't have much of platoon split anyway. As for the practicality of the Orioles signing him, there's room for optimism and pessimism. To the former, the Orioles are not a luxury-tax payor and therefore would only stand to lose their second- or third-highest pick in the 2025 draft, depending on whether they're a revenue sharing recipient. To the latter, this is a franchise that has only ever done one ( notably ill-fated ) nine-figure deal in free agency. And even without extensions in place for Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles' projected 2025 payroll is just $3 million shy of what they spent in 2024. This doesn't mean a Fried deal is implausible for Baltimore. But from where I'm sitting, it's a "believe it when I see it" thing.
- Harry How/Projected 2025 Rotation: It's been almost three years since the Dodgers signed a Southern California native who had formerly been a beloved Brave. That was Freddie Freeman and, yeah, that has worked out . So, why not try to repeat the formula with Fried? The southpaw was born in Santa Monica and was a regular at Dodger Stadium growing up. And his idol? Sandy Koufax, naturally. The Dodgers don't need to be nudged in Fried's direction. They're already looking into him, according to Heyman , who also noted they could sign one of him, Burnes or Snell regardless of whether they win the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. Though the Dodgers arguably don't need a pitcher with No. 1 talent, what Fried offers is a pitcher with No. 1 dependability. His injury history isn't totally clean, but he looks like an iron man in light of all the injury issues the Dodgers had with their pitchers this year. As for whether they can afford him...well, yes. Next question. But the next question is where it gets tricky. As a luxury-tax payor , what should spook the Dodgers is the prospect of losing $1 million from their bonus pool for the next international signing period if they go for Fried. The next signing period begins on January 15, 2025. And per Jim Bowden of The Athletic, Sasaki won't sign before then. L.A. is already disadvantaged in this regard, as its 2025 bonus pool is an MLB-low-tying $5.1 million. Granted, the Dodgers could hope to sign Fried they've first secured Sasaki. But that outcome depends on Fried still being available, which is far from a sure thing.
- Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Projected 2025 Rotation: The Red Sox aren't merely in on Fried, as Heyman reported. As ESPN's Jeff Passan briefly mentioned on the on Friday, Boston is actively talking with both Fried and Snell: The above projection does not include Lucas Giolito, who figures to be available for most of 2025 after missing this year following elbow surgery. But it also doesn't include Nick Pivetta, who is unlikely to accept Boston's qualifying offer, according to Passan . That equals at least one rotation hole to be filled by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, who has also spoken about needing to "raise the ceiling of the rotation." Indeed, the club is in a years-long funk with starting pitching. Breslow was able to get things moving in the right direction early in 2024, but the latter half of the season made it clear how hard it is for an organization to achieve sustainable results through gimmicks alone. It's therefore easier to imagine the Red Sox opting for Snell. And if they are going to go all-in on a player with ties to draft compensation, it might as well be Burnes.
- Cole Burston/Projected 2025 Rotation: Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Bowden Francis, Chris Bassitt, Yariel Rodríguez This feels like a make-or-break winter for the Blue Jays, doesn't it? That they won zero playoff games despite making the postseason three times between 2020 and 2023 was shocking. That they sunk to last place in the AL East this year? Even more so. The Blue Jays probably should be rebuilding, but the organization decidedly commit to that bit at the trade deadline . And judging from GM Ross Atkins' stance on Bo Bichette, they're not about to now: There's been plenty of reporting on Toronto's desire to add a star free agent. They're a legitimate threat for Soto, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet says they're "motivated" on the starting pitching market. According to Heyman and Passan , Fried is one of the guys in the Blue Jays' sights. If they make Fried their big-ticket signing, they will have doubled down on run prevention yet again . It would be a risky play, as this approach hasn't been a total success in recent years. Then again, Fried plus Gausman, Berríos, Francis and Bassitt would give Toronto arguably the best rotation in the American League. As double-down bets go, it would be a good one. Per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are believed to have ultimately gotten below the first luxury-tax threshold for the 2024 season. If that proves true, it will work to their advantage in their pursuits of all QO-tied free agents, Fried included. And contrary to Boston, Burnes may be a step too far given where Toronto's payroll is now. The Red Sox are about $70 million short of the first tax threshold for 2025. The Blue Jays are only about $30 million short. In other words, there would seem to be a perfectly Fried-sized hole north of the border.
Read the full article:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10143840-ranking-braves-sp-max-frieds-top-10-landing-spots-in-mlb-free-agency
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