Recruiting mailbag: TCU vs. SMU on the trail, Jonathan Smith’s impact at Michigan State

Welcome back to another edition of our recruiting mailbag. Can you believe the early signing period begins in less than a month? This season has flown by, but now the fun begins.

Thank you as always for your questions.

Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

How quickly will we see Jonathan Smith’s impact on Michigan State ’s recruiting? How effective do you think he and his staff will be? — Todd F.

First things first: Kudos to Michigan State for making a smart hire here. With the athletic department’s facing so much turmoil as of late, it was important the university hire someone who can stabilize the program’s image while competing at the highest level. Smith, coming to East Lansing by way of Oregon State, should be able to do that. And Michigan State’s resources, thanks to its positioning in the Big Ten, will only help him.

In terms of Smith on the recruiting trail, we won’t fully see his impact until he gets going with the Class of 2025 and has time to make inroads with Michigan high school players and coaches. He has spent his entire career out west and has been in the Pac-12 since 2014. With the early signing period coming up so soon, he has just three-ish weeks to try to salvage a 2024 class that has just eight commits with an average player rating of 87.54. The Spartans have lost seven commits this year, including six in the wake of Mel Tucker’s scandal and ensuing firing. All three of the Spartans’ scholarship quarterbacks have also entered the transfer portal .

Thank you Spartan Nation for the warm welcome! #GoGreen pic.twitter.com/FmmrdyMd3E

— Jonathan Smith November 29, 2023

We won’t be able to judge Smith based on this group (he will presumably have to lean heavily into the portal in the short term), but we’ll see him hustling on the recruiting trail sooner rather than later. He won me over this week when he said the “best way” to recruit is to “hop in a car” and recruit the three-to-four-hour radius from campus. He seems intent on building his program from the high school ranks, which will go a long way with the in-state coaches.

So much about recruiting is effort and a hunger to be great at it. We know Smith knows how to develop players, given his track record at Oregon State. Combine that ability with a willingness to be relentless on the recruiting trail, and there’s reason for optimism.

How early is too early to start the recruiting process? — Jeffrey H.

This is a great question because it sure does feel like top prospects are getting offers earlier than ever before. I can remember my days of covering Clemson when Dabo Swinney joked he wanted to see a recruit get his driver’s license or go to prom before Clemson offered him a scholarship. That luxury of waiting for a player to develop seems to be over, given the current landscape. If one school doesn’t offer you right this second, another will — and will use it in its sales pitch.

When I talked to Wake Forest quarterback commit Locklan Hewlett about the notion of early offers ( and early commitments ), he seemed to think freshman year was too early for a quarterback to commit. I agree with him and would add that any prospect still in middle school is too young for an offer. It’s impossible to project how an eighth grader will develop physically, and it puts recruits in a position where they’re getting offers that programs know they can’t always honor. Plus, what 12-year-old is capable of handling the recruiting process? (I’m sure we all remember the “Baby Gronk” fiasco. ) I’d love to see schools offer prospects as sophomores, once they have a full year of high school under their belts, but I know that’s not realistic. Freshman year and up seems reasonable. If a recruit still has baby teeth, it’s too early.

Hi, Grace, starting next year, does TCU or SMU have a higher potential recruiting ceiling? Both are private schools in the DFW area with TCU being in the Power 5 longer, but I feel like SMU’s donors will “pony up” more money for NIL. — Nathan S.

LOL, I like what you did there.

I’m taking SMU. Although TCU is in good hands with coach Sonny Dykes, and it’s hard to ignore the Horned Frogs after the season they had last year, SMU just seems to have more buzz. There is excitement about joining a power conference, and SMU supporters will be ready to pay up to stay competitive in the name, image and likeness space. Look no further than last season, when they launched the Boulevard Collective in August 2022, which was set to pay SMU athletes $3.5 million, a source told The Athletic’s Chris Vannini. Then in September, when it was announced that SMU will join the ACC next year, a small group of 30 donors raised more than $100 million in seven days to help offset the TV money SMU will be missing out on for its first nine years in the league. Boosters plan to give more than $200 million when all is said and done.

It won’t be easy for SMU to compete against the likes of Florida State , Clemson , North Carolina and Miami in the recruiting landscape right off the bat, but if SMU and TCU are in power conferences with the same access to talent in their backyard, I’m giving the nod to the program that seems to be ready to rumble from an NIL standpoint.

Hi, Grace, given how the Gators were the architects of their own collapse to end the season, with Billy Napier relieving two key coaches, could Florida’s 2024 recruiting class take a hit and have an impact on the 2025 class considering Napier will be on the hot seat? — Moe J.

We have to assume both are possible, yes. If two things can derail a recruiting class, they are losing and uncertainty about a coach’s future. Napier might not be on the hot seat right this minute, but there’s no denying Florida hasn’t done its part on the field. The 5-7 Gators have had consecutive losing seasons and enter the offseason on the heels of a five-game losing streak. Meanwhile, rival Florida State is playing for a College Football Playoff berth this weekend.

To Napier’s credit, he has made a name for himself as an elite recruiter. The Gators still have a top-10 class at the moment, even after the nation’s Nos. 74, 127 and 192 prospects, edge Jamonta Waller, cornerback Wardell Mack and defensive lineman Nasir Johnson, decommitted this month. Since firing co-defensive coordinator/defensive line coach Sean Spencer and secondary coach Corey Raymond, two of the bigger names on his staff , Monday, Napier hasn’t lost any recruits yet. But there is still plenty of time for schools to try to flip Florida’s top talent, and Napier doesn’t have a successful on-field product to brag about when he heads into living rooms this month. Five-star quarterback DJ Lagway very well could be his saving grace. Lagway visited the Swamp last week and appears to be locked in. He’s talented enough to help turn this program around — Florida can’t let him get away.

One of the things that made Irish fans excited about Marcus Freeman becoming the head coach was the anticipation of raising the ceiling for Notre Dame recruiting. Should we still be excited? It really feels like while there’s been a definite bump in the talent level, overall it hasn’t met expectations. — Andrew R.

It’s up to Notre Dame’s coaches to develop their talent, and maybe Freeman has gotten off to a slower start than we anticipated in that regard. But the talent itself, as you mentioned, is there. And for that reason, you can still be excited about Notre Dame recruiting.

Freeman’s first full class was in the 2023 cycle, which featured an average player rating of 91.77 and 19 blue-chip prospects — the program’s most since the Class of 2013.

His 2024 class features 16 blue-chippers and has an average player rating of 91.41 — the third consecutive year Notre Dame has surpassed the 91 mark, after finishing with an average player rating of 89.94 in 2021. CJ Carr is on pace to be Notre Dame’s highest-ranked quarterback signee since the Class of 2015 (Brandon Wimbush) and is the fifth-ranked quarterback in this class. It’s up to Freeman to make sure the talent is properly used, and Notre Dame will be in the spotlight again if it ends up signing Duke transfer Riley Leonard . But personnel shouldn’t be an issue.

Hi, Grace, do you think that the U winning only seven games in Year 2 of the Mario Cristobal era will cause recruits to decommit? And what do you think the future holds for the 2025 class? — Adam F.

I enlisted the help of my good pal Manny Navarro for this question. When Manny isn’t coaching his daughter’s soccer team to scoreless ties, he’s an expert on all things Hurricanes. Here’s what he said:

“Good question. I don’t think Miami is going to lose commitments because it improved by only two wins in the standings. Miami’s NIL collective, Canes Connection, is very strong — even with LifeWallet CEO John Ruiz being phased out over the last year amid his company’s financial issues. As for the future, we do think recruits need to see Miami make the leap from seven wins to close to nine or 10 in Cristobal’s third year, though, to keep the momentum heading in the right direction.”

Thanks, Manny. And happy holidays to you and your loved ones.

(Photo: Jerome Miron / USA Today)