Reds finish 2024 disappointed, ready for changes ahead
CHICAGO — In his first meeting with the Cincinnati Reds as its interim manager, Freddie Benavides started with the obvious — this team underachieved.
That's why Benavides was in front of the team last Monday after the firing of sixth-year manager David Bell.
Both internally and externally, the Reds entered 2024 with high expectations coming off a surprising 82-80 showing in 2023. Cincinnati handed out more than $100 million in contracts during the offseason to supplement a young team that saw breakthroughs that season before from shortstop Elly De La Cruz , second baseman Matt McLain and others.
There was no shortage of talent on the roster, Benavides told the team, but the play was inconsistent through the year.
"I think everyone believes that, but hearing that from him, I think it all really sank in," Reds outfielder Spencer Steer said. "We're all ultimately responsible for what happened because of our lack of performance. Coaches, managers, they can only do so much. We're the ones playing, we're the ones who have to go out and execute."
Sunday the Reds beat the Chicago Cubs 3-0 in 10 innings at Wrigley Field, finishing the season 77-85.
Pick a direction
During Benavides' pregame media session in his Wrigley Field office Sunday morning, the team's interim manager uttered a combination of words not heard in a while out of a Reds manager: "productive outs."
Benavides was answering a question about the improvements that need to be made by the Reds hitters and talked about cutting down strikeouts, putting the ball in play, sacrifice bunts and the aforementioned productive outs.
Nick Krall, the Reds president of baseball operations, said in the wake of Bell's firing the two had "philosophical differences."
Whatever that philosophy is from the Reds front office, it will need to find a manager whose philosophy aligns with theirs.
Completely changing the style of a team cannot be done quickly, especially for a franchise that has prioritized drafting and developing talent as opposed to the large-market teams that can simply use their checkbooks to remake their teams.
The Reds have already codified their approach to pitching, with big-league pitching coach Derek Johnson also serving the role of pitching coordinator. Having Johnson overseeing the organization's pitching has been helpful by keeping the messaging and terminology consistent from the lowest level in the Dominican Republic through the big leagues. Johnson is under contract for next season and will return, Krall said.
What has been less successful for Reds pitchers is staying on the field. Hunter Greene , Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott , the team's top three returning starters, all spent time on the injured list this year, with Lodolo and Abbott ending the season there.
"It's hard to imagine a scenario where we're playing really meaningful games deep into October without those guys being healthy," Reds backup catcher Luke Maile said.
Offensive philosophies can vary from hitter to hitter, but an organization can emphasize what it values in its players' performance in the minor leagues.
Even under Bell, the Reds had three hitting coaches, each serving in the role for two years starting with Turner Ward, followed by Alan Zinter and finally Joel McKeithan.
The offensive issues weren't confined to the plate. The Reds led the majors in outs on the bases but were also second in FanGraphs' base-running runs above average.
Much like hitting approaches, the best way to get better defense is to get better fielders. Still, the team's defense was among the worst in baseball by nearly any metric, traditional or advanced. That too must be addressed system-wide.
Identify a core
The Reds' last run of sustained success started in 2010 and the team made three playoff appearances in four years. The one year from 2010 to 2013 that Dusty Baker's team didn't make the playoffs was 2011, the year after it won the National League Central.
The 2011 Reds went 79-83, and after the season then-general manager Walt Jocketty made a big trade to help the team's rotation, acquiring Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres .
The Reds sent two of their top prospects and former first-round picks to the Padres, catcher Yasmani Grandal and first baseman Yonder Alonso. The Reds used their strength at those two positions to allow them to get Latos. Alonso, of course, was blocked by Joey Votto. Grandal was one of two top catching prospects the team had at the time, and it kept Devin Mesoraco, who would earn an All-Star appearance before injuries ended his career.
Latos was 14-4 with a 3.48 ERA in 2012, and the Reds rotation was a strength. That also allowed them to move starter Travis Wood to the Cubs for Sean Marshall to serve as the primary setup man for Aroldis Chapman out of the bullpen.
Being able to make big moves, like the team would do two years later when it used its shortstop depth to get outfielder Shin-Soo Choo in a three-team deal, starts with self-scouting. If the Reds are going to make the moves to compete in the immediate future, they need to know what they have and what they can afford to lose.
The team has just one player, Greene, signed to a contract beyond the 2026 season. Other than that, most of its players are either in the arbitration process or have yet to reach arbitration.
As far as the young players who did live up to expectations, Greene would be at the top of the list. The 25-year-old had the best season of his career to date, finishing 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts. He set career bests in wins, ERA, starts and innings pitched (150 1/3) and made his first All-Star team. He will likely garner Cy Young Award votes and is under contract through 2028.
Though Lodolo had four trips to the IL, he did pitch a career-best 115 1/3 innings. Last year's first-round pick, Rhett Lowder , made it through the team's minor-league system to the big leagues in one year.
The team's strength — or glut, depending on your perspective — is in the infield. The one question about the future of the team's infield is De La Cruz, who like Greene, made his first All-Star appearance this season.
De La Cruz didn't stop at the All-Star break. He finished the season as the Reds' best player, will likely finish in the top 10 in National League Most Valuable Player voting and played in a team-high 160 games in his first full season in the big leagues.
De La Cruz finished the season hitting .259/.339/.469 with 25 home runs, 76 RBIs, 105 runs scored and 69 stolen bases. He topped his season off with a two-run triple in the 10th inning to give the Reds their final victory of the season and the first for Benavides, who took over the team Tuesday.
The 22-year-old De La Cruz finished with 218 strikeouts, the fourth most in major-league history. He also finished the season with an MLB -high 29 errors, the same number Barry Larkin had in 1988, his first All-Star season. Larkin would go on to win three Gold Gloves and be inducted into the Hall of Fame as one of the game's great all-around players.
For as many infielders as the Reds have on their roster, De La Cruz is the only one who, health willing, should be inked into next year's Opening Day starting lineup.
Of the starting nine, maybe only De La Cruz, Greene and catcher Tyler Stephenson are locks to be in the lineup against the San Francisco Giants on March 27.
Stephenson, 28, is coming off of his best season as a big leaguer. Stephenson finished the season hitting .258/.338/.444 with 19 home runs and 66 RBIs. He also was one of just six catchers in the big leagues to log 1,000 innings behind the plate, reaching that number on the nose Saturday and then adding one more Sunday to finish at 1,001 on the season.
On Opening Day of this season, Stephenson batted ninth in what was expected to be a potent Reds lineup. He hit third in the lineup for most of the final six weeks of the season.
After those three, the Reds can't afford to hand out any other starting jobs without competition. McLain hasn't been healthy, Christian Encarnacion-Strand was hurt most of the season and hit just .190 in the 29 games he did play in, and then there was Noelvi Marte , whose season ended only slightly better than it started.
The 22-year-old Marte was suspended 80 games to begin the season after a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs and struggled once he returned. Marte hit just .210/.248/.301 in 66 games and committed 12 errors over that span. Sunday, in his final appearance on the field in 2024, he was picked off of second base as the extra runner in the 10th inning.
None of those players is a finished product. And though there were players like Will Benson , Encarnacion-Strand and Marte who took steps back in their second season, they can still improve.
The Reds farm system was stronger in the lower levels, as evidenced by its two Class-A teams making the playoffs and its Double-A and Triple-A teams having losing records.
To make a move next season, the Reds will need to see progress from all of its players, not just the youngest ones.
Benavides was in the Reds' player development department in 2012 after their disappointing 2011 season and saw the makings of the 2012 team that might have been the best team in baseball that year.
"It was more businesslike (in 2012)," Benavides recalled. "From being there in spring training, it seemed like the veterans and everyone kind of came together and they played really well."
Supplement the core
The one thing the Reds can't do this winter is run it back with the same flawed team it put on the field this year.
The Reds will have a new manager, a new voice and some new ideas. That all comes with a new regime. But the changes can't be limited to the manager's office and coaching staff.
The biggest need? A left-handed outfield bat. Finding one of those is easier said than done.
Sure, Juan Soto would be a monster at Great American Ball Park, but that's a pipe dream. Free agency also features Cody Bellinger , Michael Conforto and the switch-hitting Anthony Santander . Beyond that? There's no no-doubt bat that would immediately step in.
Because of the lack of free agents, the Reds will also have to look at the trade market, perhaps sacrificing some of the prospect depth they've built up to improve the team in the immediate future.
The team also needs at least one more veteran starting pitcher, perhaps a guy like Nick Martinez . Martinez can opt out of the remaining year and $12 million left on his contract to test the free-agency market again this offseason. Based on his 2024 performance with the Reds, he should make more than the two-year, $26 million contract he received from Cincinnati last winter.
Adding veteran starters isn't the easiest thing to do. The Reds signed Martinez and Frankie Montas last offseason. Both were beloved in the team's clubhouse and logged innings for the team, but Montas was 4-8 with a 5.01 ERA in 19 starts for the Reds before he was traded to Milwaukee.
Every team needs to add to its bullpen, and the Reds are no different. The team has a closer, Alexis Díaz , but he also took a step back from his All-Star season in 2023. The Reds could use at least one more — if not multiple — power arms out of the bullpen, but who couldn't?
Despite the issues of the 2024 team, the Reds aren't hopeless. The fact Bell was fired showed the team had higher expectations, and if it doesn't reach those expectations, 2026's changes could go much deeper.
"It is a win-now roster," Stephenson said. "Whatever moves they make, whoever is going to be coaching us, we've got to be able to win early next year. We know we're a better team and there's no reason that we shouldn't be in the playoffs."
(Photo of Nico Hoerner and Jonathan India: Nuccio DiNuzzo / )
