Re-Grading Alexis Lafreniere and the 1st Overall Picks of the Last 10 NHL Drafts

New York Rangers forward Alexis Lafreniere recently signed a pretty hefty extension and, as has been the case for most of his career, debate over whether he was worth being the first overall pick continues. It's a conversation that happens for just about every first overall draft pick who isn't considered a "generational" player—think Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, potentially Connor Bedard—and a conversation that requires way more nuance than the internet is willing to give it.

Whether an NHL draft pick is "good" depends on so many variables that an organization can't control for when they're making that pick, because those variables come into play after the fact. Injury, development environment, coaching choices—and then you're judging with the benefit of hindsight.

Yes, he's injured. Yes, this pick is the most recent, so this slide is also going to be the shortest. But in all sincerity: this pick is going to age very well.

Celebrini brings both maturity and skill to the table, and with the San Jose Sharks being smack into the brutal middle of a rebuild, that's going to be necessary. It's a bit reminiscent of the Jonathan Toews pick for the Chicago Blackhawks during the early aughts rebuild there—highly skilled two-way NCAA center with poise who can also bring the scoring. Although, and no one get upset with me for saying this, I think Celebrini is going to be a better scorer at the NHL level than Toews was.

Choosing Connor Bedard first overall in 2023 was one of the biggest gimmes in NHL draft history. Thankfully (depending on who you ask, of course), the Chicago Blackhawks didn't galaxy-brain the pick, and found themselves a new franchise center to replace the outgoing Toews.

The plays Bedard can pull off, and the way he accomplishes them, were NHL-calibre long before he was drafted, and he was among the best players in the league the second he stepped foot on professional ice for the first time. He won the Calder trophy, and rightfully so, as the best rookie in the NHL despite missing significant time due to a broken jaw. He may have finished his first season with 61 points, but we expect to see that total rise—and keep rising throughout his career.

Juraj Slafkosvky is a very good player, but he also benefited quite a bit from the crashing public opinion of Shane Wright during their draft season. That's no slight on him, but it is the truth. EliteProspects had Slafkovsky ranked third overall in their draft guide, and that feels about right. The Montreal Canadiens, however, had other plans, feeling that the large and skilled winger was the right choice for them.

Slafkovsky is on a good trajectory to take a step forward this season offensively. He finished last year with 50 points in 82 games; this year he's currently on pace for 69, as he's started the season with 7 points in his first 8. His play without the puck has improved; if his skating does, we'll probably see his overall game move to another level.

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately: this pick gets the grade it does not because of anything about Owen Power himself, but because Matty Beniers is simply that good. Are we disappointed that Beniers didn't go first overall on a high level? Yes. Are we glad that Beniers ended up in Seattle, because the pairing of exciting young forward and brand new franchise feels meant to be? Also yes.

That being said, Power probably wouldn't drop any further than second for us. There are good players throughout the 2021 first round, but none of them outside of Beniers would've ranked above Power.

Alexis Lafreniere, like many other exceptional status CHL players, came into his draft year with high expectations and a lot of pressure. To say his start was rough was an understatement. It didn't help matters that he lost part of his draft season to the COVID-19 pandemic (though the loss of playing time for Lafreniere was not as significant as it would be for OHL or WHL players in the 2021 draft class) and kicked off his NHL career in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. Talk of Lafreniere being a bust was popular, particularly given that he didn't crack 40 points in any of his first NHL seasons.

But perception from teammates remained good, with talk of how Lafreniere was great in the room, a hard worker with a good attitude. And last season that hard work really started to tangibly pay off, culminating in a 57 point (and 28 goal) season and a 7-year extension with an average annual value of $7.45 million. So is Lafreniere still the best option for first overall in 2020?

Well, not exactly! With the benefit of hindsight, most of us probably would draft Ottawa Senators forward Tim Stutzle first overall instead. Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond is also an appealing option. For that, the Lafreniere pick gets knocked down a little. But far less than many people would've had it a year or two ago.

The Jack Hughes pick cannot be graded anything other than an A. Sure, the Devils haven't won a Cup yet (that's not his fault). Sure, he might get injured by a mild gust of wind (who among us doesn't?). But while an attempt was made at the time to manufacture a rivalry narrative between Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, Hughes was always going to be the clear winner. His hockey sense alone was next level.

At the end of the day Hughes is a phenomenal player of the variety that elevates the play of those around him. That's exactly the kind of player you need for future success, which was exactly what the Devils were hoping for when they drafted him—and still are.

Rasmus Dahlin is a great player. It's not his fault he had the bad luck of being drafted in the same year as Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk and, most importantly, Quinn Hughes. This grade is zero shade to Dahlin and all credit to the players chosen behind him, because, potentially controversial statement: Quinn Hughes should've gone first overall.

This draft is, in fact, the only one on this list where I will make that argument from a place other than hindsight. A lot of us knew even early in the 2017-18 season that Hughes would be the player that he is today, just like we also knew that he would fall down the rankings due to his size. Perhaps scouts will take this as a sign that we stop underrating players for that reason?

There is literally nothing wrong with the Sabres' captain, and if Hughes wasn't an option I would certainly pick Dahlin. But Hughes won the Norris last year for a reason, and I feel confident in saying it's only the first he'll win in his career.

Though there were quite a few good players in the first round in 2017, Nico Hischier is absolutely still the best player from that draft. Sadly, we'll never know what second overall pick Nolan Patrick could've been were it not for his concussions and chronic migraines; Nick Suzuki is closing in on Hischier in my personal opinion, but hasn't caught him yet.

Hischier's separating factor was, and still is, his intelligence. You'll rarely find him making the stupid choice at either end of the ice. On top of that, the quickness in his skating allows him to separate himself from opponents—opponents that are going to be regretting going up against him for years to come.

This pick only has a minus attached to the A-grade because of the career Matthew Tkachuk has carved out for himself. You could make an argument for Tkachuk over Matthews in hindsight, but once again—that's with quite a bit of information we didn't have at the time the pick was being made, and all circumstances are not created equal. Tkachuk's talent and leadership are appealing to any team, but there was no universe in which any of us could predict the Flames trading him to Florida and him winning the Cup two seasons later.

At the end of the day, Matthews is scoring goals at a better pace than Ovechkin at the same age. Even if the Leafs never win the Cup during his tenure as captain, there's no universe in which this pick turns out looking bad.

Given the Edmonton Oilers' allergy to success, though, there's probably a tiny part of McDavid that still feels the same way inside as he did the night of the 2015 draft lottery when his life flashed before his eyes. Especially after Jack Eichel won a Cup first (none of us saw that coming, but to be fair, how could we have predicted he'd get traded to a team that didn't exist yet?).