Republican operatives sense opening with key Democratic bloc

Mary Ellen McIntire | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — Republicans are hopeful that former President Donald Trump's increasing strength with Hispanic voters could help flip crucial House seats that may determine which party controls the chamber next year.

Recent polls show Trump with more support among Latino voters than he has had in past elections. And a New York Times/Siena College poll released this past weekend found Vice President Kamala Harris faring worse with likely Latino voters compared to Democratic candidates in the last three cycles.

That could affect the congressional map. A handful of seats the GOP is seeking to flip have a slightly higher share of Hispanic eligible voters than the national average, which the Pew Research Center predicts is 14.7%. Those districts include Virginia's 7th, Pennsylvania's 7th, New York's 18th and Connecticut's 5th, according to a National Republican Congressional Committee internal data analysis shared with Roll Call.

"Safe neighborhoods, a secure border and an affordable quality of life: voters of all walks of life want the same things for their community, regardless of heritage. It's why Hispanic voters say they're not going to give extreme Democrats another chance after the Harris-Biden administration sank their hopes of achieving the American Dream," Will Reinert, national press secretary for the NRCC, said in a statement.

The party is also defending several seats with slightly higher than average Hispanic shares in states like New York, Colorado and Arizona. That's in addition to battles it is waging in traditional Hispanic strongholds in Texas and elsewhere.

Daniel Garza, president of LIBRE Initiative Action, an arm of Americans for Prosperity, said inflation is a top priority for Latino voters and that Republicans are taking an opportunity to pick up that voting bloc as the cost of living has increased.

"In general, in poll after poll, it is inflation that is the highest priority for the Latino community as a bloc," Garza said. "It's going to take a small number of votes. So if you can identify what are the priorities, the issues for the independents, then I think you're way ahead."

Latino voters may also find they're more aligned with Republicans on issues like school choice and "woke culture," he said.

A September NBC News-Telemundo-CNBC poll of Hispanic or Latino voters found that 40% of registered voters would vote for Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, while 54% said they would vote for Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The New York Times poll released Sunday found that 56% of the Hispanic likely electorate would support Harris, while 37% would support Trump.

A BSP Research poll for the Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory Foundation released Tuesday found pocketbook issues were the top issues for Latino voters. The poll found Harris with a 25-point lead in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.

In Virginia's 7th District, which is open because Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for governor in 2025, Hispanic voters are "affected deeply by the issues" that Republican Derrick Anderson is focused on, said Diego de la Peña, the Anderson campaign manager. The NRCC data shows that 15.3% of people of voting age in the district are Hispanic.

"We've specifically focused on outreach to Hispanic small businesses and their customers that are getting clobbered by the same high-cost policies that Yevgeny Vindman would continue. The sad reality is that all voters — regardless of background or ethnicity, are hurt badly by Vindman-style policies," he said in a statement, using Vindman's legal first name. (Vindman is listed in campaign literature and refers to himself as Eugene.) "We're also seeing strong support for addressing high costs from 7th District Hispanics, but we're also seeing the same thing from everyone. People are just sick of paying so much money to survive."

Arnaud Armstrong, a spokesperson for Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who is challenging Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th District, said the cost issues affecting all voters are disproportionately affecting the Latino population in Allentown. The cost of housing, especially, has been tough for the Latino population there and in Bethlehem. The Hispanic share of voting-age people in the district is 16.2 percent, according to NRCC data.

"It's not as though we have to do anything dramatically different to reach this population this year," Armstrong said. "The voters in Allentown have a lot of the same concerns as white working class voters in Carbon County."

Both campaigns are targeting Latino voters right now, but he said the Mackenzie campaign was "very hopeful" the split this year would be more favorable to Republicans.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to highlight the price of prescription drugs.

"Latinos, like all Americans, are concerned with the rising cost of living. While House Democrats worked tirelessly to lower the costs of prescription medications, MAGA Republicans haven't been shy about their desire to repeal these caps and raise health care costs," DCCC spokesperson José Muñoz said in a Tuesday statement.

A coalition of left-leaning climate and Latino groups, including Climate Power, America's Voice, People's Action, the Latino Victory Project and Poder Latinx, last week announced a six-figure ad campaign across Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina targeting Latino voters with a focus on Project 2025, a series of proposals from the conservative Heritage Foundation from which Trump has tried to distance himself. Still, Democrats have sought to tie Republican candidates to the plan.

Laura Rodríguez, vice president for government affairs at the left-leaning Center for American Progress Action, said on a press call last week that there was a gender divide among Latino voters this year, with men appearing more likely to support Trump than women are. With so many key House races this year in New York and California, in addition to polling in swing states that shows Democratic Senate candidates leading their Republican opponents by greater margins than Harris is leading Trump, Latino support for Trump may not necessarily translate down-ballot, she said.

"There's going to be a lot of ticket splitting," she said. "A lot of Latino voters are independent. They're not registering with either party because they want to vote for the person they think is going to be best for them, so I think you have to watch that. They're a very unique voting bloc."