Republicans halt Johnson County’s blue shift in state races. Local contests are different

As Kansas Republicans delivered their closing pitch to Johnson County voters at an Overland Park rally on Saturday, state Rep. Sean Tarwater stressed the importance of maintaining the party's supermajority in the Legislature while Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly remains in office.

"We did a lot of great things" despite Kelly, the Stilwell lawmaker said. "We want to keep doing that."

Republicans went on to flip two Kansas House seats in Johnson County. The party kept the supermajority, allowing GOP lawmakers to continue overriding Kelly's vetoes for the next two years.

At the same time, Democratic U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids cruised to reelection , winning a fourth term. Democrats won Johnson County sheriff for the first time in nearly a century. And Charlotte O'Hara, a conservative Johnson County commissioner, lost her race for reelection.

Johnson County voters delivered a mixed bag for both parties in the election. Republicans and Democrats experienced successes – and failures – in Tuesday's results.

After Johnson County began shifting toward Democrats more than a decade ago, the party this year continued to make inroads in local offices, including some that are officially non-partisan. Davids also won 55% of the vote in the county, down only a single percentage point from 2022. And Vice President Kamala Harris received 52%, even as President-elect Donald Trump easily won Kansas and the nation.

But Republicans successfully resisted an intense Democratic effort to target the legislative supermajority – and instead won back two House seats in Olathe. The victories surprised and disappointed Democrats, who had bet that turning red seats blue in Johnson County would break the two-thirds majority in the House and possibly the Senate.

The 2024 election could have solidified Johnson County as a Democratic stronghold, said Cole Robinson, executive director of the Johnson County Democratic Party. Instead, the growing and affluent area will remain a "hotly contested battleground" in the future.

"These county commission candidates and obviously Rep. Davids, as well as VP Harris, they were performing well," Robinson said. "We just fell off the map with the Leg. races and then we'd get down to the local races and then perform really strongly again."

GOP gains

The results complicate what had been a story of steady progress for Democrats in Johnson County over the past decade.

Trump won the county as recently as 2016 but Biden won in 2020. Long gone are the days of Republican Mitt Romney, who won 58% of the vote in 2012.

Ten years ago, Republicans held more than 20 House seats in Johnson County. In this year's election they won a dozen, according to unofficial results . Still, Democrats had hoped to press their advantage.

Maria Holiday, chair of the Johnson County Republican Party, said Democratic messaging that cast Republicans as extremists on issues such as reproductive rights fell flat with voters.

"Sometimes, when they just tell out and out fabrications, which they did over and over in several of their attack ads — they just lie and that becomes obvious," Holiday said. "It reeks of desperation."

Johnson County Republicans benefited from a national political environment that had turned tough for Democrats. Lingering anger over inflation and high prices along with a last-minute presidential nominee switch undercut voter enthusiasm for Democrats.

While Johnson County voters remained reluctant to cast a ballot for Trump – and his chaotic and grievance-driven style of leadership – they appeared more willing to channel their frustrations into down-ballot state legislative races.

"Obviously, taxes," Charlotte Esau, an Olathe Republican who defeated Democratic incumbent state Rep. Dennis Miller, summing up what drove GOP successes.

"It's what everyone cares about. Having good policy that helps our economy," Esau said. "That's really what we were hearing at the doors. We knocked on thousands of doors, and the people just want to be heard."

State Rep. Bill Sutton, a Gardner Republican who ran unopposed but aided other area candidates, said having Harris at the top of the ticket probably hurt Democrats more than Trump hurt Republicans. He predicted Democrats had reached a high water mark of success in Johnson County and that Republicans were "coming back."

"I think the Republican message is permeating a lot better now after we've seen some results of the inflation and high grocery prices and such," Sutton said.

Presidential elections are "always rough," said state Rep. Stephanie Clayton, an Overland Park Democrat, "because you can do everything right in a campaign and then be sort of at the mercy of the national narrative."

Clayton, who has been in the House since 2013, embodies the changing makeup of Johnson County. She first won election as a moderate Republican but switched parties in 2018.

"I do see a path forward for future days," Clayton said, adding that she expects Democrats to make gains in the House in 2026. Trump will have been in office for two years "there are a lot of people in Johnson County who oppose Trump," she said.

'Limit for extremism'

Michael Poppa, the executive director of the Mainstream Coalition, which seeks to counter ideological extremism in Johnson County and surrounding areas, said the presidential race had a greater effect on state legislative races than contests for local offices.

Republican candidates for the Legislature often echoed some of the same themes promoted by Trump and national Republicans. They pointed to a ban on transgender athletes in girls' sports, passed over Kelly's veto. And they attempted to paint the governor as intransigent on tax cuts (Kelly signed a tax cuts bill into law this year after vetoing earlier proposals she called too expensive).

But in races for local office, candidates were sometimes able to sidestep those divisive fights. These races – such as the contest for sheriff between Republican Doug Bedford and Democrat Byron Roberson – turned less on partisan ideology than the meat-and-potatoes work of governing.

"I think people do recognize that there's a limit for extremism in Johnson County and we saw that in the primary election results this year and that carried through to the general," Poppa said.

Johnson County Board of Commission Chairman Mike Kelly said Roberson distinguished himself well from Hayden and Bedford, putting an emphasis on issues such as mental health, police de-escalation practices and increased collaboration across law enforcement agencies.

"Those are things that better reflect the values of Johnson County, and he was explicit about those. And I think because of that, he was able to garner a little bit more support that put him over the edge," Kelly said.

Bedford, a former Johnson County undersheriff who had worked with Sheriff Calvin Hayden, challenged him in the Republican primary after Hayden spent years conducting an investigation into the county's elections that helped fuel baseless conspiracy theories. Bedford defeated Hayden in August but lost to Roberson , the current police chief in Prairie Village, on Tuesday.

Hayden took an at times overtly political approach to the office, speaking to Republican and conservative groups, and clashing with the Johnson County Commission.

Hayden's ouster this year laid bare a rift between more moderate and conservative Johnson County Republicans. It is unclear whether or to what extent the sheriff's style soured some voters on Republican leadership.

But on Election Day, Bedford said he believes that "could be a possibility."

"In a few weeks, we will know more than what we know tonight," Bedford said. "But the fact that District Attorney Steve Howe was able to come out victorious, representing law and order, but we came up a little bit short. I can only speculate."

Howe, the Republican incumbent prosecutor, won reelection with just over 50% of the vote. He fended off a challenge from Democrat Vanessa Riebli, in a bright spot for Republicans in local Johnson County races. Still, the gap between Howe and Riebli was narrower than the district attorney's last contest. In 2020, Howe defeated Democratic challenger Zach Thomas, 51.7% to 48.16%.

The campaign between Bedford and Roberson focused primarily on challenges surrounding policing and law enforcement. Combating fentanyl and mental health services in the county's jails were key issues.

"At the end of the day, that is a race that gives me a lot of hope," Robinson said. "That will be a message that I take back to the Johnson County Democratic Party and Democrats in Johnson County is that I do think we still have some building blocks that show that we did make progress this cycle. It's just devastating to lose so many races."

Conservative commissioner loses

In the battle over the Johnson County Commission, Julie Brewer, a longtime affordable housing advocate, defeated O'Hara , 53% to 47%. While the county commission races are non-partisan, the contests in many instances are effectively Republican vs. Democrat – or conservative vs. moderate or liberal – contests.

Brewer, who hasn't previously held office, promised an approach that prized data over politics. She will represent the county's 3rd District, which includes the southeast portion of the county.

Two moderate commissioners also held onto their seats. Jeff Meyer and Shirley Allenbrand both won reelection by defeating more conservative challengers.

Allenbrand won by 1,870 votes and a margin of 52% on Tuesday, beating challenger Mike Storm after the two were the top performers in a three-way August primary. A Johnson County business owner, Storm called for extreme changes to local government to include the elimination or privatization of the county's mental health center.

Allenbrand, a lifelong moderate Republican, switched her affiliation to Democrat this year after a strained relationship with the local GOP. She has been critical of political cartoons and messages shared about her and fellow commissioners.

Overall, she thinks Johnson Countians have shown they want less partisanship in local matters.

"I think people were tired of it. I think they're tired of hearing it," she said.

O'Hara, who lost to Brewer by roughly 3,600 votes in her campaign for a second term, said every state level race in her district except one went to Republicans. She believes the absence of her party affiliation on the ticket, plus support of her opponent from a local political action committee formed by Chairman Kelly, harmed her chances.

"I think there was a lot of straight-line Republican voting this year," O'Hara said, also noting the tight margins in the sheriff's and district attorney's races. "On the D.A. and the sheriff, I can't explain that one."

Despite conservative losses in local races, Johnson County Republicans plan to target those contests in the future.

Holiday, the county GOP party chair, said she believes Republicans would make more gains at the county level if commission races weren't non-partisan.

"People are looking for honesty, and I think that's one of the things that we will be strategizing and attacking next in Johnson County," Holiday said. "Democrats have used the 'nonpartisan' label to get ahead, and I'm coming for that."