Robinson scandal may have wide reach

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INSIDE: A look at the allegations against Robinson, A4

TRIAD — The political controversy engulfing GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson this week could have a ripple effect on other general election races this fall, an area political analyst said.

Robinson and the N.C. Republican Party were scrambling to respond to a CNN story released late Thursday afternoon chronicling chat posts traced to Robinson more than 10 years ago. The chat posts included references to Robinson calling himself a Black Nazi, wishing that he could have owned slaves, comparing Adolph Hitler favorably over former president Barack Obama and making salacious sexual comments in a porn chatroom.

Robinson has rejected the CNN report as false and says he will stay in the race against Democrat Josh Stein.

The controversy raises the possibility of impacting voter turnout in the presidential race and other down-ballot contests, said Brandon Lenoir, associate professor of political science and strategic communication at High Point University.

"If a top-of-the-ticket race is in turmoil, it may demotivate Republican voters from turning out and have a trickle-down effect on other races," Lenoir told The High Point Enterprise.

Also, GOP candidates in North Carolina will be pressed to react to the Robinson controversy at the political expense of losing focus on their own campaign issues, Lenoir said.

Meanwhile, a recent report from the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation finds that no local N.C. General Assembly contests are expected to be competitive in the fall general election, though the report was issued earlier this month before the Robinson controversy surfaced.

The redistricting of legislative lines by Republicans has left no districts in the greater High Point area competitive and relatively few statewide as even-handed, said John Dinan, professor of political science at Wake Forest University.

The N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation study is based on outcomes of recent elections. The report categorizes nine area legislative races as safe for Republicans and two as safe for Democrats.

The Republican districts are:

• The 30th Senate District covering all of Davidson and Davie counties. Sen. Steve Jarvis, R-Davidson, takes on Democrat Tina Royal and Libertarian Daniel Cavender.

• The 26th Senate District that covers parts of northern and eastern High Point, Jamestown and southwestern Guilford County. Sen. Phil Berger Sr., R-Rockingham and Senate president pro tem, squares off against Democrat Steve Luking.

• The 29th Senate District that covers northwestern Randolph County. Sen. Dave Craven, R-Randolph, faces Democrat Kevin Clark.

• The 25th Senate District covering north-central and northeastern Randolph County as well as all of Alamance County. Sen. Amy Galey, R-Alamance, takes on Democrat Donna Vanhook.

• The 80th House District covering eastern Davidson County. Rep. Sam Watford, R-Davidson, squares off against Democrat Kimberly Titlebaum.

• The 81st House District covering western Davidson County. Rep. Larry Potts, R-Davidson, takes on Democrat Pamela McAfee.

• The 70th House District that covers northwestern Randolph County. Rep. Brian Biggs, R-Randolph, faces Democrat Susie Scott.

• The 62nd House District that covers northern High Point and southwestern Guilford County. In a race for an open seat, Republican John Blust takes on Democrat Marjorie Benbow.

• The 59th House District that covers eastern High Point and Jamestown. Rep. Alan Branson, R-Guilford, faces Democratic challenger Tanneshia Dukes.

The Democratic districts are:

• The 27th Senate District covering most of High Point. Sen. Michael Garrett, D-Guilford, takes on Republican Paul Schumacher.

• The 60th House District covering most of High Point. Rep. Cecil Brockman, D-Guilford, squares off against Republican Joseph Perrotta.

Statewide, relatively few legislative districts are competitive based on the way that Republicans redrew district lines using population shifts detailed by the latest U.S. census. There are 10 competitive districts in the 120-member House and three competitive districts in the 50-member Senate, according to the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation.

Republicans have just enough members in both chambers — 72 in the House, 30 in the Senate — to override vetoes by the governor. Democrats would need to win four out of 10 competitive House races and two out of three competitive Senate contests to break supermajorities in both chambers. Election Day is Nov. 5.

Barring a wave election, Dinan said it's unlikely Piedmont Triad voters will have a role in deciding the fate of the Republican legislative supermajority.

"It may well be that some Triad-area districts that are now seen as uncompetitive could become competitive by November," Dinan told The Enterprise. "For now, though, the legislative races to watch are primarily found in other areas of the state."