Rutherford: What I know and what I think about the Blues after 20 games
Well, St. Louis Blues fans, what’s it like watching a team in a retool?
This is the first time you’ve had to do this in more than a decade. (The 2022-23 season doesn’t count. The club went into the year with significant hope and everything unraveled. So this is the first full season with lowered expectations.)
After eight games, it seemed like you were all ready to write off the Blues, but then they won five of their next six and reeled you in again. There have been drastic ebbs and flows along the way, with wins over Stanley Cup contenders (the Colorado Avalanche ) and defeats at the hands of draft lottery candidates (the San Jose Sharks ), and after 20 games, their overall record is 11-8-1.
That’s good for 23 points (.575 points percentage) and the first wildcard position in the Western Conference playoff picture.
Be honest: Would you have taken that position if someone had offered it at the start of the season?
The Blues probably would have, even though coach Craig Berube realizes that the inconsistency of the team has been nauseating.
“I think we’ve done some real good things,” he said recently. “But I think night in and night out, giving ourselves an opportunity to win the game, (will be important to figure out). There’s been some games where I think we didn’t have that consistency.”
Through the first 20 games, the Blues haven’t won more than three games consecutively, but they also haven’t lost more than two in a row. So while there have been dismal efforts, there’s eventually been a recovery.
“I’m seeing a better response from game to game, which is good,” Berube said. “It’s just don’t beat ourselves more than anything. Go into the games and do the right things on a consistent basis — individuals and as a team — and give ourselves the best chances to win a game.”
With a 4-2 victory over Chicago on Sunday, the team picked up its third win in its past four games and won its third straight game on the road, improving to 5-5-1 away from Enterprise Center. The Blues will wrap up their two-game road trip Tuesday in Minnesota, which has dropped seven straight games (0-5-2).
With the stop in Minnesota being the second leg of the teams’ dads trip, on which the Blues have a record of 8-1-1 since its inception, they’ll like their chances even better.
Make that 8-1-1 for the dads. BLUES (and Blues Dads) WIN!!!!!!! #stlblues pic.twitter.com/dm5SXo7FeK— St. Louis Blues November 26, 2023
What else have we learned about this team at the quarter mark? Here’s what I think and what I know regarding seven of the major storylines this season.
Jake Neighbours’ breakout
What I know: Jake Neighbours is having a heck of a season. He scored twice in Sunday’s win over Chicago, giving him five goals in his past five games and seven overall. The 21-year-old started the season on the fourth line, and through his hard work, has been promoted to the top line with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas . It’s not just the scoring separating Neighbours, either. He had four hits, two blocked shots and one takeaway Sunday, showing off his all-around game.
What I think: I was surprised when Neighbours began the year on the fourth line and Berube labeled him an “identity” player. I get it — Sammy Blais had a nice scoring touch last year, and the Blues wanted to squeeze him into the top nine. But in watching Neighbours play for a few years now, he should be a middle-six player in the league for a long time. But at the moment, with the way that Neighbours is producing on the top line, he should stay put until he shows he can’t do it.
No one is having more fun right now than Ed Neighbours. #stlblues pic.twitter.com/qUNKsyriQ3— St. Louis Blues November 26, 2023
What to make of Jordan Kyrou ?
What I know: Jordan Kyrou scored 37 goals last season, and with four goals in 20 games this season, he’s on pace for 16. He was a minus-38 last year, and as a minus-4 this year, he projects to be a minus-16. He started the season putting more emphasis on his defensive responsibilities, and as his plus-minus suggests, there has been some improvement. But there are still too many lapses in the overall game, and now his lack of scoring production has led to a demotion to the third line.
What I think: A lot of people will disagree, but I truly believe Kyrou can be a star. He’s always going to have warts, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have a huge impact. However, turning 26 years old this season and being in his fourth full season, it’s getting past the point where Kyrou needs to elevate his play on a regular basis. It’s not a good sign that’s been dropped to the third line, but he’s not the first player to go through it. Kyrou’s response to this rut will determine how his career plays out.
Power play improvement?
What I know: When Neighbours scored on the power play in Friday’s loss to Nashville , it marked the Blues’ first power-play goal at home this season. When Buchnevich scored on the power play in Sunday’s win over Chicago, it marked the first time this season the team had scored on the man advantage in back-to-back games. And don’t look now, but the Blues actually have one power-play goal in three of their past four games. But in the big picture, the unit is still just 6-for-61 (9.7 percent).
What I think: After what we’ve watched this season, you’re not going to catch me saying that the Blues’ power play is improving. The numbers don’t lie, and in this case, the numbers don’t paint the whole picture of how ugly it’s been this season. But, but, but ... there’s been some better puck movement lately, and even on the power plays in which they don’t score, the unit isn’t zapping momentum away from the club as it had been. There’s a long, long, long way to go, though.
Does Jakub Vrana fit in?
What I know: After back-to-back healthy scratches and four this season, Vrana got back into the lineup Sunday against Chicago. With the Blues changing up their forward combinations recently, he’s now playing on the second line with captain Brayden Schenn and Kasperi Kapanen , He had a prime scoring chance Sunday, but at the end of the day, he was a minus-2 in 12:53 of ice time. In 16 games this season, he has two goals and six points, including just one goal in his last 13 games.
What I think: This isn’t going to end well for Vrana and the Blues. Yes, he’s got skill, but his talent is scoring when given a good opportunity, and not doing the work to put himself and the team in those positions. When this happens once in a player’s career, it may just be a bad fit. But while he won a Stanley Cup in Washington, this is the third stop, including Detroit , where it hasn’t worked out for him. Vrana is not a Berube-style player, so I see him being moved eventually, if there’s anyone interested.
How the D is shaking out
What I know: Through 20 games, the Blues have carried eight defensemen on the roster, and because the club has been healthy this season, it hasn’t been as difficult as expected. Colton Parayko , Nick Leddy , Torey Krug and Justin Faulk have played in all 20 games, followed by Marco Scandella (19), Scott Perunovich (10), Tyler Tucker (9) and Robert Bortuzzo (4). Not every night has been clean in the Blues’ defensive zone, but considering how poorly they performed on the back end last season, it’s been better.
What I think: To me, unless you’re Perunovich, who waited a while for his first stretch of games, or Bortuzzo, who isn’t a priority to play at this point in his career, the lineup has been handled well. Some fans are going to say that Scandella shouldn’t play regularly, but at five-on-five, he’s been on the ice for 13 goals for and just nine against, and his 46.16 expected goal share is second behind Faulk among defensemen. Perunovich and Tucker are being pushed to play their best, which is a good thing.
Goalie grades
What I know: Despite Jordan Binnington and the Blues giving up an increased number of goals lately, the team’s No. 1 netminder is having a good season. In fact, in the first part of the season, you could say that Binnington was carrying them. But with his save percentage dipping to .909, he does need to be better, so Sunday’s 32-save win over Chicago was a good step. Backup Joel Hofer , with a .905 save percentage, has been a bit more up and down, but that was somewhat expected with the 23-year-old rookie.
What I think: Binnington will be fine, and Hofer will continue to use the season as a learning experience. As long as the lineup in front of the goalies can execute the system the way that it’s meant to be played, keeping shots to the outside, Binnington and Hofer should be able to see most of the attempts. The Blues had gotten a little loose with their five-on-five defensive structure in recent games, but it was improved Sunday, albeit against an inferior Blackhawks team. The goalies, though, won’t be the problem.
How good are Blues?
What I know: This team can compete. You don’t beat Colorado 8-2, along with a couple of other wins, and not have the talent to compete on a nightly basis. That said, we all know that this team can also fail to show up. Whether the Blues need a bounce-back game, or a strong response after a bad period, it hasn’t been there when you need to see it the most. Faulk said recently that the club must be tougher mentally, and he’s not the only one within the locker room who feels that way.
What I think: We’re going to see more of that vulnerability before it gets better. The Blues have played 20 games and come back in a game once — in their 6-5 win over Arizona on Nov. 22. I like the leadership group, but it does say something if they can’t get this club to be ready at the start of games and start of periods. There are too many veterans on this roster to accept the no-show nights with this team. If they can get that straightened out — and that’s a big if — I do believe they can be a playoff team.
Here’s a look at the Blues’ schedule and results through 20 games (road games are shaded in gray).
(Top photo of Jake Neighbours: Jeff Curry / USA Today)
