Sam Liccardo's Polling Shows He Has Solid Double-Digit Lead Over Evan Low

A new poll released this week by the Sam Liccardo congressional campaign shows the former San Jose mayor with a nearly insurmountable 14-point lead over Assemblymember Evan Low, in a survey conducted a month before early voting by mail begins.

The survey of likely voters in California's 16 th Congressional District by RG Strategies on their vote choice in the November general election was conducted from Sept. 4-7 2024, with a sample of 600 likely voters. Voters were contacted using a hybrid approach of text messages, telephone calls, and emails, administered in English. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%.

On the first survey question, Liccardo leads Low 42% to 28%, according to a memo from the pollsters. As voters learned more about both candidates' biographies, accomplishments, and contrasts, Liccardo's vote share increases and his lead over Low jumps to 52% to 24%. Twenty-one percent were completely undecided.

A poll conducted by a different polling firm in June showed Liccardo leading Low by more than 11%, with 39% of the vote, followed by Low with 28%.

According to a Sept. 16 memo on the September poll, "Liccardo shows deep support across ideological and demographic groups," outperforming Low among Democrats, Republicans, and No Party Preference voters. In the polling, Liccardo also tops Low with liberals, moderates, conservatives, and across all ages of voters, including young people under the age of 27.

The former mayor's favorability rating tops Low 40% to 33% in the polls, according to the memo, especially among voters in the City of San Jose, which makes up over 30% of the 16th District.

The Liccardo campaign leads in overall fundraising and cash on hand, according to the most recent FEC reports, and touts endorsements from the Sierra Club, the Latino Victory Fund, Everytown for Gun Safety, J Street and the Northern California Carpenters Regional Council.

In the RG Strategies poll, when prospective voters were asked whom they would vote for Congress based only on name, ballot designation, and party affiliation, 42% of voters say they will vote for Liccardo, with 21% of voters saying they are certain they will vote for him. For Low, 27% say they will vote for him, with 15% of voters saying they are certain they will vote for him.

"Sam Liccardo remains the clear frontrunner for a simple reason: voters know his record of results as the successful Mayor of a major city," the campaign said in a statement.