Scouting notebook: Rashee Rice makes his move, Kyren Williams is still a master of efficiency and more

I’m not giving thanks to NFL football this year. It has nothing to do with being a Jets fan, wise guy/gal. It’s the quality of the play that has me down.

Sunday’s “action” brought the problem into sharp relief. This NFL product is bad this year. Entering the day, we’re down about six points per game from the 2020 peak. It’s also down 60 yards. We had the same yards per pass play as in 1980. Penalties are at a four-year high. Sacks are at a century high. Field goal attempts per game are basically at 1970s levels. Passing TD rates are down 30% from 1965.

There are theories why this isn’t random. Obviously, QB play is generally at a century low point. Offensive line play has deteriorated because this is the first generation of players who really have never played traditional tackle football at any level, including high school. I personally think the coaching is completely uninspired from a tactical standpoint. We only emphasize win probability, but there are very few schematic and design innovations — give me that and I’ll live with you being a dullard on fourth down (cough, Andy Reid).

I’ve always said the ideal interception rate is not zero, so it does not surprise me that interceptions are at a historic per-game low. That’s a bug, not a feature. It’s mostly due to teams throwing over the middle of the field at an all-time low — just seven passes per game per team now, and that’s down 21% from 2013 and nearly 20% from 2020 (short and deep middle, according to Pro-Football Reference). Yes, these are the attempts that have the highest pick risk, but also the highest reward. I watch all the games every week, and looking for a simple crossing pattern is like searching for a unicorn. Those plays have been erased from the Jersey diner menus these coaches use as play sheets while covering their faces.

Okay, Bills vs. Eagles was fun. Maybe it is a QB problem, but you shouldn’t need to have a battle of MVP-caliber QBs to have an entertaining game. The Bills just gave it away. They had so many chances to win. They deserved to win. You go 14-for-23 on third and fourth down, and gain 505 yards, and out-gain the opponent in yards per pass play by 0.6, and win the turnover battle... forget the 127-yard edge from scrimmage, which equals over eight points. It’s just an unfathomable defeat for Buffalo, now way out of playoff seeding.

Josh Allen was amazing, but you’re not winning the MVP at 6-6 after 12 games. I don’t blame him for the interception, which was just a great adjustment by the defense. The defense can win, too. Gabe Davis led the team with targets but just one more than Stefon Diggs (though neither hit 25% market share). A.J. Brown had a TD but did little else for the second-straight week. I’m really liking Bills shares way more than Eagles shares now. Allen was just much better than Jalen Hurts , though it was great to see Hurts seemingly running without any pain/hesitation. (And Hurts played well, to be clear.)

Davis did blow the game when he didn’t look for the ball on a blitz and failed to haul in a game-winning TD in overtime where he was wide open. Just turn around, dude. You see they’re all coming at your QB. But Davis is out there running his route (smh).

Rashee Rice was the story of the Chiefs-Raiders game. He’s always looked the part but he was emphasized for really the first time all year, leading the team in targets and averaging over 10 yards on each of his 10 chances. This has the feeling of a transition game where someone had to take the reigns and Rice stepped up. I can’t see anyone else on this team challenging him now. The absence of Kadarius Toney was a game changer, but Rice has changed things. There’s no going back now.

I don’t think Cooper Kupp was healthy beyond being a decoy. Kyren Williams continued to be a master of efficiency and success rate. His 48.7% success rate leads all backs with at least 100 attempts. And he was 62.6% vs. the Cardinals — (NFL RB average is 39%). Royce Freeman looked great again and his success rate for the season is higher than Williams’. I’m not forgetting Williams’ impact as a receiver, which put him over 200 scrimmage yards.

Marquise Brown is back in the WR2 bucket with 12 targets (27% market share).

Had to root for Tommy DeVito when I found out we get our chicken parms from the same place in Secaucus, NJ (Natoli’s) . Credit to him and the Giants coaches for how well he’s played under these circumstances, as an undrafted player. It was nice to see Jalin Hyatt have a breakout game (57% of passing yards).

The Patriots are just a legacy team now. Bill Belichick has lost it. He has not been able to build a passable offense post-Brady (he never built one pre-Brady, either.) Mac Jones probably isn’t good but as Bill Parcells said, “Player failures are almost always coaching and organization failures.” (He said it to me, so I don’t know if you can look it up.)

I thought Derek Carr was okay given that he was without all three starting receivers for much of the game. But people just hate Carr, who is in the average-to-above-average bucket.

For the Falcons , two touchdowns by Bijan Robinson was great but they seem to view him as a guy who has to be in a committee, like a Jamaal Charles. Why invest all that draft capital into this kind of player? As for our game, Robinson has more value going forward in distance scoring leagues and definitely full-PPR. He’s super talented but is going to be over-drafted in all other formats. I can’t draft someone that I’ll need to be a Jamaal Charles-like master of efficiency.

Now we’re getting into a lot of games that were just tough watches. Cleveland at Denver ? I guess David Njoku is basically the only guy who’ll be targeted by Dorian Thompson-Robinson (can’t hyphenate two names that long, my man). Also, DTR was replaced by injury, not benching. Both QBs in this game had identical 134-yard, 1-TD stat lines. Spider-Man Meme. Snore.

Carolina – Tennessee didn’t have a 200-yard passer, either. The Panthers will have a new coach (probably tomorrow), but the same QB, so the same problems. The owner picked the QB by the way. Add buttinsky owners to the problems plaguing today’s game. I had no idea who even owned the Cowboys in the Tom Landry Era. Now the owners are basically on the cover of the team yearbook. Go. Away. You were just lucky at your one thing.

Pat Freiermuth was big time as the Steelers topped 400 yards for the first time in nearly 60 games, after firing their offensive coordinator. Coaching is a big deal, kids. Najee Harris asserted himself, too, and maybe that’s due to play calling? It’s possible.

Jake Browning was actually better than I thought he’d be and the Bengals scored one TD. It’s so depressing. We had a battle of backup QBs with him and Kenny Pickett .

Mike Evans just delivers. I can’t believe he’s questioned as a Hall of Famer. First ballot for me. He’s done it with so many QBs, and has been so consistent all the way through.

I can’t trash Rachaad White , who actually had a good yards-per-rush day. But upon closer inspection: Success rate was a bad 33.3%. So he was boom or bust and mostly bust. (Okay, maybe I can trash him. Challenge accepted!)

Jonathan Taylor was facing a good run defense but he’s a great back and that’s more predictive than a run defense, typically.

We’re told, “If only (Team X) had Gardner Minshew they’d be a Super Bowl contender!” Has anyone ever been as overrated as Minshew? Last six games: 130-214-1,419-6-7. That’s a 76.5 rating. Zach Wilson ’s rating this year is 73.8. Now give me Minshew’s stats with Nate Hackett and the Jets offensive line. Murder She Wrote.

C.J. Stroud Trevor Lawrence gave us the other really entertaining game of the day. Stroud was better, just more dynamic than Lawrence. More dangerous. But he lost. Lawrence is fine and will have a good career, but Stroud has more upside and is working with less skill talent and also with less experienced coaches (Lawrence is very well supported). I just hate that the Texans traded their first rounder last year but it turned out to be a sound move given their record and at least they have Cleveland’s No. 1 still. The Texans are the next team, the emerging top contender to Patrick Mahomes . Yeah, I know Jacksonville is the No. 1 seed right now. But Lawrence isn’t beating Mahomes or even Josh Allen, and probably not Tua Tagovailoa .

(Photo of Rashee Rice: Jeff Bottari/)