Sean O’Grady: How Trump forced his way back into the White House

Why did Trump win? "The economy, stupid", to use the cliche. If the most lurid claims of his opponents – including Harris – are correct, America is well on its way to electing a man branded by Kamala Harris as a "fascist" to the White House. If democracy itself was on the ballot, then a depressingly large number of Americans chose to reject it.

To be fair, you can see why. The economy was indeed also on the ballot – and the voters answered the question Trump put so often: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" with a devastating "no".

Fairly or otherwise, the Harris campaign had no defence to the inflation of the last few years – and, putting it at its most brutal, gas prices trumped abortion rights. Barack Obama argued that the reason gas prices were so low before was that no one was driving during the pandemic. That was true – and the same goes for energy bills and groceries, but the sense of economic malaise in those "swing states" in the Blue Wall – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – was too deep seated; and their disillusion with the Democrats too deep for Harris to overcome it

The Democrats also underestimated the fear factor over the southern border and immigration. Border czar or not, Harris had to shoulder the blame for that too.

The Harris-Biden administration actually has a strong record on jobs and growth and has got inflation down – but Kamala Harris wasn't able to "sell" it, because the cost of living crisis, including the cost of housing, has been hurting too many Americans.

Trump saw that the economy was the key issue and he pushed it. He had a plan, of sorts, to bring back the jobs and prosperity: protectionism. So did Harris, for investment, but she wasn't able to win the argument. The Trump campaign told lies about flood relief money going to illegal migrants – and Elon Musk didn't exactly contain the tsunami of misinformation on social media, much of it apparently maliciously from abroad; but it was the lived experience of American families that stymied the Democrats.

Maybe, if Harris had had longer to introduce herself to the American people – and Joe Biden had withdrawn earlier – the outcome would have been a little different; but then again maybe Trump wouldn't have made the same progress he has reportedly recently made among younger Black men and Latino voters. Maybe if there'd been time for a proper Democrat race for the nomination, then a stronger candidate without the baggage of the Biden-Harris administration could have prevailed over Trump. It's far from certain though, considering the likely margin of victory and the context of the last few years. The yearning to get Trump back in was strong, and dissatisfaction with Biden's record virtually irrecoverable.

Cast your mind back. After the events of 6 January 2021, the felony conviction and all the other pending legal activity, it felt very much like the Trump era was over. Yet he's now performed the biggest comeback since Lazarus (or at least since Grover Cleveland in 1892). Nor was his campaign particularly edifying – the "jokes" about Puerto Ricans, the "low IQ" jibes at Kamala Harris, the claim that "they're eating the pets" in Springfield, Ohio.

Americans lived through Trump's first term. They know him well – he's been in politics since 2016 and a high-profile celebrity for decades. Harris said early in her campaign that she knew Trump's "type" – well, so do most Americans... and, as it turns out, they don't mind it.

Trump's Republican party – or rather his personal MAGA cult – will also control the Senate and the House of Representatives, given the progress that they have been making. We also know that, as a result of a series of self-interested appointments in his first term to the Supreme Court, he has already even been granted "qualified immunity" from prosecution for acts committed by him that could be construed to be in the course of his executive duties. It feels very much like he'll be able to evade punishment for the various outstanding cases against him.

It won't just be Trump running America, either. We will see Elon Musk ("we have a new star in Elon", Trump claimed in his premature campaign victory speech) and JD Vance stoking the hate. The way will be open for what they call Project 2025, a truly terrifying agenda for an elective dictatorship.