Senators’ inconsistency and defensive issues have them stuck in the middle
Let’s start this week by trying to be positive.
If you’re an Ottawa Senators fan, you’re probably not at the point where you’re firing up the Tankathon website to check draft lottery odds. As underwhelming as this 8-8-0 start has been, at least the Senators aren’t the Edmonton Oilers , San Jose Sharks or Columbus Blue Jackets .
We’re on the verge of hitting December and the Senators’ playoff chances have not been completely submarined. Even after Friday’s loss to the New York Islanders , Dom Luzczyszyn’s model had Ottawa on pace for 91 points with roughly a 38 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. While this might feel like Groundhog Day, it’s a bit different this time around. Ottawa’s playoff chances aren’t hanging by a single strand in the days following U.S. Thanksgiving.
The Senators will open December with seven games in hand on the Tampa Bay Lightning , who are holding down the third playoff spot in the Atlantic Division.
But those games in hand will evaporate rather quickly if the Senators keep playing this unstructured, cavalier style of hockey. And Ottawa’s second-period issues are a microcosm for the issues that plague this team. Consider the distribution of goals against Ottawa broken down by period this season:
Goals AgainstThe Senators have given up as many goals in the second period (27), as they have in the first and third combined. So when we say it feels like Ottawa is stuck in the middle, we might as well be referring to their issues in the second period. The middle frame has tripped this team up on far too many occasions.
If Ottawa had first-period issues, we would chalk it up to a lack of preparedness. If they came unglued in the third period, we’d say they have a lack of killer instinct. But how do you characterize a team that repeatedly shoots itself in the foot in the middle frame?
Entering play Sunday, the only NHL team that had allowed more second-period goals than Ottawa was Montreal . But the Canadiens have given up 29 second-period goals while playing five more games than Ottawa — meaning the Senators can reluctantly take the crown as the worst second-period team in the NHL.
“We got to look and get better in the second period. Whatever it is we’re doing, I don’t really know the answers and I’d have to watch the video,” Drake Batherson said Friday evening. “It’s unacceptable and we got to be better.”
Batherson’s comments came on the heels of another example where Ottawa’s second-period issues were on full display. On Friday evening, the Islanders — who were playing the majority of that game with only four defencemen — managed to score three times in the span of 3:35. Two of those goals came just six seconds apart, an inexcusable lack of focus for a team that had a full six days off to prepare for that game.
And that appears to be the best way to characterize a team that is plagued by second-period issues.
Sloppy.
Inconsistent.
Cavalier.
Go ahead and pick your adjective, but it certainly shouldn’t be a description befitting a playoff-bound team.
This is a team that has far too many lapses in judgment. The Senators have an inability to stay committed and detail-oriented for an entire 60 minutes. And when one goal is scored against them, they have a propensity to let the floodgates open.
Consider how quickly a 4-0 lead evaporated in Stockholm against the Detroit Red Wings . If it wasn’t for Tim Stützle ’s walk-off overtime winner, we’d probably still be dissecting that in-game collapse.
And this is not a new phenomenon. In each of the past five seasons, the Senators yielding goals in bunches has been a common thread. This is just a snapshot of the first 10-15 games in each season since 2019-20, where this has happened on far too many occasions:
Giving up goals in bunches Span of GoalsThis season
vs NYI
vs DET
vs VAN
vs TB
vs LA
vs BUF
vs CAR
vs BUF
vs TOR
vs BOS
vs WAS
vs ARI
vs TB
vs VGK
vs NYR
vs WAS
vs CHI
vs MIN
vs VGK
vs WPG
vs WPG
vs VAN
vs EDM
vs EDM
vs TOR
vs NYR
vs STL
vs ARI
vs DET
vs NYI
This is clearly something the players and coaching staff have highlighted and tried to address.
“There is like a three-to-five-minute span where our minds shift and kind of drift away. And they capitalize,” Jake Sanderson explained to The Athletic on Sunday. “We need to erase those mistakes and stay sharp at all times, whether we get scored on or not.”
“As a team that gets scored on, the next shift is the most important,” D.J. Smith added Sunday. “When you watch the best teams in the league and the most mature teams, that’s what they do. If you score on them, it’s no big deal. They come right back and just go back to the way they play.”
When you view that table above, it’s easy to point the finger directly at the coach. This has all happened under Smith’s watch and he’s ultimately the one responsible for getting this team to play a detail-oriented, airtight game. As he stated, mature teams aren’t this fragile when a goal is scored against them.
We can talk about missing players like Thomas Chabot , Ridly Greig , Shane Pinto and Mark Kastelic . Ultimately, however, this falls on the shoulders of the head coach.
But at some point, the players need to take a degree of accountability for not being able to consistently play a mature and polished game. There is a pride in playing a well-rounded, structured game that has to come from within the locker room.
And to be clear, we can adequately question players’ attention to detail without questioning their will to win.
Nobody should doubt the competitive fire that burns with this team. Think about all of the inspired comebacks they’ve waged this season.
As many times as the Senators have yielded quick goals to opponents, they’ve done the same thing on the offensive side of the equation.
On Friday, they scored twice in 47 seconds to get right back into the game against the Islanders.
They scored 1:06 apart against Tampa. Ottawa notched two goals in 4:30 against Los Angeles . They almost staged a furious comeback with three goals in 3:23 against Buffalo . And on opening night, a pair of goals from Parker Kelly and Stützle 35 seconds apart quickly erased a two-goal deficit.
But in all five of these instances, the Senators ultimately lost in regulation time. That’s because this team expends far too much time and energy playing catchup, only to ultimately fall short.
This team doesn’t lack heart, desire or offensive skill.
Nobody should ever accuse it of missing any of those elements.
What the Senators require, however, is an attitude adjustment when it comes to the defensive side of the puck. It’s exactly what Daniel Alfredsson saw when the Senators officially brought him back into the fold six weeks ago. Alfredsson said the current edition of the Senators is markedly different than his Jacques Martin-era teams that morphed into a perennial Stanley Cup contender.
“When I came in, we were very good defensively and needed to work on our offense. This team is a little bit the opposite. Going forward, that’s something I can help with too,” Alfredsson explained when he was hired on October 13 . “A little bit more attention to details. Not just with the puck but without the puck. Defense, I always find, is a bit easier to teach than offense.”
And to Smith’s credit, he’s allowed Alfredsson to have a loud voice in trying to help change the mindset of this group. Alfredsson is constantly on the ice for practices and was even behind the bench in Sweden. But even with Alfredsson part of the mix, this team has been plagued by stretches of ineptitude inside their own zone. Expecting Alfredsson to have a magic elixir is certainly unfair because this does not appear to be an overnight solution.
The goaltending should certainly take some responsibility in this realm as well. The Senators have received inconsistent goaltending to this point in the season, with Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg going full Jekyll and Hyde.
Goalie breakdown this season In Wins In Losses
Joonas Korpisalo
.926 save pct
.886 save pct
Anton Forsberg
.943 save pct
.766 save pct
The underlying goalie metrics for Forsberg, in particular, have not been flattering. Using Money Puck’s advanced statistics for the 75 goalies who have played this season, Forsberg ranks at the bottom of several categories.
Forsberg's underlying numbers League RankGoals saved above expected
-6.6
GAA better than expected
-1.06
Low danger shot save pct
.932
High danger shot save pct
.600
If Forsberg and Korpisalo each had one better start under their belt, we’d probably be talking about a 10-6-0 team instead of an 8-8-0 one. After Friday’s game, Forsberg stood in front of reporters and took full responsibility for allowing the Islanders’ fourth goal of the game.
He later added, “I got to find more consistency.”
Forsberg could certainly be talking about the entire team with that statement.
You don’t have to squint too hard to see the optimism around here. It’s sitting right there for Ottawa. Even with a weird schedule, substandard goaltending and inconsistent defensive play, the Senators are far from dead and buried in the Eastern Conference playoff race. As we approach December, there is plenty of racetrack left for this team to turn around. But until the Senators sort out their second-period issues — and stop opponents from scoring in bunches — they will be destined to be stuck in the middle of the pack.
The Senators are finding themselves in that awkward purgatory: Too talented to sit with the bottom-dwellers — but far too undisciplined to keep up with the playoff contenders.
Thanks to their sloppiness and inconsistency, the Senators spend too much of their time playing catch-up in games only to fall short.
And it would be inexcusable if another year went by where that same description also applied to the regular season as a whole.
(Top photo: André Ringuette / NHLI via )
