Should the Chicago Bears draft a QB? Trade the first pick? Exploring 3 NFL Draft scenarios
Ohio State and Michigan play this weekend. That means the college football season is ending soon. It’ll soon be time for conference championship games, bowl season, the College Football Playoff and college all-star games.
Teams have more information to gather on college prospects, but at this point in the NFL season, scouts have already turned in a bunch of it to their respective teams.
And if you’re the Chicago Bears , there’s already a lot to discuss at Halas Hall — a lot to forecast about the future. For the second consecutive year, the NFL Draft could start with them. What the heck do you do if you’re general manager Ryan Poles?
With a lot left to play out this season on the field for the Bears, here are three scenarios worth discussing in late November.
Scenario 1: Draft a quarterback, no matter what
Jahns: With seven weeks left in the NFL season, the Bears have a 56.4 percent chance of getting the first pick in the 2024 draft, according to ESPN’s analytics. The Bears can thank the Carolina Panthers for that. So they remain in play for USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
That’s if they want to be.
Williams’ star has faded some as the losses have piled up for the Trojans. USC is 7-5. But even in defeat, Williams gives you a few plays that leave fans in awe and surely excite NFL teams. It’s worth pointing out that Patrick Mahomes was 13-19 at Texas Tech as a starter.
Williams might not be a generational prospect — who is, really? — but he looks like the best quarterback in this draft class. Maye is expected to be QB2 for most teams.
Fishbain: It might be difficult for football fans to ignore Williams’ fumbles and record this season, but it sure seems like he’s still going to go No. 1 or No. 2. Maye also isn’t going to boast a strong college win-loss record. However, both quarterbacks are immensely talented. They have gifts worth a top pick.
Teams don’t get the luxury, if you will, of selecting No. 1 or No. 2 too often. The opportunity to select the best quarterback in a draft class is supposed to be rare. Can the Bears pass up another chance to select a potential franchise quarterback when they still have questions about their own?
Jahns: If the Bears’ evaluations of Williams and Maye (or both) project them as better NFL quarterbacks than Justin Fields , then the team must take one of them. Poles and the Bears can’t be afraid to do that, either. You might have other roster needs, but you might never be in this position again.
Here’s the holdup, though: Who is involved in those evaluations of the quarterback class? If the Bears decide to move on from Fields, they have an opportunity to align their GM, coach and quarterback.
Fishbain: You can align all those things and still miss. Just ask the New York Jets . But a fear of missing can’t guide this decision. This is the Bears, so we must weigh the two worst-case scenarios: Either the Bears move on from Fields and draft a new quarterback who turns out to be a bust, or they keep Fields, add around him and miss the playoffs again, then decide to move on but aren’t in a draft position to select his successor. Pick your poison. At least drafting a quarterback buys the Bears some time.
Updated top-10 NFL Draft Order:— Dane Brugler November 20, 2023
Scenario 2: Use the high picks and draft non-QB, blue-chip building blocks
Fishbain: A couple of things happened this past weekend to make this scenario more palatable. First, and most importantly, Fields played well. He once again showed his dynamic ability as a runner. He made some clutch throws on the run. He was a major reason the Bears should’ve upset the Detroit Lions . And then look around the league. The Jets are forced to start Tim Boyle . The New York Giants have Tommy DeVito . Zach Wilson , Trey Lance and Mac Jones , all from Fields’ class, have lost starting jobs at some point. It’s a reminder of the tricky nature of drafting quarterbacks. The Bears know what they have in Fields, even if it’s not above average. However, this thought process made more sense a year ago when there weren’t the financial implications.
Jahns: Here’s a list of non-QB players the Bears could be looking at: Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu, Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner and UCLA pass rusher Laiatu Latu.
All those players — especially Harrison — would make the Bears a better team.
But quarterback is still the most important position in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs were a good team with quarterback Alex Smith , but they became a great one with Mahomes. As a member of Kansas City’s front office at the time, Poles surely remembers that transition but also how things were formed before Mahomes. The Chiefs were ready for him. That starts with having a Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid. But Kansas City’s roster had blue-chip players on offense and defense. Mahomes transformed them from a playoff team to a championship one.
Is Poles’ Bears roster ready for that quarterback to come in?
Fishbain: Not right now. Would it even be ready with Harrison and Alt? Or Bowers and Fashanu? That would get them closer, but we’ve discussed this a lot over the past month: How many blue-chip players do the Bears even have? I’d like to see more from Montez Sweat before throwing him in the category. He and Tremaine Edmunds are being paid like Pro Bowlers. DJ Moore plays like one.
So, two schools of thought here. If you’re trying to become the San Francisco 49ers and you want to build such a great roster that you don’t need the most gifted quarterback to lead things, adding two top-10 prospects at non-quarterback positions certainly gets you closer.
Then again, you know what helps a team that lacks All-Pro talent? A transcendent quarterback. He can make everyone better. We don’t know yet if this class has one, but I’d worry about continuing to push off finding a new quarterback because I’m not sure Harrison and Latu make you a playoff team, at least not in 2024, and if the coaching staff and Fields remain, a lot of folks would need a playoff run.
Jahns: This scenario definitely feels like it comes after an “everybody returns” decision is made by Poles. That’s Fields, Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Everyone comes back and the Bears continue to build on whatever success they believe occurred this season.
I’m not sure Bears fans could handle that. I’d probably leave X, formerly Twitter.
But for all that to happen, Fields and Eberflus need to win some games together down the stretch. Winnable games remain on the Bears’ schedule. And they just had one of their best games this season in Detroit, albeit in an epic loss to the Lions .
The 1-2 punch is BACK: #CHIvsDET on FOX pic.twitter.com/dpUpUZCkI2
— Chicago Bears November 19, 2023
Scenario 3: Keep Fields, trade back from No. 1, keep building the roster and potentially take a QB later in the draft or in 2025
Jahns: This looks and feels similar to the previous scenario. If it comes to fruition, it’ll be because Fields and the Bears finished the season in a way that warrants more time together.
It made sense to trade the first pick this year to the Panthers. To use Poles’ words, the Bears weren’t blown away by any quarterbacks in the draft. But they might want to recheck their evaluation of C.J. Stroud to see how and where they missed on him. He’s going to be the runaway winner of offensive rookie of the year.
Fishbain: When Poles acquired Sweat for a second-round pick, did it create an opportunity to trade back and get back into Round 2? Remember my diatribe about not having enough good players? Adding a top-50 pick helps.
Though Stroud went No. 2, we’ve also seen other starting quarterbacks go somewhere other than the top five. LSU’s Jayden Daniels is electric. Oregon’s Bo Nix could win the Heisman. Could the Bears take, say, Harrison, then trade back and nab a quarterback in the second round? I’m not sure they’re in a position to use that kind of pick on a backup — and they like their No. 2, Tyson Bagent — but I still want to see more from Fields before feeling like the Bears could go too long without selecting another signal caller.
Jahns: But this is a fun scenario to consider, Fishbain. Which teams would be desperate enough to move up and jump other QB-needy teams? If I’m Poles, I’d start by circling the Las Vegas Raiders , New England Patriots and Giants. And then how much can the Bears get from them? Poles demanded a top player from the Panthers. Would the Raiders give up pass rusher Maxx Crosby ? Or do the Bears want more draft picks this time?
At the very least, trading the first pick in the 2024 draft would secure another first-rounder in the 2025 draft. So maybe this is the best scenario of them all: Keep Fields for 2024 but don’t pick up his fifth-year option. If Fields plays well next season, re-sign him to an extension. If he doesn’t, finally draft your quarterback with one of your two first-round picks.
Fishbain: This is intriguing; it’s just a question of how much better you made the team for 2024. For this to happen, though, the Bears’ own pick drops, let’s say out of the top five. Maybe that’s because Fields plays well down the stretch, the Bears get some wins and Poles feels more comfortable about running it back. You get more draft capital and a top-10 talent.
But how much better would the 2024 Bears be? Who’s coaching them? The draft class should help. The Bears will be active in free agency. You’re extending the “rebuild” out and possibly testing the patience of ownership. Does president/CEO Kevin Warren sign off on this after watching how miserable things looked at times for the 2023 Bears?
In the final six games, if Fields can show he is more often going to be the quarterback you saw in Detroit and Washington than the one you saw in Kansas City and against the Minnesota Vikings , it might be worth one more crack. But it’s all about winning, too. Fields has to get victories for this team and prove he can be better equipped to do it in 2024 than whichever quarterback is available for the GM.
(Top photos, from left, of Marvin Harrison Jr., Ryan Poles and Caleb Williams: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via ; Todd Rosenberg / ; Keith Birmingham / MediaNews Group / Pasadena Star-News via )
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