Milehighreport

Stats how we roll: Denver Bronco game 4 stat discussion

A.Davis42 min ago
The Denver Broncos ' defense has allowed 55 points through four games which is 10th best in team history to start a season.

The defense has definitely been balling out so far this season, but that doesn't mean that they are going to continue that. Two of the Bronco teams ahead of the 2024 team in terms of points allowed are the 2009 and the 2021 Broncos. Both defenses really fell off. The 2009 defense allowed only 26 points through the first four games and then proceeded to allow 298 in the remaining 12 games. For those counting, that's 6.5 ppg in the first four and 24.8 in the final 12. In the final four games of the season that team allowed 122 points.

The 2021 Bronco D allowed only 49 points in the first four games and then 273 in the final 13. That included allowing 30 or more points three times. The Broncos finished third in points allowed that season which is solid, but finished 7-10 partly because the offense was mostly inept finishing 23rd in points scored. Most of those Bronco teams in the top 10 in points allowed in the first four games went on to finish near the top of the league in points allowed with the exception of the 2009 team which finished 12th.

The Bronco D sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and pressured him at least 19 times (14 QBhits and 5 sacks, but not sure how many hurries). The five sacks tied a career high for Rodgers and the pressures may have been the most he's ever faced. His career high as of now is 20, but he could have had more than that on Sunday. That 20 pressure game was in a win against the San Francisco 49ers in October of 2018. What's amazing is that in the first three games of the season Rodgers was pressured a TOTAL of 12 times (4 in each game). Usually, trying to bring pressure against elite QBs is a losing strategy, but not last Sunday in Jersey in the rain. It worked quite well there.

The Bronco D came into the game with the highest blitz rate in the league, but they did not blitz Rodgers all that much. They currently have fallen to 3rd in blitz rate at 29.7% after being able 40% before Sunday's game. The Broncos 16 sacks currently ranks second in the NFL to the Vikings, but they only had four sacks in the first two games and have had twelve over the last two.

Being able to stop the run in the rain is critical and the Broncos did that all game allowing only 64 yards on 23 carries (2.8 YPC). Of course the most critical time was when the Broncos faced first and goal from the one and held the New York Jets to a FG. They went Breece Hall right guard for no gain. Then Hall to the left tackle for no gain, followed by ARod incomplete because of pressure from John Franklin-Myers. They were going to go for it on fourth down before a false start pushed them back to the 6. It's rare to keep a team out of the endzone when they get first and goal from the one, but the Broncos did it on Sunday. The last time the Broncos allowed a team to get 1st and goal at the 1, but kept them out of the endzone was all the way back in.... 2022 vs the Jags. It was Justin Simmons amazing leaping INT of Trevor Lawrence.

The Bronco OL protected Bo Nix quite well again on Sunday. Nix was not sacked for the second game in a row and now the Broncos are tied for fewest sacks allowed with two other teams (with four teams yet to play this week - one of whom has allowed only four sacks so far). The other two teams who have played four games and only allowed 4 sacks are the Saints and the Ravens. The 2.8% sack percentage is lowest in the league right now (sacks/(passing attempts+sacks)). For comparison the Titans are allowing a sack % of 13.8% which is worst in the league.

Speaking of the Bronco OL, both Luke Wattenberg and Alex Palczewski had really good games. Quinnen Williams (2x PB, 1x AP) was held to one tackle. I was worried that he was going to destroy Luke, who was making his fifth NFL start, but Luke played one heck of a game. As did Alex P., who did not allow a sack and had to face Will McDonald IV for a good part of the game. The former 15th overall pick, McDonald, has five sacks already this season, but was held to one QBhit on Sunday. The Jets only had two QBhits with Tak McKinley getting the other.

The Bronco run game was partly a function of Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams both having a good game, but it was also a function of the Bronco OL winning the LOS for most of the game. That was done against a DL for the Jets that boasts multiple first round picks. Besides McDonald, they have:

Quinnen Williams - 3rd pick Solomon Thomas - 3rd pick Javon Kinlaw - 14th pick Tak McKinley - 26th pick Compare that to the Broncos who have one first round pick on their entire defense (Patrick Surtain II). In addition to those five, the Jets have another four first round picks on their defense: Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson II, C.J. Mosely and Hassan Reddick.

Of course the special teams were mostly really good on Sunday with the exception of the missed 50 yard FG. Riley Dixon (and the coverage unit) had been absolutely crushing it this year.

He also has another punt downed inside the 10 (at the 6).

Getting three downed at the one is more than some punters get in a season and he has done it in four games.

Additionally he has gotten almost half of his punts (48.5%) downed inside the 20, which sounds really impressive until you realize that's currently 13th. The punter for the Colts, Rigoberto Sanchez, has gotten an amazing 80% of his downed inside the 20 through three games (12 of 15). Dixon is currently 7th in net yards per punt at 43.8 and he leads the league in punts at 24, which is not surprising given how ineffective our offense has been so far this season.

The Broncos 3rd down conversion rate is second to last at 24.6%. Only the Cleveland Browns have been worse at 20.8%. The Bronco defense is currently 4th in the league allowing conversion on only 28.3% of 3rd downs. The Detroit Lions (after 3 games) are leading the league at 25.8%, but the Seattle Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins (who also play tonight) are close.

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