Texans vs. Cowboys Player Props: Back Texans Star WR Nico Collins in Return
The in-state battle between the two Texas-based teams is our Monday Night Football game tonight, admittedly with much less intrigue than expected due to the Cowboys' struggles.
The 'Boys have not won a home game yet this season, and they will be missing Dak Prescott for tonight (and for the rest of the season).
So, with that thought in mind, it is no surprise to see the Texans as 7-point favorites ATS in this matchup.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC.
For this , we will be providing the best player prop picks for Texans vs. Cowboys.
Nico Collins 80+ Rec. Yards (+125) DraftKings
Even in his first game back from a hamstring injury, in a game that has a high blowout potential, we are riding with Nico Collins tonight.
Collins should get a ton of work from Stroud as the Texans look to get their offense rolling. It has been a disappointing season overall for the Texans offense, but it is also night and day with and without Collins in the lineup, and that goes back to last year.
The fact of the matter is when Collins plays, he gets a ton of work, and he gets a ton of work down the field, which is why his yards prop is a better play than his receptions prop.
The 80-plus receiving yards is a number that Collins has hit in four of five games this season, and the only game he missed was the Bills game on Oct. 6. He only played 13 percent of the snaps that afternoon due to the hamstring injury that he just recovered from. Of course, he still had 78 receiving yards in that game, as he got injured on a 67-yard TD reception.
In the other four games, he had 117, 135, 86 and 151 receiving yards. More importantly, in those games he had 8, 10, 10 and 15 targets, showing how heavily he is involved in the offense.
Overall, he leads the NFL in receiving yards per game with 113.4, and has elite stats across the board. He is first in the NFL in yards per route run, has the third-highest yards per target and fifth-best yards per reception.
His average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.8 is also the second-highest of all WRs in the top 10 of receiving yards per game, which makes sense as he is generally involved in deep plays for this offense.
This is also a good matchup against the Cowboys defense. Per FantasyPoints, Collins has the best expected matchup as well. The Cowboys run man at a slightly above-average rate (13th in the NFL ), but are horrible when running man coverage.
Overall, they allow the highest fantasy points allowed per dropback against WRs when running man coverage.
That is a death sentence against Nico Collins, who also averages the most fantasy points per route run against man coverage of all receivers in the entire NFL .
He should go off tonight, and his anytime TD is another good look at +135 at FanDuel as well.
Nico Collins 80+ receiving yards (+125):
Rico Dowdle 4+ Receptions (+130) Bet365
There are a couple angles to back this play, starting with the reports out of Dallas that Rico Dowdle is going to finally be the lead back for the Cowboys.
In his press conference this week, McCarthy stated that Dowdle is going to be the lead back and added that the Cowboys are going to focus on getting him opportunities.
So, we should figure to see Dowdle have a snap rate in the 70s, if we had to guess. That has only happened one time this year, against Atlanta in Week 8. He played 71 percent of the snaps vs. the Falcons and recorded five receptions on six targets.
The Texans have a very stout run defense, so the guess here is that if the Cowboys make it a point to get Dowdle more involved in the game itself, it should come via receiving work as opposed to rushing work.
According to DVOA, the Texans have the second-best run defense in the NFL , with the sixth-best stuff rate and fourth-best adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt, per FantasyPoints.
The other big reason this is a strong play is because backup QB Cooper Rush is under center for the Cowboys.
It did not work out last week with Dowdle, as he only had three receptions vs. the Eagles, but he played just 50 percent of the snaps in that game. Rush also looked absolutely horrendous against Philly, with an astonishingly low 45 yards passing on a 56 percent completion rate.
Two of the biggest targets for the Cowboys are banged up, as CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a back injury and Jake Ferguson (illness) missed a practice last week.
While both are expected to play, they could have their snaps or workload reduced, which would increase the target volume for Dowdle.
Rico Dowdle 4+ receptions (+130):
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