Thad Brown: Bills rally can’t dismiss pass game doubt
Do you remember Stan Gelbaugh? If you aren't aware the world once existed without cell phones, you probably don't. That also goes for most non-hard core football fans.
Stan Gelbaugh was a career backup quarterback, but even the term "backup" is generous. He bounced between an NFL third-stringer and an NFL Europe (yep, that was a thing) starter in the late 80's and early 90's. He actually spent four seasons on and off the Bills roster from 1986-89, appearing in only one game.
He made 12 starts for the Seahawks in the 90's, losing all but one. In 1992, Gelbaugh went 0-8 as a starter. One game in December, he attempted 31 passes and completed only nine. Since then, no other NFL quarterback had put the ball in the air 30 times without connecting on at least ten.
That is... until Josh Allen went 9 for 30 Sunday in Houston.
(Ironically, Gelbaugh's game in 1992 also ended in a loss with a field goal on the final play)
Allen and Gelbaugh are not quarterbacks that should ever collide in the same sentence. They literally could not be further apart on the talent spectrum.
The reason Allen and Gelbaugh now share a page in pro football history is that the Everybody Eats offense is struggling to even have a receiver reach the table. Facing better teams the last two weeks is certainly a part of the problem, but don't discount the possibility opposing defenses now have enough film on the Joe Brady scheme to find effective counters.
The Bills only had two wide receivers catch passes that resulted in positive yards against the Texans. No one had more than two receptions. Houston did enter the game fourth in least yards and completions allowed, but this is likely not a defense that will end up in the annals of elite NFL history.
This was the concern when the Bills tried to explain they didn't need a number one receiver and could make up for the lack of a top target in the aggregate. While Khalil Shakir would have been a significant help, he's not turning 9 for 30 into 19 for 30. He's not the type of receiver that would short circuit the passing game of a bona fide Super Bowl contender with his absence.
Curtis Samuel got a three year contract that averages 8 million dollars a year this offseason. His last four healthy seasons resulted in no less than 54 catches or 600 yards. Those numbers were with two different teams and five(!) different coordinators (including the coordinator he has now). This year, Samuel is currently on pace for 31 catches and a ridiculous 163 yards. Whatever Ken Dorsey did to end Nyheim Hines' career as a multi-dimensional weapon, Brady is walking the same road with Samuel.
The frustration with Samuel is that he came to Buffalo with a reputation as someone who could separate from man coverage. A talent severely lacking last season. It's hard to tell if that's still true because he hardly gets on the field with the Bills. When he does see the ball, it's almost always from a position behind the line of scrimmage. It would be a good argument whether he's more underperforming or underutilized.
Keon Coleman had a great flash this Sunday with the 49-yard catch and run touchdown on fourth down. The play came a possession after Coleman got hit in the back of the head with a pass he clearly never expected. This is about par for the course with a second round rookie, most of whom need reasonable time to grow. Any expectations for a quick start were likely more hope than logic.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins are experienced, but supporting pieces at best. The Bills just don't have the receivers to separate. It also doesn't help that Dalton Kincaid doesn't yet appear ready for the elite level leap many (including me) thought was on the way this season.
These are all issues that have existed even before the Bills started losing games, but Brady was masterfully scheming around them. Once the X's and O's stopped being enough to carry the offense, the Bills Jimmy's and Joe's have not been able to play above the scheme.
Despite all the aerial agony, the Bills nearly pulled out a stunning road comeback win. There's no doubt the Texans helped out along the way with penalties, an injury to maybe the best receiver in football and a quarterback who had a bad day protecting the ball. But most NFL rallies of that scale don't happen without a little assistance. The Bills were good and prepared enough to take advantage of the gifts presented to them.
Brady deserves a chunk of credit for engineering the offense to 150 rushing yards on more than five yards a carry. The running backs alone were getting over four yards a pop. James Cook topped 90 total yards for the second time this year.
The Bills offensive line had a fairly solid bounce back from the debacle in Baltimore. Allen did have more run for his life plays than he'd like, but a good chunk of the rally was powered by Buffalo's O-line outplaying Houston's both in the run and the pass.
The patchwork defense allowed only nine points after the first quarter and six were set up by punt returns to near midfield. They created two turnovers. They didn't get a sack, but sure made C.J. Stroud fairly uncomfortable in the second half.
Once Collins left the game, the Bills had the advantage on the outside with Christian Benford/Rasul Douglas versus Stefon Diggs/Tank Dell. Houston's top two remaining wideouts were held to 39 total yards in the second half.
There's a ceiling to what the Bills can do with a hodge-podge of backups carrying the load on defense. Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and Collins live above that ceiling. Most the rest of the NFL does not. Even if Sean McDermott said there are no moral victories, the Bills should feel good about continuing to prove that.
I know Bills fans were frustrated by the way McDermott handled the end of the game, but I don't think there's a hard and fast right answer to that unique situation.
If the Bills run the ball three times from inside their own five, they could burn all three Houston timeouts. It would also likely take less time off the clock. There might be less options on the table for the Texans to set up a closer field goal try, but there would still be options. Not that Ka'imi Fairburn needed to be much closer. His 59-yard bomb cleared the crossbar by nearly ten yards.
I'll listen to the argument that Buffalo's best chance for the first down that would have forced overtime is with Cook. The run game was clearly functioning better than the pass game and that's where the high leverage touches should have gone. My response is that there needs to be a glaring reason to take the ball away from Allen when it really matters. Since the Bills last three runs were for zero, two and two yards, that reason did not exist.
There might also be a debate on if the Bills should have accepted the ten-second runoff with the Stroud intentional grounding penalty, but that discussion only flies if you already know the ensuing punt will be downed at the two yard line. As McDermott pointed out, Allen could still be a threat after a touchback with 32 seconds left.
I didn't have an issue with McDermott not challenging the Kincaid sideline catch, either. Expecting a review to go your way on a play that close occurring that far outside the field of play (where cameras are less likely to unearth a smoking gun level angle) is a bit of wishful thinking. In fact, the only decision I disagreed with by McDermott was going for the fourth down in the third quarter that ended up being the Coleman TD. And the only person wrong on that call is me.
There are probably nits you can pick with the Brady or Bobby Babich gameplans, but this loss was not about a dearth of coaching. It was about a dearth of pass catcher talent.
There are fixes. Younger players like Coleman and Kincaid can further develop. Just because Brady did not find good answers this week does not mean he can't find them next week. Of course, there's also a trade market that is only beginning to heat up.
Right now, these pass catchers don't look like a Super Bowl worthy group. Instead, they're making Josh Allen look like Stan Gelbaugh.
