Thad’s Three Things: Bills at Eagles

Three things on my mind I pick through the leftover turkey and stuffing ahead of a Bills trip to Philly...

First Half Fun

The talk this week in Orchard Park was centered around how the offense continues the mojo generated against the Jets. Sean McDermott says the fun on Sundays has to be “earned” in practice during the week. Social media didn’t love the comment, but his players mostly agreed. Good work habits during the week are the start of the fun Josh Allen and friends had moving the ball last Sunday.

Where the fun really needs to start is the first half. So far, the dividing line starkly obvious. When the Bills score 14 points in the first half, they are 6-0. When they don’t, they are 0-5.

It makes sense. Before the offense buzzword was “energy”, it was “rhythm”. While it was a bit nebulous how rhythm would create success, there was no confusion when the rhythm had to begin. Mitch Morse said converting that first third down can be enough to get an offense rolling. The implication being that the opposite was also true.

Early success creates early rhythm which creates early energy. If Allen and the offense are indeed “back”, they must show it early. One big caveat for this week: the Eagles have allowed 14 points in the first half of six games. They won all six.

Guaranteed Drama

Speaking of the Eagles... for a 9-1 team, they ain’t all that great statistically. The passing game is efficient (5th league wide in yards per attempt), but Jalen Hurts will the give ball away a ton (9 interceptions is more than 19 other teams). They’re only 20th in rush yards per attempt (thank you Tush Push). Defensively, Philly has allowed the third most TD passes and have the second least INTs. They’re pretty good against the run (4th best in yards per rush), but middling rushing the passer (16th in sack percentage) and situationally terrible (27th defending third downs and 26th in the red zone).

Where Philly does excel is in the third quarter. The Eagles have a 72-17 scoring advantage and have only lost that quarter once–to the Jets. Coincidentally (or maybe not), that’s the only defeat for Philadelphia all season.

The Eagles also rarely blow teams out. Each of their last seven games have been less than a one-score margin with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Clearly, this is a team that knows how to execute late. It also helps that they were trailing with five minutes to go in the fourth quarter for zero of those seven games. They were tied once and had the lead every other time.

A big part of the task is pretty obvious for the Bills. Hold ground in the third quarter, if not win it. Have the lead late. Make the Eagles be the team chasing at the end of the game for once.

At the very least, it seems the Bills are going to have a chance on a final drive. That may be enough. Allen has led the offense to necessary points in all four of their reasonable opportunities down less than one score in the fourth quarter.

Scheduled Upset?

Philly is coming off emotional wins over Dallas and Kansas City, the latter being much needed Super Bowl revenge. Their next two weeks are regular season defining games against the Niners and a rematch with the Cowboys. Stunning as it sounds, the Bills are the significantly less attention grabbing opponent.

I tweeted Buffalo was Philly’s “trap game”. It was a fun way to point out how grueling the Eagles schedule is during these five games, even if the concept of a trap game is something I don’t buy. Regardless, there’s a good chance the Eagles will be sponsored this week by Letdown, Inc. It’s hard to expect they will have the same emotional level for the Buffalo as they likely would for the two foes before and after.

If the Bills can start strong and get on Philly early, I wonder if there’s a point where the Eagles might just save the gas for the games that matter a whole lot more the next couple weeks. It’s a thought exacerbated by Philadelphia’s super short week off a Monday road game.

Betting Things

The 6-0 start is now a distant memory. I’ve lost three in a row after the Jets broke a 40-drive (FORTY!) streak on offense without a touchdown to bust my under 19.5 first half points bet just before the buzzer. Still up on the year with a 7-4 record and ahead 3.6 units, but that one left a mark.

Nothing to do but get back up on the horse. I wanted to take a Philly rushing over this week against a Bills defense that’s bottom five against the run per carry, but the lines were pretty big for both D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts.

Instead, I’m going to test the Eagles super stout run D with a Josh Allen anytime (non-passing) touchdown. Philly has only allowed three scores on the ground all year, the best mark in the league. One of those TDs was a spot where the Eagles wanted the other team to score (late against the Jets). The other two were both in the same game. That means when Philly is trying to prevent a rushing touchdown, they have succeeded in nine of ten games.

Here’s the thinking. The only goal to go rush TD allowed by Philadelphia this year was from wide receiver Curtis Samuel on a jet sweep type play. That means Philly hasn’t allowed a traditional short yardage rushing score all year.

Fortunately, the Bills have a non-traditional short yardage TD weapon in Allen. I win on sneaks. I win on called runs in the red zone that might be necessary with Philly’s defense. I win on scrambles that the defense with the NFL’s 5th highest pressure rate will also create. And I’m getting strong odds with +200 on FanDuel as off late Friday night. I like this bet.

I also might be tilting.

The Pick

The Bills cannot lose the turnover battle in this game. Philadelphia is only plus-1 in turnover ratio this season and they’re still 9-1. Imagine what they’d do if the Bills offense starts handing out short fields.

Six sacks and a constant headache of pressure got the Bills three turnovers last Sunday against the Jets. Despite the athletic danger of Hurts, there’s no reason Buffalo can’t use the pass rush to create big plays again this week. Even with an elite offensive line, the Eagles are 21st in pressure allowed per throw and 19th in sacks allowed. The Bills have the second most sacks in the league. Leonard Floyd and Ed Oliver could be pulling up to the dinner table for the second time this weekend.

The concern for me is the advantage the Eagles have up front. Buffalo’s offensive line is much improved from last year. Their D-line is still solid enough and, yet, Philly is clearly better on both sides. Teams that can punch Buffalo in the mouth at the line of scrimmage have been the bane of the Allen-McDermott era.

Unless the Bills have a unique idea on defending the Tush Push (that’s the Eagles famous and wildly successful full squad quarterback sneak), Buffalo should be one of the more vulnerable teams against it. Linval Joseph has been fine as an emergency fill in at the 1-technique (nose tackle-ish), but the Bills are small at linebacker and their best defensive tackle (Oliver) is much more freak athlete than brute force. I wondered this week if Philly might be able to Tush Push their way up and down the field.

The Bills are going to show up in Philly Sunday better rested and full of optimism. They have a quarterback that can beat any team in the league. The Eagles will be barely five days removed from their return flight from Kansas City. All that made me really want to pick the Bills, but games are won in the trenches. If Buffalo can win or at least hang at the line of scrimmage, I love their chances. I just don’t think they will. I’m taking the Eagles 31-24