Thad’s Three Things: Bills at Texans

Three things off the top of my head as the Bills get ready to reunite with their old buddy Stefon Diggs...

Let Him Cook

The Bills should be able to run the ball in this game. The Texans have allowed 4.7 yards a carry, which is 24th in the NFL. Houston has only had 96 run attempts against them this year. Only six teams have defended less runs, so their overall numbers are still pretty good in the run game.

James Cook has proven twice in the last eight games that he can carry an offense with three touchdowns this year against Miami and 179 yards last year against Dallas.

The Bills are going to already be without its most dependable weapon through the air with Khalil Shakir nursing an ankle injury. Houston is very good stopping the pass so far this year–top five in both yards allowed and sacks. No reason to overthink this for Joe Brady. Let Cook eat.

Best Of The Best

I can't wait to watch Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas go up against Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.

On one side, the Bills corners are arguably the best duo in the game through four weeks with Benford taking a sizable leap in year three.

On the other side, Collins might be the NFL's top receiver so far this year. Diggs, as a number two, and Dell, as a number three, are ridiculously talented for their roles.

This might not be the matchup that decides the game, but the Bills can go a long way towards winning with a bunch of success here. I don't even really care who wins. This matchup is football nerd Christmas. Getcha popcorn ready.

Brain Over Brawn

The rest of the Bills pass D might be quite iffy this week.

The pass rush will be missing two of its top weapons in Von Miller and Ed Oliver. Greg Rousseau is a good player, but he's not a one-man wrecking crew. DaQuan Jones is still yet to play at the near elite level he's given the Bills the last couple years. C.J. Stroud might have time to build a fire and roast marshmallows in the pocket.

Taylor Rapp's concussion means the Bills will also be without their most dependable safety and Taron Johnson is a question mark to return after missing the last three games with his forearm injury. No matter how good the corners are, McDermott stressed multiple times this week that his defense will always be a "sum of the parts" group. If the middle of the coverage group is going to be Cole Bishop-Damar Hamlin-Cam Lewis, the Texans will licking their chops to test it.

Even if Terrel Bernard returns (which seems likely based on how healthy he looked in practice all week), I don't think that's going to be much of a help here. Houston has decent passing weapons at tight end and running back with Dalton Schultz and Dare Ogunbowale, but those are low priority items compared to the receivers. The hard work must be done outside and behind the linebackers.

The Bills need Bobby Babich and McDermott dialing the X's and O's up to 11 this week. I've seen them confuse the Tom Brady's and Peyton Manning's of the world. Even if Stroud is impressively unflappable for a second year QB, the Bills can force him into a few mistakes. It doesn't have to be every play. Just enough to keep the Texans passing game from getting out of hand.

Betting Things

Suffered our first defeat of the year when Josh Allen did not get to play all four corners and fell well short of his passing yards number last week in Baltimore. I'm still a very satisfactory 3-1 on Bills prop bets and in the black for 1.8 units.

With Shakir out, the goal this week was trying to identify where his 5-7 targets will go instead. I don't buy Mack Hollins or Marquez Valdes-Scantling as go-to options (though Hollins isn't a totally crazy idea). Cook is always a reasonable option for more passing work, but the Texans have only allowed one running back to reach even 30 yards receiving over their first four games.

To me, that leaves Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid. The Texans have a formidable number one corner in Darryl Stingley. On the other side, rookie Kamari Lassiter is having a very promising start to his NFL career. That was enough to move me off backing Coleman.

Despite a sizable outlay of free agent resources to land him, Samuel has been nothing more than the latest version of Isaiah McKenzie/Deonte Harty through four games. And that might even be generous. With the slot receiver spot vacant, if this isn't the week Samuel gets more involved, it's never happening.

I love the idea of Kincaid as a primary receiver, if not the primary receiver, because he's easily the most dependable option Josh Allen has behind Shakir. That makes my play this week a Kincaid-Shakir parlay: Kincaid over 41.5 yards and Samuel over 31.5. I like the latter number because the Texans have allowed at least 31 yards to three different receivers in three of their four games. I can stretch for the extra yard. Fair warning on Kincaid: Houston has not allowed any tight end to even finish with 30 yards receiving.

None of those other tight ends have Kincaid's athletic ability. I got +241 on the Kincaid-Shakir combo at FanDuel and I feel pretty good about it.

The Pick

Shakir has been easily the best receiver for the Bills over their first four games. If the defense does struggle, losing him really hampers Buffalo's potential to win a shootout.

This is already an offense that has serious questions up front after the way Baltimore demolished the offensive line last week. O'Cyrus Torrence is becoming a real concern in pass protection. It's to the point where the Bills must expect opponents to attack him with stunts and blitzes every week because that has been the weak point for fending pressure away from Allen.

There are plenty of ways the Bills can win this game. Cook can exploit the Texans run D and roll up big numbers while keeping Stroud and company off the field. The Bills defense can disguise and confuse Stroud into a couple of turnovers that easily could swing a tight game. Allen always has a level in his bag that can erase any possible Buffalo disadvantage.

The problem is that Houston's best path to a win is simply the Texans doing what they do: Stroud slinging it over and over to his group of Super Friends at receiver. They can win with just their fastball.

McDermott has already proven he can get high level performances with a cadre of backups on defense, but the Baltimore loss is a stark reminder that riding a core of reserves has a ceiling. The Texans offense might be similarly good enough to live above that ceiling. Especially if Stroud is going to be largely unbothered in the pocket, which is easily my top concern for Buffalo in this game. Add in the injuries and I just can't pick the Bills to win on the road. I'll take the Texans 30-24.