Thanksgiving travel: N.J. gas prices down compared to last year

If the expected dessert at your Thanksgiving feast isn’t enough of a treat, consider this – gas prices have dropped low enough that New Jersey drivers are saving at least $6 to $10 per fill up, depending on the vehicle, said a leading petroleum expert.

There are at least 100 stations in New Jersey currently selling gas under $3 a gallon for regular and roughly 65,000 across the nation now under the $3 mark, said Patrick De Haan, Gas Buddy’s head of petroleum analysis.

“It’s great, prices are now 50 cents lower (per gallon) than they were a year ago,” he said. “A lot of it just is seasonality. In New Jersey, the average is at the lowest average price we’ve seen in some time.”

GasBuddy reported a statewide average of $3.27 a gallon for regular on Monday, while AAA reports regular is at $3.28 a gallon with the average national price at $3.30. A month ago, that state average price was $3.44 and a year ago, $3.81 for regular, according to AAA.

But that’s not the big story. Prices are dipping below $3 a gallon, as reported by the crowd-sourced Gas Buddy website where some stations are priced as low as $2.71 a gallon for regular.

That news comes as an estimated 1.2 million New Jersey residents are predicted to drive 50 miles or more during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 2.1% increase over 2022 and breaking 2019 pre-pandemic records, said Tracy Noble, AAA MidAtlantic spokesperson. Driving represents the majority mode that 89% of Thanksgiving travelers will use, she said.

Weather forecasts for the getaway period aren’t as favorable as gas prices with a major storm system bringing rain, wind and the chance for minor tidal flooding Tuesday into Wednesday, forecasters said Monday. AAA predicts Wednesday to be the busiest travel day.

“Of the seveb day (holiday) period, Americans are going to be spending $1.2 billion on gasoline, especially in New Jersey, where every average fill up will be $6 to $10 less depending on vehicle,” De Haan said.

While there will be more people traveling for the holiday, that demand won’t cause prices to increase, since a far greater number of vehicles will be parked due to people not driving to work or school, he said.

Factors in the price drop include what’s happened to the price for crude oil in the last month. Crude oil is the raw material gas and other petroleum products are refined from.

Crude oil prices were $88.95 on Oct. 20 and have followed the route of an old school Great Adventure roller coaster, trending downward since then. NASDAQ reports a low of $72.90 a barrel for crude on Nov. 16. Crude oil prices sat at $75.89 on Friday, but Reuters reported a $2 a barrel increase on Monday.

“The price of oil has rebounded in the past week,” he said.

What’s caused an uptick in crude oil prices over the past month is concern about the Chinese economy and slowing oil purchases there, De Haan said.

On the horizon is a scheduled Nov. 26 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Counties (OPEC) where oil production cuts could be discussed, he said.

The window of opportunity (for below $3 gas) will probably go until Valentine’s Day or so. ”OPEC is carefully watching and will be talking about what to do about the drop in oil,” he said. “The market is expecting a cut in production, but OPEC can only take cuts for so long before they really feel it.”

Those potential production cuts and effect on prices could affect whether New Jersey joins the ranks of states with sub-$3 a gallon average prices for regular by Christmas, he said.

“That will be in OPEC’s hands. If they cut production, that will be removed off the table of options,” DeHaan said.