Thanksgiving week storm could stymie travel in Eastern US

Periods of moderate to heavy rain — in and around major cities including Atlanta, Boston, Little Rock, Nashville, New York, and Washington — could slow down a significant portion of the estimated 49 million Americans expected to travel by car next week. Severe thunderstorms are a risk for portions of the South on Monday and Tuesday.

A storm system capable of dumping an inch or more of rain is expected to track across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast between Sunday night and Wednesday, at the same time an estimated 55 million Americans are expected to travel.

Prepare for rain if you’ve got Thanksgiving week travel plans in the eastern half of the United States, and for potentially heavy snow near the Great Lakes.

With temperatures warm enough for precipitation to fall as rain in most areas, effects on air travel should be limited. But some interior portions of the Northeast could see a few inches of snow Wednesday. And, in western New York, there is the potential for a significant lake-effect snow event Wednesday into Thanksgiving, just a year after Buffalo was buried by a historic snowfall.

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Otherwise, most of the nation looks to be dry on Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with chilly temperatures across much of the Eastern United States and mild temperatures for much of the West. Another storm system could impact the east next weekend, but forecast confidence is low that many days out.

The storm is likely to bring rain to much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast late Monday into Wednesday, as a strengthening area of low pressure tracks northward from the Deep South to the Great Lakes.

Detroit, Cincinnati, Hartford, and Raleigh, N.C., are among the cities that can expect a period of rain, as well as the Interstate 95 corridor including Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, New York City, Richmond, and Washington. Chicago and St. Louis look to be near the northwestern edge of the storm system, making it more uncertain how much rain they will see.

Early rainfall estimates range from around 0.5 to 1.75 inches for many locations, which would make a small dent in drought conditions that have been expanding across portions of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic.

Here are forecast details for a selection of cities in the region:

Boston: A slug of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Tuesday evening into Wednesday. ‘’At this point the track looks to be far enough inland that it wouldn’t pull in cold air for appreciable wintry precipitation. Nothing is set in stone, though,’’ the Weather Service in Boston said.

New York City: A period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds is possible Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. ‘’Potential for wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. Potential for flooding as well for any locations getting a large amount of rain in a short amount of time especially if those locations contain poor drainage,’’ the Weather Service in Upton, N.Y., said.

Philadelphia: Periods of rain seem likely Tuesday into early Wednesday. ‘’Early indications are that somewhere around 1-2 [inches] of rain are possible,’’ the Weather Service in Mount Holly, N.J., said. ‘’Anything from heavy rainfall and flooding, to severe weather and thunderstorms, to high winds, to coastal flooding are on the table.’’