The AFC-leading Ravens’ inconsistency on offense keeps us wondering

Welcome to Ravens Reality Check, where we crack open the window and run the fan to let the national hot takes about the Baltimore Ravens air out.

The bye could not be arriving at a better time, with a win going into a two-week break that the banged-up Ravens could really use. Here’s what they’re saying about the 20-10 win over the Chargers, with some added context from The Banner:

Let’s face it: Big things were expected from the Ravens offense against the Chargers, who allow the most passing yards in the NFL. The Ravens, meanwhile, came into Sunday night with at least 30 points in five straight games. But up until the final two minutes, they had managed just 13 points. Lamar Jackson was less than his best, just 18 for 32 with 177 yards and the touchdown to Zay Flowers.

Looking behind the broad numbers, a few key statistics stand out. One was how Jackson performed under pressure: He was 16 for 20 with 159 yards and his touchdown with time, but just 2 for 12 for 18 yards when he felt the heat . That’s partly an issue of protection. The offensive line had trouble staying in front of Khalil Mack and the Chargers rushers, especially after crossing the 50 yard line into L.A. territory. But Jackson wasn’t exactly sound on some of his decisions either, and he under-threw several routes (one to an uncovered Rashod Bateman springs to mind).

There’s a lot going on here, between injuries to Mark Andrews and various nicks to key players like Ronnie Stanley and Odell Beckham Jr. Todd Monken’s screen calls didn’t look so hot in this game, reverting to a trend we saw earlier in the season . The Ravens had trouble converting on third and fourth down, and indeed even struggled to realize what down they were on at various times. Not great!

Undisputed’s Richard Sherman repeated the word “sputters” possibly more time than any human being ever has in 15 seconds to describe the Ravens offense — and it was hard not to agree. “You cannot sputter in big games,” he said.

Oddly, the Ravens’ problem doesn’t seem to be in “big” games, though one might argue that the AFC North losses to the Steelers and Browns were high-stakes. The Ravens have demolished the Lions, the Seahawks, the Bengals and other opponents that were expected to give them a challenge. They’ve struggled the most when they’ve been expected to show out, and it’s a vexing trait.

At least this sputtering offensive performance came in a win, and the Ravens have a bye week to lick their myriad wounds. In two weeks they’ll have an opportunity to reassert themselves at home, where they’ve been very good this season. Every campaign has ups and downs — maybe Baltimore’s bye will help them stabilize.

It was a little surprising to hear John Harbaugh gild his defensive coordinator in his press conference. People in the Ravens organization have whispered they wish Mike Macdonald, considered one of the best up-and-coming coordinators in the league, could fly under the radar a little more, but perhaps Harbaugh already knows Macdonald is destined for bigger things.

He made no secret that Macdonald was pushing the buttons in the defense’s brilliant performance against Justin Herbert and the Chargers, as Jonas Shaffer referenced his recap . The quote is positively glowing:

“But Mike was aggressive, and he mixed it up. It wasn’t just that. There were times when I wanted pressure in my mind, and he played coverage, and it worked out. There were times when I wanted coverage, and he wanted pressure. I’m not saying a word. I’m just saying in my mind, thinking, ‘Maybe I’d do the other thing,’ and I thought Mike was just tremendous in this game. He called a fabulous game, and you can’t call a better game than he did tonight.”

Gianna Han broke down the defensive performance from a player perspective , and certainly players like Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Hamilton were brilliant in their roles. But Macdonald’s decisions on when to pressure were just as impactful as how the Chargers pressured Jackson. Herbert was 16 for 19 for 148 yards and a touchdown with a clean pocket; he was 2 for 13 for 29 yards while being pressured. It’s worth remembering that the Ravens were doing this without Marlon Humphrey, their most trusted cornerback.

From a completion standpoint, Herbert fared better against blitzes than non-blitzes (and many of the best quarterbacks know how to throw against blitzes), but nothing symbolized Macdonald’s impact than the last meaningful Chargers down, when Arthur Maulet plowed into Herbert to force an intentional grounding as Michael Pierce dropped into coverage — a call that few coordinators might have the brass to make.

Wrote ESPN’s Bill Barnwell : “The free rusher was a product of a well-timed exotic pressure from Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who should be finishing his final season in Baltimore before getting a head-coaching job somewhere.”

The Ravens’ odds for keeping Macdonald dropped Monday, as the Carolina Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich in the middle of his first season. The Las Vegas Raiders already have an opening (though Antonio Pierce is making a strong play for the permanent role). Macdonald might have auditioned for a future opening, if the Chargers decide to eventually move on from Brandon Staley.

Every head coaching job that becomes available feels like a roll of the dice for the Ravens at this point: It would not be surprising to see Macdonald interview for some of these roles, and it certainly wouldn’t shock anyone to see him win the job based on how he’s performed these last two seasons.

Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens looks on against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second quarter in the game at SoFi Stadium on Nov. 26, 2023, in Inglewood, California. (Ronald Martinez/)

It wasn’t the best night for the Ravens’ ball spots, as we wrote about on Sunday night in a little more depth. And the timing of some of the issues weren’t great, although none wound up being supremely consequential.

There’s no need to repeat Harbaugh’s explanations in this space ( check the story for what he said ), but it’s probably worth pointing out there were some swings here. The third-down Jackson scramble led to a failed fourth down conversion: ESPN’s win probability chart (a metric I don’t personally love, but helps illustrate leverage) dropped from 75% for Baltimore at the start of the drive to 66.8% after Gus Edwards was stuffed.

On Nelson Agholor’s reception that definitely should have been a first down, the probability dropped from 88.1% to 84.3% — not a huge dip, but given that the Ravens had to use two more snaps to get the first down, not ideal.

I do buy Harbaugh’s overall logic that the complexity of a backward lateral probably deserves a second look, but it definitely wasn’t ideal that his eyes in the sky couldn’t give him a better heads-up on the lateral itself. Harbaugh’s accounting made it sound like the coaches made a gut call based on a short replay they saw on the big screen.

All in all, Harbaugh admitted the Ravens struggled to determine down and distance throughout the game. Head coaches are hard-pressed to hold on to their challenges for meaningful moments, and sometimes ball spots don’t always feel worth it for an extra yard or two when you might want to challenge a scoring play or a pass interference on a more pivotal sequence.

The rhetoric questioning the coaching staff’s decisions about challenges (or not pursuing challenges) wound up being about plays that ultimately didn’t truly impact the final outcome. But it’s something that the Ravens should probably analyze to give Harbaugh the best information possible in enough time that he can make these decisions.