The C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R POWER RANKINGS – Week 9

(Note: This was written before the outstanding Thursday Night Football game between the Ravens and Bengals, but the Ravens and Bengals sections are still pretty applicable, I think.)

Week 9 is over, and for your bespoke power rankings, Peter has you covered somewhere on this site, but over on this side we're trying something a little different. Power rankings are all about arguing about why they're wrong, and it's one thing to be subjectively wrong like Peter, and it's quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.

What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here .

The Packers may have a bye, but that's not stopping us, and we have plenty of major risers and fallers including the Lions finally getting over the Chiefs, and a major crash from the 49ers and Texans . Let's get to it !

Detroit Lions : CALCULATOR Score: 133.6, Change from last week: 13.75 – The Chiefs were their usual deadly selves this week, beating Tampa in overtime, but they couldn't hold off the Lions, who made an enormous jump by easily taking care of the Pack. The Lions made small gains in DVOA and EPA while staying level with an outstanding 92.2 PFF grade, but they made a huge jump in Super Bowl odds, from +650 all the way up to +480, second only to the Chiefs. Detroit is first or second in literally everything. KC is not.

Kansas City Chiefs : 130.99, 4.19 – The Chiefs are still much better than basically every other team, it's just that they're no longer in a tier by themselves. They're 8-0 after winning yet another one-score game. One-score games are generally coin-flips but there has been one major exception, that being the Peyton Manning-Colts. I suspect that there will be no large regression to the mean for Mahomes either, although had the Bucs simply gone for two on their game-tying touchdown with 30 seconds remaining, they may have pulled this game out. KC is just 6th in EPA, but everyone who bets on games loves Mahomes, which is perfectly logical.

Baltimore Ravens : 115.58, 3.74 – Baltimore's win over Denver was extremely impressive. While the Broncos' offense is inconsistent at best, their defense was unquestionably great, and the Ravens tore through it like a hot knife through butter. Along with KC and Detroit, they are one of the only three teams with a rating over 100, and their only real weakness is EPA, which usually doesn't stray so far from DVOA (the Ravens are 2nd in DVOA, but 9th in EPA per Play). Lamar Jackson was nearly perfect, Derrick Henry was unstoppable, and Zay Flowers is starting to establish himself as a real weapon. Also, Justice Hill is super fun.

Buffalo Bills : 98.9, 3.39 – The Bills won ugly against Miami 30-27, but then again, the Tua Dolphins are quite a bit better than what they have been most of the season. The Bills are, of course, still hated by PFF where they improved two points to 74.5 this week, but they're first in EPA and fifth in DVOA. While their run defense is quite good, they are strictly middle of the pack in pass defense, and in total, they're sort of a lesser version of Kansas City. Josh Allen compensates for many of Buffalo's issues, but he's not Mahomes until he gets it done in the playoffs. They've gained significantly in their Super Bowl odds, from +1100 up to +850 this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 94.51, -7.9 – What exactly is happening here? How did a team on its bye week suffer the second biggest decline of the week? Well, it's important to remember they're still fifth overall, which is quite good, but the decline comes primarily from the Lions, who jumped past them as the NFC favorites, while the 49ers saw their betting odds go from +750 to +1000. Those odds are partially driven by a frisky division that's led by Arizona, while the 49ers are tied half a game back with the now-healthy, and dangerous Rams. If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would miss them, and currently trail in tiebreakers to the Bears and Rams. They also still have games at Green Bay, at Buffalo, at Tampa, and at Arizona, and a home game against the Lions. The 49ers' underlying numbers are still decent enough as they're sixth in DVOA and third in PFF grade, however they have a truly uphill battle just to get into the playoffs, and if I had to bet right now, I don't think they make it.

Philadelphia Eagles : 87.44, 3.82 – The Eagles hurdle over a few teams into sixth with a narrow victory over Jacksonville. The Eagles are ninth in EPA and DVOA, but PFF loves these guys, and they've been hanging onto above average Super Bowl odds since the preseason. They're fourth in point differential in the NFC with only Washington to challenge them in their own division. It hasn't always been pretty with the Eagles but they're 6-2, enjoying a four-game win streak, and get to beat up on the Cowboys next.

Minnesota Vikings : 82.84, -0.26 – The Vikings beat the Colts 21-13 and end up treading water because of a small regression in DVOA. The Colts aren't good, and Sam Darnold turned the ball over three times (while still throwing three touchdowns), which mutes the impact of an otherwise decisive victory. Minnesota's Super Bowl odds remain unchanged at +2100 and the Lions are obviously the favorites in the division, but over their next seven games the Vikings face the Bears twice, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Arizona, and Seattle (in addition to a home game against Atlanta in the Kirk Cousins revenge game). Even though they've been less dominant lately, the Vikings will likely put up an impressive record by seasons' end, and they face Detroit in Week 17.

Washington Commanders : 79.91, +2.5 – The Commanders did what they needed to do in getting past the Giants 27-22, but they haven't looked quite as dominant since their loss to the Ravens in Week 6. That said, while their offense has come back a bit, their defense has greatly improved, and the ceiling they've shown makes them real contenders. They're third overall in EPA per Play, up to +2200 to win it all, and their only real flaw at this point is that PFF hates them (12th) almost as much as they hate Buffalo (18th).

Green Bay Packers: 75.49, -6.73 – It's too bad the Packers played such a sloppy game in the poor weather at Lambeau, but at this point, it's sort of who they are. The Packers posted 150 more yards than the Lions, but turnovers, penalties, and a 3/12 effort on third downs did them in. Much of that sloppiness is related to injuries. Love lacks zip on his throws, and many in the secondary and on the line are playing out of position, but they really need to work on the small stuff during the bye. All of that said, they're still 10th in EPA per Play, and 8th in DVOA, and it's amazing to be so efficient while making so many mistakes.

Atlanta Falcons : 74.23, 3.69 – The Falcons snuck by Dallas while knocking Dak Prescott from the game and get a small boost for their efforts. The most surprising thing about Atlanta is their leading receiver. It's not Drake London, or Kyle Pitts, but former Bear Darnell Mooney, who has 588 yards and averages a team-leading 14.3 yards per catch. It's easy to forget that Mooney once put up a 1000-yard season as a 24-year-old with Chicago, and sometimes escaping toxic organizations is all a player needs. PFF loves the Falcons as the sixth best team, and they have a comically easy path to the playoffs in their terrible division.

Houston Texans: 73.99, -11.07 – Our biggest tumbler of the week went out and lost to the New York Jets . Houston is a bit of a mess due to injuries to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, and while Tank Dell did his best (6 catches, 126 yards), CJ Stroud was horrific, completing just 11 of 30 attempts, and taking eight sacks. Stroud's regression is the big story, but we should cut him some slack as there is a significant drop-off in talent after the Texans' big three. They may get Nico Collins back for the Lions this week, which may give them a fighting chance at some redemption. Houston crashed from 7th to 11th in DVOA and are just 14th in EPA per Play.

Pittsburgh Steelers : 73.78, -0.29 – The first place Steelers had a bye, and have a big game against the Commanders coming up on Sunday.

Los Angeles Chargers : 71.31, 3.32 – The Chargers won't play an actual good team until Week 11, when they kick off a gauntlet run of Cinci, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Kansas City. This week, they get to demolish the Titans, just as they demolished the Browns last week, 27-10. Out on the West Coast in the shadow of Kansas City it's easy to remain somewhat anonymous, but it's worth paying attention to the Chargers. Their defense remains elite, and as the young offense continues to get healthier and improve, they've managed to put up a few respectable efforts. Ladd McConkey is a legitimate threat, and Quentin Johnston just had the best game of his career, catching 4 of 5 targets for 118 yards and a score. They're sixth overall in EPA, though just 13th in DVOA. Keep an eye on them.

Cincinnati Bengals : 66.17, 3.74 – When you play the Raiders, it's your job to destroy the Raiders, and the Bengals did just that, 41-24, but...that 24 just doesn't sit right, and that's kind of the Bengals in a nutshell. They have great, high-ceiling talent, and Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 scores in this game, but they were only up 17-10 at halftime, and while the game was never in doubt, they never completely shut the Raiders down. And while they're not out of it at 4-5, they face the Ravens and Chargers before heading into the bye. It's statement game time for Cincinnati, or it's probably over for them. They're only 17th in DVOA and EPA, and they have a +9 point differential. They're probably just an average team.

Tampa Bay Bucs: 63.84, -0.24 – I still love watching Baker Mayfield play, even when his best receiver is tight end Cade Otton. What I don't like is voluntarily going to overtime against Patrick Mahomes instead of going for two to win in regulation, as the Bucs did. The Chiefs won the coin toss and marched right down the field because of course they did. I'm tempted to punish the Bucs with some kind of subjective penalty for it, but this isn't that kind of power rankings, and so their slight downgrade reflects what is otherwise an impressive loss to a great team. The Bucs are 12th in DVOA, which is their best individual CALCULATOR input.

Arizona Cardinals : 61.69, 3.54 – The Cards hold on to first place in the West by taking it to the Bears, 29-9. Chicago suffered injuries to some key run stoppers and as a result, Cardinal backs gained a combined 207 yards on the ground against them. On the defensive side, they sacked Caleb Williams six times, hurt him, and did not allow a touchdown. It was an impressive win from a team I still don't trust that much but will not go away. They are right around 16th in all major metrics and are probably the most appropriately ranked team on this list.

Denver Broncos : 61.35, -4.64 – The Denver defense was the strength of this team, but they had no answers for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Prior to this game, the most points Denver had allowed was 26 to Seattle in Week One. Denver's defensive EPA per Play went from a league leading -.163 through Week 8, all the way down to -.112 after their loss. They've now fallen behind the Chargers and Vikings in defensive EPA, and from 14th to 17th in total EPA. Defense is volatile and I still think they're a very good unit, but when you run into a great offense, sometimes there's just nothing you can do.

Seattle Seahawks : 59.71, -2.96 – The Seahawks are extremely beaten up at the moment and ran into the Rams just as they got healthy. The result was a 26-20 loss in which Geno Smith threw for three touchdowns, but also three picks. Geno is a rollercoaster, man. Seattle is 11th in PFF score, but way down at 22nd in EPA. And so, they land at 18th.

Los Angeles Rams : 58.52, 2.94. This is why we include Super Bowl odds. The Rams have the 15th best odds to win it all at the moment at +5500, which is pretty good, but also doesn't fully capture how good the healthy Rams actually are. They're tied for second in their division at 4-4 and currently two and a half games out of the Wild Card along with the 49ers and Bears, and so they do not have the easiest path to the playoffs, but they're obviously better than any of their underlying metrics. They're especially loathed by PFF at 23rd, but in terms of just looking forward, the Rams should be feared. They have the Dolphins and Pats over the next two weeks and should be 6-4 when they play their next challenging game against Philly in three weeks.

Chicago Bears : 57.82, -6.11 – What on earth was that? Losing Andrew Billings to a torn pec is a big deal, but it shouldn't cause your run defense to implode completely. The Bears are banged up, to be sure, and the Cardinals took advantage, but it's the offense that might get Matt Eberflus canned. DJ Moore has gotten pouty and walked off the field during a play. Rome Odunze played well, but that's the end of the list, as Caleb Williams took six sacks and couldn't buy enough time to make his throws, and the running game was completely shut down. The Washington Hail Mary really may have broken this team. The Bears pass defense remains elite, best in the league by EPA, but the run defense has fallen off to below average. The pass defense has carried them to 12th overall in EPA, but they're just 23rd in DVOA.

New York Jets: 56.84, 2.51 – The Jets beat the Texans thanks to Garrett Wilson (9/90/2) and Davante Adams (7/91/1), and a ferocious pass rush that got to CJ Stroud eight times. The Jets may be a mess, but they were heathier than the Texans, still have a decent enough defense, and sometimes, Aaron can still sling it. The Jets rank 18th in EPA as the last team in the positives at .024 per play.

Indianapolis Colts : 56.81, -2.31 – It turns out that Joe Flacco is perhaps not the answer, although there is no shame in struggling against an elite Vikings defense. I also still think the decision to bench Anthony Richardson was the correct one. You'll see plenty of analysts deriding the decision based on the idea that young quarterbacks need to play to learn, but it's important to consider what you do and do not learn by playing. You learn the speed of the game, and the quickness with which you need to make your reads. You do NOT learn footwork and mechanics. Anthony Richardson was sacked on less than 14% of his pressures in college. Speed was not his issue, mechanics very much are, and so sitting him, and working on the basics, is a fine idea. The Colts now shockingly feature an above average run defense on the year and are approaching average overall by EPA. They're 17th in PFF grade ahead of Buffalo. LOL.

New Orleans Saints : 52.68, 2.15 – The Saints were 2-0 with a +62 point differential, and now they have the same record as the Panthers, whom they amazingly just lost to. And not even the Andy Dalton Panthers, the Bryce Young Panthers. Alvin Kamara rushed for 155 yards and the Saints won the turnover battle, but they were unable to keep Chuba Hubbard out of the end zone with 2:24 remaining, and Derek Carr came up about 20 yards shy of field goal range on their final drive. A depressing, old team that is quite possibly the worst run team in league history from a cap standpoint. They are frankly not low enough, and 25th in Super Bowl odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars : 47.76, -1.69 – The Jags dropped a close game to the Eagles, but it's hard to tell how it was this close from the stat sheet. Trevor Lawrence was horrible (16/31, 169, 2 picks), they couldn't run the ball, and Saquon Barkley hurdled someone backwards. Saquon also put the ball on the ground, as he sometimes does, and Travon Walker housed it to pull the Jaguars to within six. That was not a sustainable offensive plan, unfortunately. Jacksonville is 26th in DVOA, horrible, and boring.

New York Giants : 47.57, 0.82 – The plucky Giants managed to hang with the Commanders and slowed them down better than most teams. They may have even stolen a win if not for a Daniel Jones strip sack, but what would the Giants even be without Jones screwing up? The Giants are right where they should be, and all metrics agree.

Dallas Cowboys : 46.43, -1.57 – Dak got hurt, Cooper Rush couldn't quite rally the troops, and Atlanta escaped with a win. You can always count on something going wrong for Dallas at this point, and they sit 28th in PFF grade AND EPA. Still 22nd to win the Super Bowl though. I guess someone has to be.

Miami Dolphins: 45.31, 2.87 – Miami shoots up the charts by almost-but-not-quite defeating Buffalo. The Dolphins may have Tua back, but they're still terrible across the board on all underlying metrics, except for Super Bowl odds where they're tied with Dallas.

Tennessee Titans : 40.97, 1.66 – A quick reminder that the Titans' defense is secretly kinda good, and that they're mostly just betrayed by an inept, dysfunctional offense. This week, that Mason Rudolph-led offense was good enough to get past the Patriots and Drake Maye, who really struggled, getting sacked four times and throwing two picks. The Titans also held Rhamondre Stevenson to 16 carries on 10 yards. The Titans are a bad team, but without Will Levis kicking himself in the dick every game, and a newfound reliance on Tony Pollard, they're not the pushovers they were earlier.

Las Vegas Raiders : 38.35, -0.8 – Desmond Ridder rallied the Raiders for a late score against Cincy, hitting tight end phenom Brock Bowers for a 22-yard score. The Raiders are bad, but they at least have a couple of interesting young players, though none of them play quarterback. They have the third worst EPA in football and are one of three teams under -0.2.

Cleveland Browns: 38.25, -1.13 – I'm not in the mood to even think about the Browns this week. They lost to the Chargers, they're horribly run, boring, etc. They are also third worst in basically everything.

New England Patriots : 34.58, 1.30 – I'd love to pick the Pats over the Bears this week (and I actually think I may have done so over on Tallysight before I wrote this and put more thought to it), but the way to beat the Bears defense right now is to run it, and Rhamondre Stevenson isn't really very good at that. He will occasionally blow up for a game, but no one gets completely shut down more than he does. Drake Maye struggled with the Titans' pass defense and the Chicago pass defense is much better. I wonder if this Patriots team could have been something had they not traded away all of their best defensive players. Drake looks pretty good, and I think in another universe they could be rounding into form for a playoff run right now. Instead, they're second last in everything to Carolina. They are +100,000 to win it all.