The cheat sheet: Don't give up on the Saints just yet
Best Bet
FALCONS at SAINTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Falcons by 31⁄2.
Total: 461⁄2.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 6-3/5-4; Saints 2-7/3-6.
Not getting the Bears' offensive coordinator job looked like the best thing to happen to Klint Kubiak.
The son of Broncos Super Bowl-winning coach Gary Kubiak landed with the Saints under Dennis Allen. Instead of mentoring Caleb Wiliams, he was paired with veteran quarterback Derek Carr.
For two games it was a thing of beauty. The Saints' offense with Carr and running back Alvin Kamara, was an unstoppable machine in dominant wins against the Panthers (47-10) and Cowboys (44-19).
The Saints scored on their first nine possessions against the Panthers (five touchdowns, four field goals). They topped that by scoring touchdowns on their first six possessions against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Week 2.
The rout of the 1-0 Cowboys looked especially impressive at the time against a team that went 12-5 and was fifth in scoring defense last season. The Cowboys haven't been the same since getting cold-cocked by the Saints — losing four of six games to fall to 3-5.
The Saints' 91 points against the Panthers and Cowboys were the most in the first two weeks of an NFL season since 2009, when Sean Payton's Saints scored 93 points in victories over the Lions (45-27) and Eagles (48-22) on their way to winning the Super Bowl.
But that meteoric rise burned out quickly. Carr and the Saints were stymied by Vic Fangio and the Eagles in a 15-12 loss the following week — and now they haven't been the same since. When Carr injured his oblique against the Chiefs, Kubiak suddenly was mentoring rookie Spencer Rattler.
Suddenly it didn't matter who is at quarterback. The Saints' offense has averaged 15.3 points in seven consecutive losses. They scored fewer offensive points in the first six games of that losing streak (85) than in the first two games of the season.
With Carr back last week against the Panthers, the Saints scored 22 points — but allowed 23 in another loss and Allen was fired, replaced by special-teams coordinator Darren Rizzi, whose first move was to rearrange the locker room by position group instead of the random Kumbaya setup.
That's a winning move right off the bat. With Carr in his second game back from the injury and a rejuvenated Kamara (114.1 yards from scrimmage per game), the Saints are set up for a classic fire-the-coach bump.
Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 24.
Top plays
STEELERS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Commanders by 21⁄2.
Total: 451⁄2.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 6-2/6-2; Commanders 7-2/7-1-1.
Outlook: Coming off an emotional high after the Hail Mary stunner vs. the Bears, the Commanders were able to coast to victory over the woeful Giants. Now they face the Steelers, who are coming off a bye and have veteran QB Russell Wilson in his third start. Steelers are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in their last seven road games off a bye.
Pick: Steelers 24, Commanders 20
LIONS at TEXANS
Time:
Line: Lions by 31⁄2.
Total:
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 7-1/7-1; Texans 6-3/3-5-1.
Outlook: Lions face the challenge of back-to-back road games after a huge win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. The last time in that spot, they beat the 5-0 Vikings who were coming off a bye 31-29 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Texans are in first place in the AFC South and playing on 10 days rest but not really as good as they expected to be.
Pick: Lions 30, Texans 23.
DOLPHINS at RAMS
Time:
Line: Rams by 1.
Total:
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 2-6/2-6; Rams 4-4/3-5.
Outlook: Tua Tagovailoa's return has give the Dolphins a boost, but they have little except frustration to show for it — back-to-back losses in the final seconds to the Cardinals (28-27) and Bills (30-27). But the Rams are picking up steam as well, with three consecutive victories.
Pick: Rams 31, Dolphins 23.
Other games this weekend
PATRIOTS at BEARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 6. Total:
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 2-7/3-5-1; Bears 4-4/4-3-1.
Outlook: Bears are on tilt after losses to the Commanders and Cardinals and need to get back on their feet before a run of NFC North games begins next week. They'll be motivated to not only win, but also to make it look good, and they can pull that off against an inferior opponent. Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye is 0-3 in games he starts and finishes.
Pick: Bears 23, Patriots 16.
GIANTS vs. PANTHERS
Time:
Line: Giants by 61⁄2. Total: 401⁄2.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-7/2-6-1; Panthers 2-7/2-7.
Outlook: Panthers are on a high after beating the Saints to end a five-game losing streak — perhaps a confidence boost for QB Bryce Young. The Giants have lost four straight (0-4 ATS), but vs. the Commanders, Steelers, Eagles and Bengals, so this is a step down in class. Both of their victories are on the road.
Pick: Giants 21, Panthers 13.
Time: Noon.
Line: Total:
Records (overall/ATS):
Outlook: The 49ers have yet to win back-to-back games this season — they're 0-3 SU/ATS following a win. RB Christian McCaffrey could return after missing the first eight games with an Achilles injury. The 49ers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS off a bye in the last five seasons. Buccaneers pushed the Chiefs to OT last week, losing 30-24, but they're allowing a league-high 33.0 ppg over the last five weeks.
Pick:
VIKINGS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Vikings by 5. Total: 451⁄2.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 6-2/6-2; Jaguars 2-7/5-4.
Outlook: Acquiring LT Cam Robinson from the Jaguars to fill in for injured starter Chrisitian Darrisaw paid immediate dividends when the Vikings gained a season-high 415 yards in a 21-13 victory over the Colts last week. Now Robinson can provide all sorts of intel on the Jaguars, who gained just 215 yards (18-60 rushing) without Robinson in a 28-23 loss to the Eagles last week. Sometimes this job is just too easy!
Pick: Vikings 31, Jaguars 23.
BILLS at COLTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bills by 4. Total: 481⁄2.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 7-2/5-4; Colts 4-5/7-2.
Outlook: In a week when following the money line was all too telling, it's worth noting that the Bills line dropped from -6 to -4 at mid-week. Joe Flacco, who was subpar (179 yards, 63.7 rating) vs. the Vikings, is a wild card. He figures to be better in his first start at home.
Pick: Bills 21, Colts 19.
BRONCOS at CHIEFS
Time: Noon.
Line: Chiefs by 8. Total: 411⁄2.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 5-4/6-3; Chiefs 8-0/5-3.
Outlook: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has an ankle injury — is anyone going to fall for that? Mahomes recovering from an injury is like most of us stretching when we get out of bed. Chiefs are 45-5 SU, but only 22-26-2 ATS as a favorite of a TD or more in the Mahomes era.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17.
TITANS at CHARGERS
Time:
Line: Chargers by 71⁄2. Total:
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 2-6/1-7; Chargers 5-3/5-3.
Outlook: Chargers QB Justin Herbert is averaging 303.3 yards with a 109.7 rating (4 TDs, 0 INTs) in his last three games. He faces a Titans team that is first in yards allowed, but 27th in points allowed (26.6 ppg).
Pick: Chargers 24, Titans 14.
JETS at CARDINALS
Time:
Line: Cardinals by 1. Total:
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 3-6/3-6; Cardinals 5-4/6-3.
Outlook: The Cardinals have won three straight (3-0 ATS), including an impressive 29-9 victory over the Bears last week. They should be a bigger favorite here at home, but Aaron Rodgers is an x-factor at this point.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Jets 20.
EAGLES at COWBOYS
Time:
Line: Eagles by 7. Total:
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 6-2/4-4; Cowboys 3-5/2-5-1.
Outlook: The Vic Fangio effect is taking hold — Eagles are ninth in points allowed, third in yards and fifth in rushing yards. Eagles have won four straight (2-2 ATS). Cooper Rush starts for Dallas. He's 5-1 as a starter.
