The first CFP rankings deliver surprises: Teams most likely to be elated or furious

No college football rankings actually have an impact on the College Football Playoff until the selection committee releases its first Top 25, which the 13-member group does Tuesday night.

The coaches poll is 54 coaches and and the AP Top 25 is 62 media members, with each pooling their rankings in a simple points system.

The committee's rankings aren't built like that. Its process couldn't be more different.

So naturally, the results are usually very different, too. Especially the first one, before the human polls inevitably start to more closely reflect the committee's views.

Last year, Ohio State was No. 3 — one spot behind rival Michigan — in both polls when the committee released its first rankings.

The committee ranked the Buckeyes No. 1, two spots ahead of the Wolverines. Air Force was 17th in both polls; the committee ranked the Falcons 25th. Notre Dame was 12th in the polls; the committee ranked the Irish 15th.

In 2022, the polls had LSU 15th and 17th, a two-loss team ahead of just one Power 5 team with one loss. The committee decided it was 10th, ahead of four P5 teams with only one loss.

In 2021, eventual Playoff participant Cincinnati was No. 2 in both polls. The committee ranked the undefeated Bearcats No. 6 in its initial rankings. That same week, undefeated Oklahoma was No. 4 in both polls, behind one team with a loss: Alabama . The committee ranked the Sooners eighth, behind four teams with a loss.

There are always some surprises and raised eyebrows when the committee shows its cards and reveals the teams it sees differently than the polls, at least 10 weeks into the season when there's still time for the results to sort things out on the field — for the most part.

Which teams will it be this year?

Let's look at a few candidates to be throwing tomatoes at the committee after the initial rankings Tuesday and some others that might be feeling good about their initial placements.

Feeling pleased

The Hoosiers were picked to finish 13th in the Big Ten and didn't appear in a poll until Week 6, despite running up a list of blowouts. The Hoosiers have won every game by at least 14 points and have an average margin of victory of 28.7 points. They trailed once this season: 10-0 in the first quarter Saturday against Michigan State . The Hoosiers proceeded to score the game's final 47 points.

In comparison, Miami , which began the season in the top 20, is six spots higher than Indiana in the coaches poll, despite zero Top 25 wins and just three wins over teams over .500. The Hurricanes trailed by 25 against Cal, needed a controversial Hail Mary to beat Virginia Tech and trailed by double digits in the second half against Duke .

Curt Cignetti's team doesn't have a resume cornerstone like Georgia 's win over Texas or Oregon 's win over Ohio State, but the Hoosiers are falling victim to modest preseason expectations and brand bias from pollsters.

The schedule strength is not good, rated No. 82 by The Athletic's Austin Mock. (The committee uses a strength of schedule rating system that isn't made public.) And if this doesn't come to fruition, that's what is dragging the Hoosiers down. But the committee respects balanced teams, and it respects game control. Indiana is fifth nationally in offensive yards per play and third nationally in yards per play allowed. Don't be surprised if the Hoosiers are close to or top five.

BYU was picked to finish in the basement of the Big 12. The Cougars didn't show up in the polls until Week 5 after routing Big 12 preseason darling Kansas State 38-9 in Provo.

Nobody cared when BYU beat SMU on the road 18-15 in Week 2. Especially not pollsters. SMU hasn't lost a game since and ascended into the top 15 of the polls. That's a road Top 25 win and one of the best nonconference wins of the season, and it will give BYU's resume a boost in the committee's eyes. BYU has another likely Top 25 win in Kansas State and a quality win over Baylor , which has won its past three games and improved to 5-4 after a 2-4 start.

The Cougars are undefeated but sitting at No. 9 in both polls, behind five teams with a loss. They haven't gotten the boosts from big wins because they're beating teams at the wrong time. The committee's holistic approach to assessing resumes, rather than reacting to results week to week, will pay off for the Cougars, who are in the driver's seat in the Big 12 race.

Notre Dame

The lasting image the Irish left pollsters was the loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7 that caused them to tumble from No. 5 to No. 18 in the AP poll. It erased the season-opening win over Texas A&M in the minds of voters, and the Irish haven't had a mammoth showdown since. What the Irish have had are a bunch of quality wins.

Texas A&M was No. 20 to start the season. The Aggies are now 7-2 and sitting tied atop the SEC. Louisville , which the Irish defeated 31-24 on Sept. 28, is 6-3 and showed back up in the polls this week after routing Clemson .

Miami (Ohio) was 0-3 when the Irish beat it. The Redhawks are now 4-4 and a game out of the lead in the MAC.

If Louisville is in the committee's Top 25, Notre Dame will have four wins against teams above .500 and two Top-25 wins.

Pollsters (and the court of public opinion) are still holding that loss to Northern Illinois against Notre Dame. The committee is far less punitive about bad losses than polls and rewards quality wins more than polls, which traditionally only bump teams for wins against top-10 teams or lopsided wins against Top-25 teams.

Bone to pick

Boise State

The Broncos are a fun watch and improving, as quarterback Maddux Madsen has surged as Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty 's numbers have dipped the past two weeks. But while the Broncos showed they can compete with elite teams by nearly knocking off Oregon in Eugene, the committee has shown throughout its history that it views Group of 5 teams unfavorably.

It's mostly because anyone who has done the mock selection exercise offered to media members can see how much the committee leans on strength of schedule metrics throughout the process and how easily teams with more losses can slide up the rankings ahead of teams like Boise with no real warts on their resume but no jewels.

The Athletic's Mock has Boise State's past strength of schedule at 83 and remaining schedule at 92.

Boise defeated Mountain West foe UNLV and ascended to the top 15 in both polls. But it lacks big wins, and the committee doesn't reward quality losses in the same way pollsters do in the case of the narrow loss to Oregon.

Don't be surprised if Boise State is outside the committee's top 20, though so long as it's the highest-rated Group of 5 team in the final rankings it will earn a bid into the bracket.

It's not Tennessee's fault its opponents have flatlined since the Vols got big credit for beating them. But the committee isn't going to be moved by either win over NC State , after which Tennessee moved up seven spots in the AP poll, or Oklahoma. And it will note that the Vols have scored seven first-half points total in the past four games and have needed to rally to beat Florida and Kentucky . The win over Alabama is a strong resume point, but it's Tennessee's only win that will impress the committee.

That win helped Tennessee climb back to Nos. 6 and 7 in the polls, but don't be surprised if the Vols are No. 10 or below in the committee's eyes.

The ACC

As mentioned above, there are lots of holes in Miami's resume if you look closer, and its strength of schedule ranks No. 64 per Mock. Clemson has one win against a team with a winning record and has been routed twice. It could conceivably be unranked by the committee. Pitt is 7-1 but Syracuse is its closest thing to a ranked win.

SMU is undefeated in league play but still might be on the outside looking in for an at-large bid. The schedule metrics for the league are not going to help, and the league may find that its top at-large candidates are lower in the committee's eyes than in the polls at every corner.

Army / Washington State

They're two of the best stories in the sport this season. Both are in the top 20 in both polls after racking up a combined 15-1 record. But see the above point about Boise State. Army's schedule ranks 131 by Mock. Wazzu is just 79. If either team is in the committee's Top 25, I'll be shocked.

Expect more teams from the Big Ten and SEC that have two or even three losses like South Carolina , Vanderbilt or maybe even Iowa.