The Giants have 4 arbitration-eligible players. Here’s what they should do with them
There are four teams that spent all season preparing for October, only to get bounced after two or three games. The Astros, Braves, Brewers and Orioles were all reasonable picks to win the World Series, and now they're hanging out with the Giants on the couch.
Seems painful! That's why you're lucky to be here, reading about possible arbitration awards and payroll stuff. Let the suckers and the dupes care about postseason baseball, only to get their hearts broken. The rest of us can get wonky and play GM. The spookily accurate arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors are in for the four eligible Giants, so let's look at whether they should be tendered contracts, and if so, how it might affect the committed payroll for next season.
This stuff's important. It might be the difference between a contender and an also-ran, and the whole point is to get back to the postseason.
Goodness, it would be so much more fun to be writing about the postseason right now.
To the arbitration projections, I guess.
Camilo Doval — $4.6 million estimate
The easiest contract to tender, but also the most complicated situation.
Doval finished the 2023 season as an All-Star and elite closer. He ended 2024 as the biggest enigma in the bullpen, if not the roster. He was sent down to Triple-A Sacramento at the beginning of August to refine his command, which is baseball jargon for "throw some freaking strikes." He walked just one of the 20 batters he faced in Triple A, then came back up to the majors and walked 10 of the first 58 batters he faced — an unsustainable 17 percent walk rate. For context that's 3 percent higher than the wildest reliever in baseball last year, Aroldis Chapman (14.7 percent).
Doval was at his best in his final three outings, though, allowing just one hit and striking out four out of the 10 batters he faced. You don't need me to sell you on the potential of his arm. When it works, it leads to All-Star Games and saves. It's a mild surprise that his control hasn't failed him before, though, because when he came up for good during the 2021 season, he was walking almost everyone he saw in Triple A. Control has been an issue that's always pestered him, but he was effectively wild in the majors for a while. Then the league caught up to him.
It's an easy decision to tender Doval a contract, but this is the first year he'll get a sizable salary, and it's only going to go up from here. The Giants would listen to trade offers, I'm guessing, but he's merely a solid value now, not the hilariously underpaid bargain he used to be. There won't be top-25 or even top-50 prospects coming back in a trade, so the Giants might as well pyeeay dat myeeean hees mahney and hope he can throw a few more strikes. He'll never be Greg Maddux, but he could at least be 2023 Camilo Doval.
Prediction: Tendered a contract
Tyler Rogers — $5.5 million estimate
There's a famous legend of World War II, possibly apocryphal, that soldiers would ask suspicious travelers posing as Americans to name a couple of baseball players or describe what a double play is. If they could answer correctly, they'd pass right through. If they stumbled, they were clearly Jerry and up to no good.
Tyler Rogers is like that, except instead of German spies, you're asking questions to suss out if someone actually knows baseball or if they're just a casual with "First Take" brain.
Do you think Rogers is an excellent reliever and has been for six seasons now? Good, good, you check out, pass on through.
Do you think he's a problem or a mop-up man miscast as a high-leverage reliever? Hmm, looks like you didn't pass the test and don't know ball. You'll have to leave. I heard football is nice this time of year. Go scream at a different sport.
Prediction: Tendered a contract
LaMonte Wade Jr. — $4.7 million estimate
He's not a perfect first baseman, to be sure. He's good for a trip to the IL or three every season. His defense at first is passable, but not superlative. He's one of the slowest players in baseball , which is a problem when a chunk of a player's value comes from taking walks.
But he helps teams win. He's held his own against lefties (in small samples) for the past two seasons, and he's a consistent offensive producer. He's just outside of the top 10 in baseball when it comes to first basemen with more than 400 plate appearances combined over the past two seasons . He's driven just over a third of the runs that Pete Alonso has over the same stretch, so don't rely on OPS+ too much. Playing time and power count for a whole lot.
Still, he helps. And it's also a sneaky good situation for a Giants team that's hoping Bryce Eldridge will debut sometime in 2025. The best possible situation is for Eldridge to arrive as a temporary solution without any pressure. Wade's creaky hamstrings and joints will provide those opportunities in the typical season, but he'll also help the Giants score more runs when he's in the lineup.
Prediction: Tendered a contract
Mike Yastrzemski — $9.5 million estimate
Yastrzemski is one of the streakier hitters in Giants history. In April, May and August, he was an automatic out. In June, July and September, he thumped. Add it all up, and you get a .302 OBP and a 110 OPS+. Not all that impressive. Maybe not $9.5 million impressive.
That would be the story here, except it leaves out his defense and baserunning, which are both excellent. His career WAR figures are hilarious:
So he's missing a 2.2, 2.3, 2.8 and a 2.9 WAR season to complete the set. Don't count him out.
The obvious outlier is 2020, except if that were a 162-game season, I'd expect months of slumps and months of hot spells to cancel the extremes out, and he'd still be in the same spot at the end of the season. He was gonna have a 2-something WAR if the season was two months or 30.
A list of every player with two wins or more in every season since Yastrzemski came into the big leagues (2019):
• Mookie Betts • José Ramírez • Freddie Freeman • Bryce Harper • Manny Machado • Corey Seager • Juan Soto • Trea Turner • Mike Yastrzemski
C'mon. You're at least a little impressed. This search takes advantage of the fluky 2020 dominance, but even if you go from 2021 and after , Yastrzemski's still in very, very good company.
Next season, the Giants will have Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee with mostly guaranteed spots. They'll have Luis Matos and Wade Meckler on the 40-man roster, and they're both interesting players to watch. And if the Giants have the opportunity to get a really productive outfielder like, oh, Juan Soto, it's time to make Yastrzemski a super-utility outfielder, if not trade him for a team in desperate need for outfield help.
Would that super-utility outfielder role be worth $9.5 million? Probably. It's hard to find players as good as Yastrzemski, even if you think it should be easier. The ability to play all three positions well is valuable, especially in the event of an injury to one of the more regular outfielders.
We'll see what Buster Posey thinks — it'll take years for that not to be weird — but my guess is that the Giants know what they have. Farhan Zaidi did before he was let go , and I'm assuming it wasn't a fringe position.
Prediction: Tendered a contract
If the Giants work out one-year deals for all of these players, as they should, here's what their payroll will look like entering the free-agent scrum:
There will be more opportunities for underpaid players. Spencer Bivens and Randy Rodríguez were both impressive, and they'll make pre-arbitration money. Hayden Birdsong is another consideration, as are all sorts of young starters, from Mason Black to Carson Whisenhunt .
Robbie Ray could change things if he opts into his $25 million salary for 2025, which is exactly where it needs to be to make him think. He could probably sign a two- or three-year deal with a bigger commitment, but he could also get paid $24.9 million more than you or I will and set himself up for an even more lucrative contract after that. My guess is that he opts in and bets on himself.
Either way, the Giants will have payroll to play with, even with the arbitration-eligible salaries, as well as the $20 million contract for Posey to be the first player-GM in history (just a recommendation). All of these Giants should be back, and that's probably a good thing.
(Top photo of Doval: Ron Chenoy / USA Today)
