The Lions, Cowboys and 49ers will get a Thanksgiving audition

In this mediocre sport that Tom Brady left behind, the traditional Thanksgiving NFL slate looks more like a tryout than a showcase. It just happens that every prominent contender to disrupt the Philadelphia Eagles’ redemption tour plays Thursday, providing a national audience the opportunity to evaluate the strength of a suspect conference during an all-NFC trio of games.

At 9-1 and full of savvy, the Eagles are a threat to become the first NFC team since the 1974 Minnesota Vikings to return to the Super Bowl after finishing as the runner-up the previous season. The Eagles aren’t as dominant this time, but quarterback Jalen Hurts remains a relentless winner. And they reside on the dilapidated side of the NFL. The AFC overflows with big-name quarterbacks, despite a few major injuries, and it features an overall level of depth that will create a dramatic late-season playoff race. By comparison, the NFC is in transition, with future Hall of Famers such as Brady and Drew Brees having retired and Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson switching conferences.

Standing in Philadelphia’s way are three teams that will be featured on this holiday: the Detroit Lions (8-2), who host the Green Bay Packers (4-6); the Dallas Cowboys (7-3), who host the Washington Commanders (4-7); and the San Francisco 49ers (7-3), who visit the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) in the only matchup that doesn’t look lopsided on paper.

In theory, a January divisional playoff round with Philadelphia, Detroit, Dallas and San Francisco would be wonderful. You can put together a compelling NFC championship game with any combination of those teams, and the winner would be a high-caliber Super Bowl representative. If this is the NFC in a down year, perhaps its struggles are overblown. Or rather, the concept of a weak NFC should be reframed to note that it is severely top-heavy.

Eleven AFC teams have records of .500 or better. In the NFC, there are seven. Philadelphia has a five-game lead over the 11th-best NFC team, while only two-and-a-half games separate the first and 11th teams in the AFC. Unless there is an NFC wild-card team destined to finish below .500, you can almost write most of the conference’s playoff field in ink with seven weeks to go: Philadelphia, Detroit, Dallas and San Francisco only have a little work left to do. Seattle is amid a tough four-game stretch, but the Seahawks are a fairly safe bet. Minnesota (6-5) has more work to do, but the Vikings are in decent shape.

It seems only the NFC South division winner is in serious doubt. There is enough season left for one of the five NFC teams with four wins — Green Bay, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, the Los Angeles Rams and Washington — to get hot and enter the wild-card picture. But what reason exists to trust any of those flawed squads?

At the same time, there are trust issues at the top. When considering the hopes of the Eagles, Lions, Cowboys and 49ers, it takes a lot of history defiance to pick any of them.

The Eagles are easy to believe in, except for that persistent hex on Super Bowl losers. Since the 1972 Miami Dolphins went undefeated a season after losing in the big game, only the 2018 New England Patriots have gone from runner-up to champion the next season. No NFC runner-up accomplished that since the 1971 Cowboys avenged a Super Bowl V loss by defeating Miami in Super Bowl VI, setting up the Dolphins’ drive for perfection.

With new offensive and defensive coordinators this season and opponents more familiar with their tactics, the Eagles have had to grind. Seven of their 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less; they won six of them. They earned three signature victories in their past four outings, beating Miami and Dallas and then rallying in the second half for a 21-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in a much-hyped Super Bowl rematch Monday. Philadelphia doesn’t create separation in games as it did last season after adding wide receiver A.J. Brown, but in some ways, this team is just as scary because it is so tested. Still, the historical mountain the Eagles must climb is as formidable as the competition.

The Lions are fresh and exhilarating , but they’re also an untested bunch closing in on the franchise’s first division title in 30 years. Detroit has won one playoff game since 1957. It seems like ancient history, until it isn’t. In January, carefree joy over this breakthrough will become more stressful for Coach Dan Campbell’s squad.

For all the Cowboys’ tradition, they’ve had a nasty playoff habit over the past 27 years of losing in the most heartbreaking or humiliating fashion. If Dallas, which trails Philadelphia by two games in the NFC East, can’t win the division, the Cowboys will be no better than a No. 5 seed required to win on the road during the postseason.

Then there is San Francisco, the most talented and physically imposing team in the NFL. If healthy enough, the 49ers are capable of a dominant championship run. But their bruising and athletic style of play makes them susceptible to injuries. Maybe this is the year they get lucky (enough) and win it all. But their track record of misfortune under Coach Kyle Shanahan suggests the 49ers — who just lost all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga to a season-ending ACL injury — will have to overcome something devastating.

Whether judging the AFC or NFC, there’s a consistent theme: plenty to like, very little to love. It’s so worrisome that Brady, who retired for a second time in February , apparently has trouble watching.

“There’s a lot of mediocrity in today’s NFL,” Brady said Monday during an interview on Stephen A. Smith’s YouTube show. “I don’t see the excellence that I saw in the past.”

Brady went from an ageless wonder to a grumpy old man in record time. But he’s not wrong. If you can take a step back from the NFL obsession, you don’t need Brady’s trained eye to notice all the quality-of-play flaws.

But parity covers most of the league’s blemishes, its unpredictability fueling the interest of die-hard fans and gambling addicts. At the end of every discussion about who can’t win, there’s the inevitability that some team will, and the margin figures to be too close to ignore. In this sense, what the NFL is not triggers appreciation of what it is.

And so the NFC — the land of dubious contenders — figures to have stashed away something that resembles excellence in all that mediocrity.