The Unaffiliated | Colorado’s election overhaul ballot measure is poised to pass, poll shows
That's according to a new poll commissioned by Colorado Voters First, the organization supporting Proposition 131. The poll was conducted among 800 likely voters from Aug. 28 to Sept. 1 by Colorado pollster Keating Research, a Democratic firm with a track record of getting it right. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Fifty-six percent of those polled said they would vote "yes" on the initiative, while another 8% said they were leaning toward voting "yes" on it. Twenty-one percent said they would vote "no," while another 4% said they were leaning toward voting "no." Eleven percent said they were not sure how they would vote or that they were completely undecided.
Even though the poll is a bit dated, that represents a strong position for the measure as Election Day approaches. And with Colorado Voters First planning to spend millions of dollars on ads to shore up support for Proposition 131 and not much money being dedicated to oppose the initiative, those numbers may only increase for the supporters.
Colorado Voters First had raised $8.4 million through Sept. 11, spending $6.15 million of that haul. Voter Rights Colorado, a group backed by a list of progressive organizations that opposes Proposition 131, had raised $35,000 through Sept. 11, spending $10,000 of that sum.
"We don't take anything for granted, but with the benefit of early advertising introducing our measure to voters, Prop 131 easily exceeds 60% support," Monica Burton, a spokeswoman for Colorado Voters First, said in a written statement. "There's a long way to go, and we aren't taking our foot off the gas pedal, but it is clear voters are hungry for a policy shift that gives all Coloradans a voice and a vote that matters in our elections."
In another boost for the supporters of Proposition 131, Gov. Jared Polis on Thursday endorsed the measure.
"While Colorado has among the best voter integrity and access protections, no system of voting is perfect, and I think instant runoff voting is better than our current system because it gives voters more choices," Polis wrote in a Facebook post. "I'm hopeful that if it passes it will encourage participation and improve our democracy."
For the record: This was not a push poll. Poll participants were simply read the 157-word ballot measure and asked how they would vote on it. There was message testing, but that happened later on in the poll process.
Colorado Voters First didn't release the results of the message testing it did, but a spokesperson said "support for Prop 131 increased after testing pro and con messages."
The party registration of those polled was 44% unaffiliated, 29% Democratic and 26% Republican. That roughly mirrors voter registration in Colorado.
Poll participants were also asked if they think things in Colorado are heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction. Forty-five percent said right direction, while 47% said wrong direction and 7% said they didn't know or were unsure.
Including Colorado, there are all-candidate primary measures on the ballot in six states this year. And the financial fingerprints of former DaVita CEO Kent Thiry and Unite America, the election reform nonprofit that he serves as board co-chair of, are on many of them.
A spokesman for Unite America says the group has spent money in all six states and that the group may spend as much as $70 million this year. Unite America donates a lot of its money through its associated federal political action committee, Unite America PAC Inc.
"We're proud to be invested in the record number of open primary initiatives on state ballots this year, and to support this growing voter-led movement for a more representative and functional government," Unite America Executive Director Nick Troiano said in a written statement.
In Idaho, campaign finance report show Unite America has donated about $375,000 this year to Idahoans for Open Primaries and associated committees, which are supporting a measure in that state that would enact an all-candidate primary where the top four vote-getters advance to a ranked choice general election.
In Nevada, Unite America has given at least $1.5 million this year to Yes on 3, the committee supporting the measure in that state that would enact an all-candidate primary where the top five vote-getters advance to a ranked choice general election. In 2022, Unite America gave about $1.2 million supporting Nevada Voters First, a committee that supported the same measure that year. (In Nevada, ballot measures amending the state constitution must be approved in two successive general elections to go into effect. The 2022 initiative passed with 53% of the vote.)
Thiry donated at least $400,000 to Nevada Voters First, according to campaign finance reports.
Unite America has also been active in Alaska this year, where there's a measure on the November ballot that would undo that state's all-candidate primary and ranked choice general elections.
The group reported donating $2 million in August to No on 2, the committee opposing the initiative. That figure is likely to rise.
There are also all-candidate primary measures on the ballot in South Dakota and Montana. We couldn't find signs of Unite America or Thiry spending in those states, but their campaign finance reporting systems are difficult to sift through and their reporting requirements may be much different than those in Colorado, Alaska, Idaho and Nevada.
In Colorado, Unite America had given $4.7 million as of Sept. 11 to Colorado Voters First, the organization supporting Proposition 131, while Thiry had given the committee $1.4 million.
Unite America doesn't report its donors. Its associated federal political action committee, however, does , and its major contributors include Kathryn Murdoch, the daughter-in-law of Rupert MurdochMarc Merrill, co-founder of Riot Games; Arthur Blank, co-founder of Home Depot; and Thiry. Merrill and Murdoch are co-chairs of the Unite America board.
So you know: In Missouri, there's a measure on the November statewide ballot — Amendment 7 —that would prohibit ranked choice voting and changes to the state's primary system. The proposed constitutional amendment was referred to the ballot by the state's Republican legislature.
In Oregon, Measure 117 would enact ranked choice voting for primaries and general elections.
A spokesperson for Unite America said the group has made six-figure investments in South Dakota and Montana, as well as in Oregon. The group is also spending at least $100,000 in Washington, D.C., where a ballot measure would enact ranked choice voting and let unaffiliated voters cast ballots in primaries and; Ohio, where redistricting reforms are on the ballot ; and North Dakota, where voters will decide on changes to the initiative and referendum process .
THE NARRATIVE PERA cuts hit retirees harder than expectedWhen the Colorado Public Employees' Retirement Association put together its recommendations for the pension overhaul passed by the legislature in 2018, board members sought to spare retirees as much as possible from the financial pain to come.
But six years later, retirees could be poised to lose the most money of anyone as PERA tries to climb out of what was initially a $32 billion hole.
Here's how the costs would have been shared under the plan initially endorsed by PERA's board :
The version that lawmakers passed in Senate Bill 200 envisioned a similar split, with retirees covering 19% of the costs, while workers were on tap for 57%. The state was expected to chip in 16% through a $225 million annual payment to the pension, while public employers were only supposed to cover 8% of the cost — a nod to the budget challenges faced by school districts.
In reality, retirees have lost much more money than anyone predicted in 2018, according to new figures presented Thursday to PERA's board.
Under Senate Bill 200, retiree cost-of-living raises were eliminated for a year, then reduced to 1.5% annually from 2%. Trouble is, financial problems have triggered two more rounds of benefit cuts already, cutting the annual cost of living adjustment to 1%, even as inflation hit its highest level in decades following the pandemic.
To date, here's how the costs have broken down:
If financial conditions trigger another round or two of benefit cuts, retirees could soon find themselves paying the most of any group to get PERA back on track. (Employee and employer contributions also increase automatically when benefit cuts are triggered, but the costs to retirees is higher, PERA's new figures show.)
At this week's planning retreat in Colorado Springs, PERA board members started kicking around ideas to provide some relief to struggling seniors.
One possibility offered by Chairman Marcus Pennell: restoring 2% cost-of-living raises to those 80 and older, who are less likely to be able to return to work to supplement their shrinking pension.
The trick is how to pay for it without setting PERA's finances further behind — and inadvertently triggering more benefit cuts for everyone else.
THE POLITICAL TICKERJeff Hurd is running his first ad in the 3rd Congressional District general election. In the 30-second spot , the Grand Junction attorney talks about his desire to improve rural health care. Meanwhile, Democrat Adam Frisch, Hurd's opponent, is running a new attack ad that slams Hurd's career as a corporate lawyer.
CLUB 20Want to watch the Club 20 debates in Grand Junction on Saturday? There's a livestream: . The featured debate at the end of the day will be the first face off between Republican Jeff Hurd and Democrat Adam Frisch, who are running to represent the 3rd Congressional District.
Former President Donald Trump this week endorsed Republican Jeff Crank in Colorado's 5th Congressional District. In a post on Truth Social , Trump called Crank "a conservative warrior who has incredible support from his community."
Trump previously endorsed Crank's Republican primary opponent, Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams.
One Colorado PAC, the state campaign spending committee associated with One Colorado, the LGBTQ advocacy group, endorsed one Republican legislative candidate this year: Republican state Sen. Cleave Simpson of Alamosa. The group also endorsed Simpson's Democratic challenger in Senate District 6, Vivian Smotherman, a transgender Navy veteran who lives in Durango.
THE LOBBYDr. Kim Warner has been named the new president of the Colorado Medical Society. She previously served on the group's board of directors from 2007 to 2014, and since then has served as head of government regulations.
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YOU HEARD IT HEREThings are starting to get a bit chippy in the highly competitive 8th Congressional District.
Caraveo and Evans have been trading attack ads and news conferences in recent days with less than a month before ballots start being mailed to voters.
Caraveo is focusing her message on Evans being too extreme for the 8th District, while Evans is blaming Caraveo for the porous U.S.-Mexico border and drug crime.
This week, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC linked to House Speaker Mike Johnson, launched a new TV ad attacking Caraveo over immigration.
Meanwhile, America PAC, the federal political action committee associated with billionaire Elon Musk, has spent about $82,000 so far to help Evans. Musk is spending money in competitive congressional races across the country.
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