Though Cubs won’t target top free agents, they’re well positioned to make trades
SAN ANTONIO – The pressure on the Chicago Cubs' front office to make the playoffs next year was a topic of conversation this week at Major League Baseball's general manager meetings in Texas. Any talk about the hot seat, though, has to acknowledge that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins have consistently followed the long-term plan authorized by the Ricketts family, and worked within ownership's budgetary parameters, trying to deliver sustained success instead of a one-year fluke.
The Cubs do not intend to deviate from this course, multiple sources told The Athletic, ruling out a pursuit of Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes even before all the baseball executives and agents checked out of the JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa. Rather than pursuing talent at the top of the free agent market, the Cubs appear positioned to make noise in the trade market.
The Cubs have eight of the sport's top 100 prospects, according to MLB.com, giving them trade chips to go with roughly $50 million in payroll flexibility.
And though the likes of Soto and Burnes are likely out of reach, more modest free-agent options could align with the Cubs. Travis d'Arnaud, the veteran catcher with 14 rounds of playoff experience, is on their radar. So is Roki Sasaki, the dynamic Japanese pitcher who might become available to MLB clubs this winter.
Pitching will remain the Cubs' biggest focus.
"You watch the postseason and you need a lot of arms to get through the entire marathon now," Hoyer said. "I think we felt like we were in really good shape going into last year. We had as much pitching depth as we've had. Even with that, a lot of guys went down and we were scrambling. Like everybody here, we're looking for as many quality arms as possible. And hopefully we can keep as many healthy as possible."
The computer doesn't tell the Cubs what to do. The team's "Ivy" system — a platform fully loaded with video, scouting reports and statistical analysis — illustrates a player's value. It's a tool to evaluate trades, free agents and draft prospects. But it does not dictate strategy, and it does not exist in a vacuum.
The Cubs' model, however, will be used in evaluating pitchers and forecasting future performances, bringing some consistency into the process. That takes some — not all — of the bias and noise out of the equation.
The Cubs are also not completely oblivious to the growing impatience with this rebuild or the pressure to get 3 million fans into Wrigley Field and put a more compelling product on their TV network.
This is where Hoyer's vast experience comes into play. He was in the room when Theo Epstein met with Alex Rodriguez at the Four Seasons in New York, trying to hammer out a failed deal to bring A-Rod to Fenway Park. Hoyer once had Thanksgiving dinner at Curt Schilling's Arizona home, dealing with food poisoning while negotiating with Epstein to get Schilling to agree to a trade and a contract extension. Hoyer's fingerprints are all over the 2004 Boston Red Sox and the 2016 Cubs, two of the most legendary baseball teams ever.
This time, however, it doesn't feel like the Cubs are trying to compete player for player, dollar for dollar, with the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers . Those big-market teams simply have bigger budgets and more robust scouting staffs. The Cubs have to decide how best to allocate their resources, which are ample in baseball operations but not necessarily overpowering.
Choosing to skip the top of the free-agent market puts more pressure on their decision-making. Spending big money can be seen as a risk because if that deal turns out to be bad, there is a huge financial cost to the mistake. But spending on players like Soto, Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani really isn't that big of a risk. Those superstars come with a great amount of certainty that those front years — at the very least — of the contract will deliver elite production.
The Cubs are dealing with a bit more volatility and variance when they sign Shota Imanaga out of Japan or acquire Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers. At the same time, the game is hurtling in this direction. One ex-Cubs player described Ivy as light years ahead of the rudimentary platform he accessed with his next team. That system is ever-evolving, and its inputs are shaped by scouts' opinions. Ultimately, the Cubs just have to be right.
"We have models designed to assist in decision-making," Cubs assistant GM Ehsan Bokhari said. "These models take in all the useful information we have, including (what's) coming from scouts. Our models help guide us to making more consistent and reliable decisions, but they're not making the decisions for us. I think of the models as a GPS in our car, not a self-driving car."
(Photo of Travis d'Arnaud: Kevin C. Cox / )
