Tipsheet: Juan Soto puts Scott Boras back in control of the baseball marketplace
Scott Boras is poised to become the Comeback Agent of the Year.
After overplaying his hand during the previous offseason –- leading to bad outcomes to former Cardinals hurler Jordan Montgomery, among others –- he holds extremely strong cards this time around.
He is pitting the New York Yankees and New York Mets against each other in the Juan Soto Sweepstakes, while inviting other franchises to get silly.
The Mets seem best positioned to win the bidding, since owner Steve Cohen reeled in his spending last winter to set the stage for an "all n" play for Soto. The Mets could let first baseman Pete Alonso leave as a free agent, sign Soto, then make a value add at first base.
Speaking in Spanish to reporters on Puerto Rico, Carlos Beltran, the special assistant to Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, sounded especially optimistic.
"The Mets want to improve the team and there's no doubt they'll go after all the players on the market, knowing that the piece the whole world wants in Juan Soto, and the Mets won't hesitate to go after him full blast," Beltran said.
"The owner of the Mets is one of the wealthiest in the game and he wants to wn When he says he wants to win, he doesn't say it so the fans will get excited and go to the ballpark. Really, it's something personal for him."
Boras has plenty more assets to market, as Andy McCullough noted in The Athletic:
During the past four decades, no agent has been more effective at extracting money from baseball's ownership class than Boras, even in an era where more and more teams are emphasizing austerity. His clients netted more than $1 billion in free agency after the 2019 season. He figures to easily surpass that number this winter. Boras represents eight of the top 16 free agents, according to The Athletic. Soto will command the highest price tag, with a present-day value expected to exceed Shohei Ohtani's heavily deferred $700 million deal. But the rest of his client list includes former Cy Young Award winners (Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell), a former home run derby champ (Pete Alonso) and a crucial cog on two championship teams (Alex Bregman) . . .
No agency has more available talent than he does this winter. He will take the group to the market facing a gale of headwinds not dissimilar to the challenges he faced last winter, according to interviews with MLB executives and rival agents, who requested anonymity to speak freely. Some teams continue to grapple with the uncertainty about television deals. Some owners are wary of spending when the expanded postseason offers easier access to a championship. And some executives are increasingly skeptical about the value of long-term contracts for pitchers.
This winter will test the ability of Boras, still spinning out linguistic gems and advocating for his clients at 72, to sell the commodity around which he has built his business — and his influence.
Here is what folks are writing about the Hot Stove League:
David Schoenfield, ESPN.com : "Snell finished 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts and 104 innings in 2024. So why would things be different this year? It's the same pitcher, with the same weaknesses (concerns about durability, strike-throwing and consistency) and strengths (best lefty stuff in the game out of maybe Tarik Skubal, ability to dominate for stretches). Well, Boras and Snell probably will play it differently this time, but it's also important to highlight what Snell did after returning July 9 from injury: a 1.23 ERA and .382 OPS allowed over his 14 final starts. That stretch continues a career-long trend of Snell's where he pitches much better in the second half - and is capable of these epic unhittable runs: see 2018 (1.25 ERA over final 16 starts), 2021 (1.83 ERA over final eight starts), 2022 (2.19 ERA over final 14 starts) and 2023 (1.23 ERA over final 21 starts). That's why it's worth rolling the dice on him. All starting pitchers are risky, but Snell, if he's on one of those late-season rolls, is the one who could be a difference-maker in the playoffs. He's a guy to gamble on, maybe not necessarily to get a team to the playoffs, but for a team that feels confident it's already going to be there and needs that extra shot of October espresso."
Mike Axisa, CBSSports.com : "Think about it. The Dodgers need neither a first baseman (Freddie Freeman) nor a DH (Shohei Ohtani). The Phillies are set too (Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber), as are the Braves (Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna). The Yankees have a DH (Giancarlo Stanton) but not a first baseman, and Juan Soto will be their priority. The Red Sox are set at first base (Triston Casas) and DH (Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, etc.). If the Blue Jays spend big on a first baseman, it'll be to retain Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With the caveat that surprising teams enter the mix every offseason, Alonso's market in the early days of the offseason appears to include the Astros, the Mets, maybe the Giants, maybe the Mariners, and that's probably it? Teams like the Rangers and Twins (and Diamondbacks) could make sense, though they're caught up in the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy, and probably won't increase payroll in a way that is needed to afford Alonso. Alonso can't move to a new position on the field either. He is what he is, and it limits his market. Furthermore, there is another pretty good free-agent first baseman available this offseason: Christian Walker. Walker's offensive production the last few years is very similar to Alonso's and he's a much better defender (he might be the best defensive first baseman in the game). Walker turns 34 in March, so he's several years older than Alonso, which just means the contract offers will be smaller. Teams could view Walker on a 2-3 year deal as much more desirable than Alonso on whatever Boras wants."
Gabe Lacques, USA Today: "The smoke signals are hovering: Yes, it appears the Orioles are going to spend some cash this winter. With new owner David Rubenstein's proclamation he's not getting any younger to super agent Scott Boras's plausible punnery from the GM meetings, Baltimore seems poised to break nearly two decades of largely sitting out the market for major free agents. Will the Orioles enjoy any advantage of incumbency with Burnes? With Boras as his agent, the dollar likely speaks loudest. But Burnes pitched really well in Baltimore, his 2.92 ERA his lowest since a career-best 2.43 mark in his NL Cy Young campaign of 2021. His home runs per nine innings stayed steady at 1.0 and while his hits per nine jumped to 7.6, he gave up just 22 extra-base hits in 17 starts at Camden Yards. The Orioles have moved on from director of pitching Chris Holt, but pitching coach Drew French returns. GM Mike Elias has built an infrastructure that enables players to find their ceilings. In reality, perhaps the Orioles' more realistic price point on the market is lefty Max Fried or slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández. But Burnes at least knows he realized just about the best version of himself in Baltimore."
Buster Olney, ESPN.com : "This winter, (Garrell) Crochet's value will be heightened as the best alternative to the more expensive free agent starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried will likely each make more in a couple of months of their forthcoming deals than Crochet has made in his career, to date. It goes without saying that any team could use someone like Crochet, whose strikeout-to-walk ratio in the first innings of games was 23.5, and who held opponents to a .189 average when he faced hitters for a third plate appearance in his starts. But there are probably only a handful of teams that would be willing to pay the high prospect price for Crochet, with two more years remaining before he'll become eligible for free agency. (The presumption among multiple evaluators involved in the Crochet trade talks is that the team that acquires him will negotiate the contract extension he wants - perhaps in January, when Crochet is scheduled to go through arbitration.)"
Jake Mailhot, FanGraphs: "When Cody Bellinger opted into his contract for 2025, the Cubs had one of their big offseason questions answered. His return means the lineup is pretty locked in for next year, even if it was fairly average in 2024 (12th by runs scored, 14th by wRC+). Instead of addressing the offense, Chicago will need to improve their bullpen and possibly find some starting pitching depth. With the NL Central wide open for the taking, a few key additions could push the Cubs' window of contention wide open."
"Soto has the numbers, so it's not as if Boras has to fool anyone. Rather he's going to sell his product for what it is, high quality, consistent, young, with playoff experience and one who has remained healthy over the years."
Mets executive Carlos Beltran, on Soto.
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