Too few results in to determine fate of abortion measure

As of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday, it's too early to call the results on a Montana ballot measure that, if passed, would add an explicit right to an abortion to the state Constitution.

According to the Montana Secretary of State's Office, Constitutional Initiative 128 has received 54% of votes with about 6% of precincts reporting, many of which come from counties considered heavily Republican.

CI-128 is a citizen-led measure that "expressly provides a right to make and carry out decisions about one's pregnancy," including the right to an abortion. It allows for abortion later in pregnancy if a health care professional determines it is "medically indicated" to protect the life or health of the mother and safeguards medical practitioners against legal prosecution for performing the procedure.

Should the ballot measure pass, it will amend the Montana Constitution to protect abortion up to fetal viability, language similar to what was used in protections under Roe before it was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. Fetal viability is defined as the point in pregnancy at which a health provider determines a fetus can likely survive outside the womb without significant medical intervention.

Abortion has long been legal in Montana under the state's robust right to privacy. But passage of CI-128 would make future attempts at curbing access from the statehouse far more difficult.

At a watch party in Bozeman hosted by Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights, the coalition behind the ballot measure, the mood was cautiously optimistic as returns rolled in on election night. MSRR is made up of groups with largely local leadership such as Forward Montana, Planned Parenthood of Montana and the ACLU of Montana.

Against the backdrop of a projector displaying national election results, an acoustic guitar player sang dulcet tones as a few dozen supporters streamed into the Rialto in downtown Bozeman on Tuesday night. Crooning soon transitioned to conversation among supporters, some donning "Yes on 128" gear as they noshed on finger foods. For many in attendance, election night marks the culmination of two years of tireless work to protect abortion in Montana after the Dobbs decision.

Christopher Coburn, president of MSRR, told attendees that though it was still early "we are feeling really good."

Since Roe's dismantling in 2022, Republican-led state governments all over the country have enacted severe abortion restrictions. Montana lawmakers tried to claw back abortion access with multiple laws in the state Legislature, but attempts were struck down in court due to the privacy protections.

As such, Montana is the only state in its regional vicinity where women can still legally and somewhat accessibly seek an abortion. There are six clinics in Montana that provide abortions. Of those, four who conduct abortions say they only do so through the first trimester.

Reproductive rights advocates cautioned throughout this campaign that Republicans in the Capitol won't stop trying to restrict abortion so long as Roe is not the national standard. That's why making abortion a constitutional right through CI-128 is so essential, MSRR said repeatedly in recent months.

Formal opposition to CI-128 was led predominantly by organizations such as the Montana Family Foundation, the Montana Life Defense Fund, Students for Life Montana and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. The Catholic Church got involved, too. Bishops from the state's two dioceses issued a letter to their roughly 75,000 congregants calling on them to vote against the measure.

MSRR submitted more than double the required number of signatures back in June to get CI-128 on the ballot, showing a groundswell of support from voters registered in both political parties, it said at the time.

"I'm so hopeful that, collectively, we're on the precipice of doing something truly remarkable," Coburn said early in the evening Tuesday. "[That's] showing the world that Montana, this big state with just a few people, has the power to protect the rights that we hold most dear."

Critics countered that MSRR received millions of dollars in donations from out-of-state 501(c)(4) organizations, considered dark money groups because the nonprofits don't have to disclose their donors. Those groups include the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Washington D.C.-based firm that supports "progressive" causes nationwide and the Global Impact Social Welfare Fund out of Virginia.

But money from outside Montana flowed into anti-abortion causes as well, according to public information. Donors from all over the country gave money to the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America group, which seeks to eliminate abortion, and has played an active role in Montana this election cycle.

While spirits are cautiously buoyant on Tuesday at the MSRR event, Democrats running for statewide office faced an even steeper uphill battle. The Associated Press called the race for governor almost as soon as polls closed, giving incumbent Republican Greg Gianforte the win.

Three-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, who spent election night in Great Falls, is vying for a victory against political newcomer Republican Tim Sheehy in a hotly contested race.

Though MSRR positioned abortion as a non-partisan issue, the fact is that reproductive rights are central to the Democratic platform and an issue party operatives hoped would turn out voters likely to support their candidates.

Candidates up and down the ballot in Montana said it was one of their main motivations to run for public office. Tester drove home his support of reproductive freedom as a stark distinction between himself and Sheehy. Democratic candidates nationally were encouraged to "hammer on abortion," described by one report as a "Republican wedge issue that is working for us and a believable starting point."

Montana is one of 10 states with a ballot measure to protect abortion rights this November.

As of publication, a measure to protect abortion through fetal viability in Florida had failed, making it one of the first of these initiatives to pass since Roe was overturned two years ago. Florida required the measure to secure 60% of the vote in order to pass.

Voters moved to protect abortion rights in Maryland and Missouri.

Carly Graf is the State Bureau health care reporter for Lee Montana.

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State Bureau Health Care Reporter