News

Trump’s economic scorecard

J.Jones2 hr ago
President-elect Donald Trump, a Republican, won 91 of Nebraska's 93 counties in the Nov. 5 election. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, won Douglas and Lancaster Counties, the state's two most populous.

Whew ... the election is finally over! America has spoken and there will be no post-election drama contesting who won. Former President Donald Trump, as we all know, won election night. Last count he garnered 51% of the popular vote. Nebraska was even more supportive of Trump, giving him 60% of its vote. In the Cornhusker State, Trump carried majorities in 91 of 93 counties, with only Lancaster (Lincoln) and Douglas (Omaha) voting for Vice President Kamala Harris.

During the campaign, candidates Trump and Harris made a lot of economic promises to American voters. According to ABC and Election Day exit polls, "Deep economic discontent with [President Joe] Biden drove voters to Trump."

Trump is stating he has a mandate for dramatic economic change. This time around he has a case with winning a supermajority of the states and the Electoral College. He has considerable support in Congress and the courts for his economic agenda. Given this mandate, it is now time to see what happens with his proposed economic agenda, and likely impacts. His Nebraska mandate is more definitive.

Rooted in this substantial change agenda, there are five key economic proposals we should pay close attention to over the coming years:

Trade and tariffs

Inflation and lower costs

Tax cuts

Immigrant deportations

The Federal Reserve

Trump is proposing trade tariffs at a level unprecedented in modern times, arguing they would strengthen America's economy and help balance U.S. deficits and debt. He argued that his policies would lower consumer and business costs from housing to gasoline to eating out. During the campaign he made pledges to eliminate taxes, including on Social Security, tips, overtime benefiting average Americans, and continuation of the Trump-enacted 2017 Taxes and Jobs Act primarily benefiting corporations and the wealthy.

Another economic promise is the deportation of "millions" of immigrants lacking permanent legal status. While this promise may not appear to be an economic issue, it is promoted by Trump as a solution to immigrant pressures on everything from housing affordability to access to jobs. Finally, Trump is suggesting that he, as the president, should have greater influence within the U.S. Federal Reserve, monetary policy and, most importantly, interest rates.

Our first task is to see what becomes real. Our second task is to assess the intended and unintended consequences of these proposed economic policies.

Ultimately, enacted Trump policies will have ramifications for our economic future beginning with changes in federal deficits and debt. Remember the U.S. government is America's largest borrower. Next, we must see what happens to interest rates and inflation. Changes in interest rates and inflation directly impact us all, including consumer and business costs. These policies will have a cumulative impact on economic performance, tax revenues and the capacity of the U.S. government to honor its commitments to everything from Social Security and Medicare to farm programs, and even our national parks.

It is too soon to speculate, let alone make judgment on Trump's economic plans. For heaven's sake, he will not become president until January 2025. But it is not too soon to pay close attention as Trump, his running mate J.D. Vance, and Trump's advisers are promising a quick start out of the blocks in the new year and rapid action on many of these policies. For example, President Trump through executive action can raise tariffs, and so we may see quickly promised 20% tariffs on all imports, a 25% tariff on Mexican imports and 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

Trump is a populist and promises to "Make America Great Again" rooted in economic pledges to lower taxes, reduce regulation, remove immigrants from the country, lower interest rates and most importantly, return costs to where they were before Biden took office in 2021.

There will be intended and unintended consequences, both short-term and over time. For now, we must wait and see what happens. For me, I will use this Trump economic scorecard to keep track and share the evolving story in the months and years to come.

0 Comments
0