Tuesday MACtion predictions, odds, picks: Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo

Eastern Michigan quarterback Austin Smith (19) looks to pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Arizona State Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Tempe, Ariz. (Darryl Webb/AP)

The grand finale of weekday MACtion is upon us. With no Wednesday games in the lineup this week, Tuesday brings us a MACtion doubleheader featuring Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green.

Let’s take a look at the betting edges in each game.

Bowling Green vs. Western MichiganTime: TV:

The decisive factor in this game hinges on which team can consistently churn out yards on the ground. Both teams own rankings in the top 50 for rush rate, but over the past month, the metrics clearly favor Bowling Green.

Over the last four weeks, Western Michigan has had difficulty stopping the run, landing in the bottom-10 among Group of Five teams in key categories such as stuff rate, line yards, rush success and power success. This poses a considerable challenge against the Falcons , who are 57th in the country in rush success.

WMU’s numbers aren’t much more encouraging, with the Broncos residing in the bottom-10 for rush predictive points added and rush explosiveness.

However, Bowling Green has superior tackling and coverage grades, per PFF, along with an edge in finishing drives on both sides of the ball.

Take the Falcons to get their seventh victory on the season.

Pick: Bowling Green ML -120

Eastern Michigan vs. BuffaloTime: TV: ESPN2

The total for this game, which opened at 41.5 but has since dropped to 36, is remarkably low. Back the underdog with just over a touchdown in a game featuring such a low total is too hard to resist.

The preferred bet is to take the points with Eastern Michigan at +6.5 or +7, but nothing lower than +6.

Scoring might be a challenge for EMU, but the Bulls could face similar difficulties. Buffalo ranks 130th nationally in offensive pass success, presenting challenges against an average EMU pass defense.

The Eagles hold the upper hand in finishing drives on both sides of the ball and boast higher grades in tackling and coverage, per PFF.

Considering their superior coaching and special teams, coupled with the Eagles’ motivation of becoming bowl eligible, the point spread seems excessive, especially with such a low total.

Take the visiting underdogs.

Pick: Eastern Michigan +6.5