Twins’ collapse is ‘Total System Failure’ 2.0, with a different Pohlad at the helm
MINNEAPOLIS — Early in the 2016 season, with the Minnesota Twins off to an 8-20 start following a winning campaign the previous year, owner Jim Pohlad uttered a now-infamous description of the team's poor play:
"Total system failure."
It never got any better, as the Twins ended up 59-103, the worst record in team history. They had the American League's worst pitching staff, giving up an astounding 128 more runs than the next-worst team. And key moves like signing Korean slugger Byung-ho Park, trading Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy and playing Miguel Sanó in right field failed spectacularly.
In mid-July, with the Twins headed for 90-plus losses for the fifth time in six seasons, longtime general manager Terry Ryan was fired, leaving his right-hand man, Rob Antony, to handle the trade deadline. Immediately after the season, the Twins hired Cleveland assistant general manager Derek Falvey as their new front office boss.
Eight seasons later, with Falvey still in that role and Jim Pohlad's nephew, Joe Pohlad, in the top ownership chair, the Twins have brought back painful memories of 2016's total system failure with arguably the worst collapse in team history . In prime playoff position with a 70-53 record through Aug. 17, the Twins finished 12-27 and were eliminated with two games remaining.
While going 59-103 in 2016, the Twins had a .364 winning percentage. While collapsing after mid-August this season, they lost 27 of 39 for a .308 winning percentage. Playing that badly for six weeks is much different than doing it for six months, but the quality of baseball was every bit as amateurish and, adding to the frustration, this team had shown it was capable of far better.
But from mid-August through the end of the season, basically a quarter of the entire 2024 schedule, the Twins ranked 25th out of 30 teams in runs scored and 28th in runs allowed. They ranked 24th in ERA from starters and 25th in ERA from relievers, and the lineup was 26th in OPS. Only the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox had a worse record in that span.
Joe Ryan and Brock Stewart were hurt for the entire collapse, Max Kepler played one September game and Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton missed all but the final two weeks. Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda combined to hit .190 with one homer in 221 at-bats. All starters other than Pablo López went 1-14 with a 5.80 ERA, and closer Jhoan Duran was 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA.
They hit, pitched and fielded horribly. Rookies and veterans slumped. Short starts and late-inning bullpen implosions were the norm. Relievers allowed inherited runners to score at historic rates and pinch hitters broke records for futility . They made countless mistakes running and coaching the bases. Seemingly every button pushed by manager Rocco Baldelli led to regret.
To be clear, this team is nowhere near as bad as the 2016 version. However, unlike that 2016 team, this year's Twins were preseason favorites to repeat as AL Central champions and coming off their first playoff series win in two decades, with aspirations of making an even deeper playoff run. This team expected to win, and did for three-quarters of the season, only to fall apart.
And whereas Jim Pohlad was largely a quote-giving bystander to the 2016 mess, Joe Pohlad slashed payroll by $30 million at a time when fan morale was soaring. That offseason decision can be directly linked to the Twins' on-field breakdown and this total system failure includes the owners every bit as much as the front office, the coaching staff and the players.
Falvey had essentially zero spending ability last offseason, ruling out any chance of re-signing Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray . In fact, the Twins needed to shed Jorge Polanco 's relatively modest $10.5 million salary just to create the payroll flexibility to fill out the roster with low-cost veteran depth such as Carlos Santana , a sound investment on a one-year, $5.25 million deal.
Unfortunately, the Twins whiffed on every other offseason pickup. Anthony DeSclafani never threw a pitch, Justin Topa made only a final-week cameo, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont and Steven Okert were cut before September and Manuel Margot played shaky defense with a punchless .621 OPS in 128 games, including a record-setting 0-for-30 mark as a pinch hitter.
There's no doubt ownership mandating a $30 million payroll drop severely limited the front office's options, pushing Falvey to shop in the scratch-and-dent aisle even more than usual and compromising their decision-making. But there's also no doubt the front office went 1-for-7 on offseason additions, striking out on everyone but Santana.
At the July 30 trade deadline, it was clear the Twins required pitching help, in part because of those offseason misfires. Yet despite a 58-48 record, the Twins' lone deadline deal was for journeyman reliever Trevor Richards , who raised the payroll by just $700,000. He was cut four weeks and 13 walk-filled innings later, another whiff by the front office.
Eventually, the missing $30 million and lack of help from veteran additions caught up with the Twins as injuries depleted depth. Stewart's season-ending shoulder surgery left a gaping hole in the bullpen and the revolving door of Triple-A arms and waiver fodder tried, but mostly failed, to patch it. Three rookies filled the rotation in place of Ryan, DeSclafani and Chris Paddack .
It was exactly what fans had feared all offseason, as bargain-bin pickups failed to produce and the team's lack of quality veteran depth was exposed by the six-month, 162-game marathon, leaving the Twins to run on fumes. It's hard to look at a team that missed the playoffs by four games and not assume an extra $30 million would have gotten it across the finish line.
It's also hard to fault the fans for reacting with disappointment, cynicism, frustration and, finally, apathy. Attendance at Target Field declined, which is nearly unheard of for any team coming off a division-winning season that featured long-awaited playoff success. But the Twins' owners made it tough to enjoy fandom, and they made it impossible for many to watch on television .
At times, it seemed almost as though Twins upper management was purposely trying to tank fan morale, on and off the field, and they were exceptionally good at it, although perhaps that's giving them too much credit. As the old adage goes, "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." Combining both is a dangerous, damaging mix.
Owners cut payroll and did nothing to improve the team's TV availability, actually making it even worse for much of the season. With fewer resources and lesser options, the front office exacerbated the problem by whiffing on nearly every move. And the team on the field crumbled under the weight of a playoff race, never receiving an ounce of outside help for a flawed roster.
But wait, it gets worse: There's no indication ownership plans to increase 2025 payroll following a season in which attendance was 300,000 shy of the team's internal projections, no playoff revenue was generated and various other income streams fell short. It's potentially a never-ending cycle in which a lower payroll leads to less winning, fan interest and revenue, and vice versa.
Twins sources with knowledge of the situation insist the team doesn't plan to further lower payroll after cutting spending from $160 million in 2023 to $130 million this season. However, when repeatedly asked payroll-related questions Sunday during an end-of-season interview, Joe Pohlad declined to give concrete answers , leading to natural skepticism.
This season was, maybe even more than Jim Pohlad's original uttering of the phrase, a total system failure, presided over by a different front office and manager, but governed by the same billionaire family obsessed with saving a sliver of their unfathomable wealth. They have no one to blame for it but themselves, but unfortunately, it's fans who are likely to suffer. Again.
As we learned the hard way this season, questionable or downright odious monetary and management decisions made by the business side of a team trickle down to the fan experience, roster and standings. Do the Twins have any real interest in fixing their mistakes and climbing out of this hole they dug? Fans have every reason to assume the worst until shown otherwise.
(Photo of Joe Pohlad and Carlos Correa in 2023: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / )
