Twins takeaways: Closing week playoff picture, Festa steps up, Margot makes history
This is one of the worst late-season collapses in Minnesota Twins history.
Desperately needing to halt their month-long free-fall during a road trip to Cleveland and Boston, the Twins instead went 2-5. They lost one-run games and extra-inning games. They got walked off and blown out. They lost with their top arms pitching and with waiver-wire fodder giving up leads. They struggled at the plate, in the field, on the mound and in the dugout.
Swept by the Boston Red Sox in Sunday's doubleheader at Fenway Park, the Twins are now 11-22 since Aug. 18 and have fallen out of playoff position. This goes well beyond a slump for a team that was 70-53, with playoff odds around 95 percent, five weeks ago. That's all vanished. The Twins now sit seventh in the race for one of the American League's six playoff spots.
And yet, if they can somehow manage to play halfway-decent baseball during this week's season-ending six-game homestand, they can still stumble into a wild-card spot that was the path for both of last season's World Series participants. Of course, that is asking a lot for a team that has won consecutive games just twice this month.
Detroit and Kansas City are now tied for the AL's second and third wild-card spots and the Twins are a game back while holding the tiebreaker — worth a half-game boost, basically — over both teams. Minnesota also has the tiebreaker over the Seattle Mariners , who are two games behind the Tigers and Royals, and one game behind the Twins.
Four teams competing for the last two playoff berths, and the Twins have the advantage of needing only to tie for one of the final two spots thanks to winning their season series against all three foes. And the closing week's schedule lends itself to drama even though none of the AL Central's wild-card hopefuls are playing one another.
In the Twins' case, they end with a pair of three-game series at Target Field versus the noncompetitive Miami Marlins , owners of the National League's worst record, and the Baltimore Orioles , who are all but locked into the AL's first wild-card spot. It's conceivable Baltimore won't have anything at stake for playoff positioning, which may benefit the Twins.
If the Orioles don't have to win games in the final weekend of the season, they may choose to rest key regulars or perhaps even bypass some of their better starting pitchers to line up their preferred playoff rotation. And with the No. 2 wild-card team bound for Baltimore for a best-of-three series, the Orioles are heavily invested in a race they have the ability to influence.
Ideally, the Twins would also like to line up Pablo López and Bailey Ober to pitch their first two playoff games, but that would require clinching a berth before the final weekend. While certainly possible, it's unlikely because the Tigers finish with three home games against the lowly Chicago White Sox . No one should count on getting any help from the White Sox this weekend.
If the Twins need wins versus the Orioles, they currently have López slated to start Friday and Ober on track to start the regular-season finale Sunday. Here's why that gets tricky: López pitching Friday would mean he couldn't pitch on regular rest until Game 2 of the playoffs. And if Ober goes Sunday, he wouldn't be able to pitch on regular rest in the first round at all.
That will all be a moot point if the Twins continue to play as poorly as they have for the past five weeks, and at this point they'd be thrilled to grab the third wild-card spot. That would almost surely come with a trip to Houston for a best-of-three series against the AL West champion Astros , who ended the Twins' playoff run last season.
But for any of that to matter, the Twins have to do something they haven't done in way too long: play good baseball.
David Festa steps up
David Festa took another major step in his development Friday, rewarding manager Rocco Baldelli for sticking with him in the fifth inning despite two Red Sox batters reaching base with one out. With his pitch count above 100 — or even 90 — for the first time, Festa got a double play to end the threat and keep the Twins' deficit at 1-0 in what became a comeback win.
Festa's first big-league stint was shaky, as he allowed 12 runs in two starts, but the 24-year-old rookie has looked far more comfortable since stepping into the Twins' rotation full-time to replace Chris Paddack coming out of the All-Star break. Festa has a 3.60 ERA with 64 strikeouts in 50 innings during that span, holding opponents to a .211 batting average and just five homers.
Working with Twins coaches to smooth out his mechanics and add velocity, he rose from a 13th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft to the team's No. 1 pitching prospect coming into 2024 . Festa now has the upside to be a playoff-caliber starter, with a high-octane three-pitch mix that features a mid-90s fastball and two swing-and-miss off-speed pitches.
Against right-handed hitters, he pairs the fastball mostly with his mid-80s slider, which has held opponents to a .184 batting average and generated a whiff on 28 percent of swings. Versus left-handed hitters, he leans more on his high-80s changeup, which has held opponents to a .225 batting average and generated a whiff on 40 percent of swings.
It's uncommon for a young starter to have two off-speed pitches effective enough that a mid-90s fastball is clearly the third-best offering. There's still room for improvement with Festa's overall command and fastball efficacy, but the 6-foot-6 right-hander already looks like a solid mid-rotation starter and has No. 2 starter upside with the potential to rack up tons of strikeouts.
Festa has struck out a rotation-high 28.1 percent of the batters he's faced, ahead of Joe Ryan (27.3), Ober (27.1) and López (25.9). In fact, Festa has the eighth-highest strikeout rate in Twins history for any pitcher with at least 10 starts in a season, and the Twins' only rookie starter with a higher strikeout rate was Francisco Liriano (30.4) in his otherworldly 2006.
Depending on what transpires this weekend, the Twins may need Festa to start a first-round playoff game, on the road, matching up with one of the AL's best lineups. In the meantime, his final regular-season start is slated for Thursday against the NL's lowest-scoring lineup. Festa's development has been a big key for the Twins and it might be about to get much bigger.
Manuel Margot makes history
Manuel Margot came off the bench Friday to bat for Christian Vázquez with two outs in the 11th inning, taking a called third strike to make him 0-for-30 as a pinch hitter this season. He now stands alone as MLB 's all-time record holder for hitless at-bats by a pinch hitter in a season, although Margot can still remove himself from that leaderboard with a hit during the final week.
What's especially remarkable about Margot's record-setting futility off the bench is that his 35 plate appearances (0-for-30 with five walks) are MLB's third-most by any pinch hitter this season. Baldelli has constantly turned to Margot, giving him 12 more pinch-hitting chances than the next most-used option, Kyle Farmer , who is 5-for-20 with two walks and a sacrifice fly.
About two-thirds of Margot's pinch-hitting appearances have come against a left-handed pitcher, and several others were initially against a lefty before the opposing manager countered with a righty. That makes sense, because Margot is a career .280 hitter with a .756 OPS versus lefties, including a .320 batting average versus lefties this season when not pinch hitting.
But that wasn't the case Friday, when Margot was chosen to face Red Sox right-hander Greg Weissert , who has held righties to a .617 OPS this season. Baldelli explained the decision to bypass fellow righties Farmer and Ryan Jeffers , and lefty Edouard Julien , by pointing to Margot's low strikeout rate as especially valuable with a runner on second base in a tie game.
It's correct that a single would likely have scored the go-ahead run, but low strikeout rate or not, Margot is a poor bet to get a single there. He's hit .203 versus righties this season and .241 off righties for his career, including going 6-for-38 (.158) as a pinch hitter. Baldelli keeps making losing bets on Margot and it's not clear the odds he's chasing are that good anyway.
And in general, it's hard to argue the Twins' frequent pinch hitting has paid off. Baldelli has used the AL's second-most pinch hitters this year (176), and they've hit just .196 with a .566 OPS. Baldelli has also used the AL's second-most pinch hitters since 2021 (595), and they've batted just .205 with a .609 OPS that ranks fifth-worst in the league in that span. It hasn't been a winning strategy.
(Photo of Byron Buxton: Winslow Townson / )
