UPDATED: Rain, snow expected as first winter event of 2024-25 season heads toward eastern North Dakota

Nov. 18—GRAND FORKS — A winter storm warning is in effect for counties in extreme northern North Dakota, and much of eastern North Dakota will likely experience at least some of the effects of a brewing winter-weather event expected to last through Wednesday.

Essentially, it means it's time for "that first feel of winter," WDAY meteorologist Lydia Blume said during her forecast Monday morning, Nov. 18.

The National Weather Service issued the warning Monday afternoon for Bottineau, Rolette, McHenry and Pierce counties. Also, a winter storm watch is in effect for Ramsey, Nelson, Benson, Eddy and Cavalier counties, along with a portion of Walsh County. A number of other communities and counties in central and northern North Dakota are in a winter weather advisory, stretching from roughly Carrington to Harvey, to Minot and Crosby.

Grand Forks and Fargo were not in any sort of warning, watch or advisory as of 4:30 p.m. Monday, although there was a wind advisory for Jamestown and other points west in southern and central North Dakota.

According to a National Weather Service graphic distributed to the media, there is a chance of heavy accumulation of snow around Bottineau, along the U.S.-Canada border. That's an update from an earlier advisory sent by the NWS, which noted the possibility of snow along the border but wasn't nearly as specific. The latest report shows that Tuesday could bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the immediate Bottineau area Tuesday afternoon and another 6 to 10 inches Tuesday evening.

"The highest amounts (will be) up near the international border, less as you travel farther down to the south," Blume said during her forecast Monday morning. "Rain is the first of the system. Really, first it's clouds and then the rain and then eventually the snow."

Blume's outlook called for rain to move into Fargo around suppertime Monday. The front will move northward from there, according to WDAY's weather model.

Communities in far eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota could see upwards of a half-inch to an inch of rain. Farther to the west, though, most of the precipitation more than likely will fall as snow.

"Snow continues to fall Tuesday afternoon into the evening before we get the back side of the system — the wraparound side of this — as we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning," Blume said. "Wednesday morning, (expect) patches of light snow and strong winds out of the northwest. So some blowing snow impacts, visibility impacts and slippery roads into Wednesday morning."

In Jamestown, Tuesday will bring an 80% chance of precipitation, according to the National Weather Service. Little or no snow is expected during the day, but snow is likely Tuesday evening and into Wednesday.

In Grand Forks, the NWS calls for a 100% chance of precipitation on Tuesday, with a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain possible. It will change to snow Tuesday evening and into Wednesday, when the high will only reach 29. Blustery winds will make it feel colder. Snow accumulations likely will not surpass 1 to 3 inches.

In Fargo, the NWS expects rain before 5 p.m. Tuesday, possibly mixed with snow. It's likely to turn to snow Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. Snow accumulations likely will not surpass 2 to 4 inches.

The likelihood of 6 inches or more of snow is 51% in Devils Lake and Langdon, 18% in Grand Forks and 25% in Fargo.

National Weather Service predictions show strong winds on Tuesday, with gusts above 45 mph possible for towns like Devils Lake and Carrington. Winds likely will be less intense in the Red River Valley, according to the NWS.

"These winds combined with falling snow create blowing snow impacts," the NWS noted. However, "confidence is low on the extent of the blowing snow within the Red River Valley and also the severity of the impacts."