US, Europe warn Hezbollah to ease strikes on Israel

WASHINGTON — U.S., European and Arab mediators are pressing to keep cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants from spiraling into a wider Middle East war that the world has feared for months.

Hopes are lagging for a cease-fire in Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza that would calm attacks by Hezbollah and other militias allied with Iran.

A senior Biden administration official said the U.S. presented new language to intermediaries Egypt and Qatar to try to jump-start stalled Israel-Hamas negotiations.

The official, who requested anonymity, said the revised text focuses on negotiations that are to start between Israel and Hamas during the first phase of a three-phase deal U.S. President Joe Biden laid out nearly a month ago.

In the meantime, American and European officials delivered warnings to Hezbollah — which is far stronger than Hamas — about taking on the military might of Israel, current and former diplomats say.

They warned that the group should not count on the U.S. or anyone else being able to hold off Israeli leaders if they decide to execute battle-ready plans for an offensive into Lebanon.

On both sides of the Lebanese border, escalating strikes between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the region's best-armed fighting forces, appeared at least to level off this past week. While daily strikes still pound the border area, the slight shift offered hope of easing immediate fears, which prompted the U.S. to send an amphibious assault ship with a Marine expeditionary force to join other warships in the area in hopes of deterring a wider conflict.

It's not clear whether Israel or Hezbollah decided to ratchet down attacks to avoid triggering an Israeli invasion into Lebanon, said Gerald Feierstein, a former senior U.S. diplomat in the Middle East. The message being delivered to Hezbollah is "don't think that you're as capable as you think you are," he said.

Beginning the day after Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel and vowed to continue until a cease-fire takes hold.

Israel hit back, with the violence forcing tens of thousands of civilians from the border in both countries. Attacks intensified in recent weeks after Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah responded with some of its biggest missile barrages.

U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said an "apocalyptic" war could result. Both Israel and Hezbollah, the dominant force in politically fractured Lebanon, have the power to cause heavy casualties.

"Such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said as he met recently with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon. "Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war, with terrible consequences for the Middle East."

Gallant, in response, said, "We are working closely together to achieve an agreement, but we must also discuss readiness on every possible scenario."

Analysts expect other Iran-allied militias in the region would respond far more forcefully than they have for Hamas, and some experts warn of ideologically motivated militants streaming into the region to join in. Europeans fear destabilizing refugee flows.

Iran sees Hezbollah as its strategically vital partner in the region — much more so than Hamas — and could be drawn in. Iran's U.N. mission said in a posting Saturday on X, formerly Twitter, that an "obliterating" war would ensue if Israel launches a full-scale attack in Lebanon.

While the U.S. helped Israel knock down a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones in April, the U.S. likely would not do as well assisting Israel's defense against any broader Hezbollah attacks, said Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is harder to fend off the shorter-range rockets that Hezbollah fires routinely across the border, he said.

"Obviously if it does look like things are going seriously south for the Israelis, the U.S. will intervene," Feierstein said. "I don't think that they would see any alternative to that."

The Israeli army is stretched after a nearly 9-month war in Gaza, and Hezbollah holds an estimated arsenal of about 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel.

Israeli leaders pledged to unleash Gaza-like scenes of devastation on Lebanon if a full-blown war erupts.

White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein is Biden's point person on Israel-Hezbollah tensions. The French, who have ties as Lebanon's former colonial power, and other Europeans also are mediating, along with the Qataris and Egyptians.

White House officials blamed Hezbollah for escalating tensions and said it backs Israel's right to defend itself. The Biden administration also told the Israelis that opening a second front is not in their interest. That was a point hammered home to Gallant during his latest talks in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Austin, CIA Director William Burns, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Hochstein and others.

White House officials, however, are not discounting the real possibility that a second front in the Mideast conflict could open.

In conversations with Israeli and Lebanese officials and other regional stakeholders, there is agreement that "a major escalation is not in anybody's interest," a senior Biden administration official said.

The official also acknowledged that an elusive cease-fire deal in Gaza would go a long way in quieting tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border.