Washington Capitals 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman

Give the Washington Capitals credit. Twice, actually.

The fact that they managed to make the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs, minus-37 goal differential be damned, was impressive. Borderline impossible, really. No postseason qualifier in the cap era had ever been outscored quite that much.

After a short series against the New York Rangers , the summer began for president of hockey operations Brian MacLellan and Co. — and from the jump, it was clear that the Caps weren't content to spend another season relying on one-goal wins. This is a better hockey team than the one we saw in 2023-24. Will it be a more successful one?

The projection

Scroll down a little to the roster section of this preview and you'll see that the Capitals are indeed an improved team compared to last season. Washington's goal differential is expected to jump from its minus-37 last year all the way to minus-17 this year thanks to a busy offseason plugging holes.

That doesn't reflect in the team's projected point total, though, where we're forecasting a 5.7-point drop from last year's 91-point season. The reason for that is how unusual it was for the Capitals to earn 91 points in the first place with such a wretched goal difference — one that ranked sixth-last. Based on the relationship between wins and goals, a minus-37 goal differential equates closer to a 79-point team.

Essentially, the Capitals are a better team — but one that will still have a difficult time matching last season's record. Washington enters the season with a 23 percent chance of surpassing 91 points which explains why the Capitals' playoff chances come in at just 18 percent.

They'll be in the mix, but they probably won't be a strong contender to make it.

The big question

Is Washington's summer retool enough to keep the Capitals in the playoff mix?

There might have been NHL execs who started the offseason in a tougher spot than MacLellan. It's tough, though, to imagine one with a more unique situation.

Every general manager's aim, ultimately, is to improve their roster. That's the point of the job. For MacLellan, who promoted Chris Patrick to GM but still has the final say over personnel, that task also involves clear-eyed accounting of a group that a) made the playoffs and b) wasn't very good. One possible route for MacLellan — starting the franchise's first rebuild in nearly two decades — is also, basically, off the table for at least another season and quite possibly two. After Alex Ovechkin scores his 895th goal, the Caps' calculus can change. Until that day, whenever it comes, the chase is the priority. It has to be.

That set of facts removes a whole bunch of team-building options from the table. Throwing money and term at a bunch of unrestricted free agents in their early 30s, or acquiring those guys via trade? That would've hamstrung MacLellan a bit down the line when the teardown begins. Stand pat? The team, as constituted, wasn't good enough for that. Ovechkin, for all his talents, can't carry his own line in 2024, let alone a roster. He needs quality help to score goals, win games and, eventually, allow the franchise to move on to its next phase.

If those were the parameters — getting meaningfully better and younger without mortgaging the future in one fell swoop — MacLellan did about as good a job as anyone could've expected. Without any changes, they'd have started the season with a minus-54 Net Rating. That's worse than the minus-37 goal differential they posted in 2023-24 and, as a preseason projection, would've left them ahead of only the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference. As it stands, they're at a minus-17. Is it great? No. Is it good? No. It's better, though. It's workable.

Part of that, it should be said, is addition by subtraction; had the Caps somehow rolled out Evgeny Kuznetsov in a top-six role again this season ... hoo boy. In 43 games last season, they were outscored 27-14 with him on the ice at five-on-five. That was largely with Ovechkin and Tom Wilson , too.

MacLellan's first, riskiest move came on June 27, when he sent erstwhile starting goalie Darcy Kuemper to the Kings for theoretical top-six center Pierre-Luc Dubois . Dubois' contract (seven years, $8.5 million average annual value) is ugly, but Kuemper's isn't great either (three years, $5.25 million AAV) — and as bad as he was in his lone season with the Kings, posting a career-worst 1.86 points per 60 and generally playing ineffective hockey, he was still one of the best centers to change teams over the summer. A projected Net Rating of plus-4 puts him ahead of Chandler Stephenson and Sean Monahan and within spitting distance of Elias Lindholm . Centers are expensive, and the Caps desperately needed one. Dubois, in a bigger role, should be able to get back to his 60-point form.

At the draft, MacLellan acquired Andrew Mangiapane , a 28-year-old winger who drives offense and scored 35 goals two years ago. His five-on-five play, along with some decent work on the forecheck and in transition on his resume, makes him a solid fit with Ovechkin and Strome.

When free agency opened, MacLellan added a pair of top-four defensemen. Matt Roy , signed for seven years and $34.5 million, has become one of the league's best shutdown defensemen, showing a consistent ability to suppress offense and is projected to put up a plus-four Defensive Rating, 10th at the position. Jakob Chychrun 's reputation seems to have finally settled in the right place; he's a player with limitations, but he also has decent enough two-way impacts and point production to represent an upgrade next to John Carlson .

None of those players makes the Caps a smart bet to return to the playoffs. They're better with them around, though. They're more squarely in the conversation. Given the circumstances, that might be good enough.

The wild card

Can Tom Wilson still be an impact player?

Six years in the NHL can be a lifetime. Example A: Just three members of the Capitals' Cup-winning team are still on the roster and fit enough to play. Wilson, who turned 30 in March, is the youngest, and while he's not as close to the end as, say, Ovechkin, it's fair to wonder whether his best days are behind him, as well.

Last season was Wilson's least productive in terms of points per 60 minutes (1.57) since he was a rookie in 2016-17, and his Net Rating fell for the second straight season after two consecutive as a top-line-caliber contributor, largely due to declines in his offensive impact at five-on-five. His scoring rate at five-on-five was nearly half (0.37 goals per 60) of what it was before an ACL injury ended his 2022-23 season, and his playmaking numbers — assists, shot assists and chance assists — were all abysmal. That makes him a particularly bad fit for the 2024 version of Ovechkin.

That's not to say Wilson isn't still a credible middle-sixer on his own merit; he'd look good on the third line of a more legit contender and still brings certain elements to the mix. He may well score at a 20-goal pace, for example, and his work on puck retrieval and exiting the zone remains excellent for a winger. The biggest reason to think he can reverse the trend is that he's almost certainly going to play on a line centered by either Strome or Dubois. They're not perfect players. They're also not late-period Kuznetsov.

That was always the secret sauce with Wilson: The hits, fights and nonsense drew attention, maybe, but they weren't the only club in his bag. He wasn't just an anachronism. He was a good all-around hockey player with a diverse skill set, more than capable of being a major cog on some great teams. As his elite teammates have aged out, though, his own effectiveness has dipped. It's tough to be a great complementary player without a star to complement.

The strengths

One of the biggest strengths in Washington may be the person leading this roster. Spencer Carbery was an up-and-coming NHL coach to watch in Washington last season. While it took some time for his influence to take hold, he did a lot with a little to help get the Capitals to the postseason.

That was especially clear in the second half of the season. As eye-catching as that minus-37 goal differential was — and trust us, it was for a team that reached the playoffs — the Capitals' first half of the season was primarily to blame for that number sinking so low. From the All-Star break through the end of the regular season, Washington was outscored by only six goals, and a lot of that is thanks to its power play hitting its stride and the goaltending stepping up.

The roster is better than it was when Washington was eliminated in Round 1 last spring, but it still isn't the most inspiring group.

Strome isn't a true first-line center, but he is the best the Capitals have. He has become a real difference-maker for the Capitals with his ability to generate scoring chances, convert on his chances and set his teammates up with dangerous passes. And he deserves a lot of credit for doing that without a ton of help around him. Strome is the driver of the Capitals' top line, and that earned him a spot in Player Tiers for the first time in 5C.

Strome initially was on the outside looking in on this year's Tiers, but insiders gave him the push to make the cut into the top 150 in the league. A lot of that has to do with his ability to elevate Ovechkin at this point in his career.

And this year, they may have a new linemate in Mangiapane, depending on how the lines shake out.

When Mangiapane is at his best, he uses his speed to gain the offensive zone with control. He is a solid forechecker who can create scoring chances and finish his chances. And he isn't a pushover defensively, either.

The Flames didn't experience that version of Mangiapane last season at five-on-five, but he seems like a prime bounce-back candidate. The Capitals shouldn't expect him to ride a shooting percentage spike like he did in 2021-22, but he has shown he has the chops to be an effective two-way winger in a top-six role. If he can get back to that, it will give this team a real boost.

If Dubois can rebound at all, he could end up being a plus down the middle of the second line. Sonny Milano provides a spark on the third line, and the fourth line looks to be pretty steady. Nic Dowd is super reliable down the middle, thanks to his defensive strengths. Taylor Raddysh is another fine option if he can get his five-on-five game closer to his 2022-23 levels.

Carlson remains the team's cornerstone on the back end and is still an effective enough No. 1 defenseman. He can still contribute offensively, especially on the power play. Behind him on the depth chart, there is offseason signing Roy, who can take on heavy usage and shutdown opponents. Martin Fehérváry and Trevor van Riemsdyk round out the supporting cast as a solid third pair.

The goaltending isn't incredible on paper but could become a strength — if what we saw last year from Charlie Lindgren was the real deal. Caution is always warranted for any goaltender that suddenly bursts onto the scene and that applies here where Lindgren's limited resume makes him a difficult bet to forecast a repeat. Lindgren's plus-one Net Rating doesn't exactly scream starting goalie or even 1A. That's because it is based on the last five years of play, not just last season's success.

Then, Lindgren emerged as the Capitals' MVP down the stretch with difference-making play that helped the team reach the playoffs. His work across the full season in 50 games earned him the ninth-best goals saved above expected in the league. Do it again and the Capitals' playoff chances go way up.

Washington managed to shed Kuemper's cap hit and bring in a much more cost-effective 1B to support Lindgren in Logan Thompson . That gives the team a bit more of a safety net in case Lindgren's electric 2023-24 campaign was just a mirage. Thompson grades out as one of the league's better backups and should push Lindgren for starts.

The weaknesses

If Lindgren and Thompson aren't up to the task in net, that could be a major problem in Washington because of the team's weaknesses at both ends of the ice.

Three of Washington's four top-four defenders find themselves with a negative Defensive Rating.

That's the real weakness in Carlson's game. The veteran can still put up points, especially on the power play, and made an impact at five-on-five relative to his teammates last year. But his numbers have started trending down in recent seasons. Is it a result of age-related decline or the team around him? The answer is a combination of both, and this year's performance could be telling.

Whether he slots with Chychrun or Sandin, he will be paired with someone with their own defensive gaps.

In Arizona, Chychrun's offensive acumen seemed to balance out the rest. Ottawa was a much different story. He struggled to defend the blue line and wasn't as effective at breaking the puck out to turn defense into offense. Chychrun retrieved fewer pucks and wasn't up to his usual standards in transition, either.

Chychrun's Washington tenure should help give a better indication of the kind of player he actually is — whether he can thrive in meaningful minutes, or whether his heights with the Coyotes were just a result of perfectly sheltered usage.

If Chychrun can make up for any dips in Carlson's game offensively and at least outpace whatever the team gives up in his minutes, he could help push the Capitals forward. But that's a big if after his last season in Ottawa. The Senators learned there was a reason the Coyotes didn't trust Chychrun in big boy minutes. Now the Capitals will be tasked with rehabilitating him.

Sandin also has something to prove after taking a step back last year, too. He impressed offensively in his first stint with the Capitals in Carlson's absence in 2022-23, which made up for some of the suspect defense behind that. But last year, the scoring wasn't there to mask any other deficiencies. Not only did the Capitals allow more quality offense in his minutes, but they didn't generate as much, either. The question with Sandin in Toronto always centered around whether he could handle top-four minutes, and the verdict so far in Washington is a resounding "no." Maybe having Roy by his side changes that.

Washington needs its top three offensive defensemen to pick up the pace this season to make up for what this forward group lacks. The second line underwhelms with Dubois, Wilson and Connor McMichael . And the third line doesn't look to have enough firepower to make up for where it lacks, either. Between Milano, Aliaksei Protas and Hendrix Lapierre , the projected third line has a combined Offensive Rating of minus-14. That isn't set in stone, and the numbers could be skewed by young players with less NHL-level experience. Still, it's dicey for a team to pin the hopes of having a capable supporting cast on every younger player taking leaps forward in their progression and each veteran to rebound.

Even the players who are expected to be productive, like Strome and even Mangiapane, fall short of what a team should want at the top of its lineup. A team can make up for that with a ton of depth and secondary scoring. Washington just isn't expected to have that.

And then there's Ovechkin.

We all know that without the puck he's a mess, but last year some serious offensive cracks started to show on top of that. Ovechkin got off to an absolutely brutal start last season that had some people questioning how much he had left in the tank. Between the beginning of last season and the end of 2023, Ovechkin mustered only seven goals in 34 games.

Maybe some of that was influenced by the team around him, as he didn't have a pass-first player feeding him constantly at even strength. And on the power play, his one-timer was too predictable with Carlson feeding him from the point instead of a forward from the right circle. But a lot of it fell on Ovechkin, too. It wasn't just his scoring that took a hit last year. His shot volume did, too. Even though he eventually started rolling with 23 goals in the last 36 games of the season, there is still an air of uncertainty around him. It doesn't seem like he has the stamina to perform across an 82-game season anymore.

While Ovechkin may be one of the greatest goal-scorers of all time, Father Time spares no one. He shouldn't be expected to be a first-line caliber winger at this point, but the problem now is that he may not even be a one-trick pony who can keep outscoring expectations.

That's why he's continued to slide down the Player Tiers, this year to 5C — with many arguing whether he belonged at all. Now, with stronger support around him, it's time for Ovechkin to prove he's still got game.

The best case

Ovechkin has a fairytale year scoring his 42nd goal in the final game of the season — a one-timer from his office that sends the Capitals back to the playoffs.

The worst case

Dubois is a dud, the blue-line improvements flop, Lindgren regresses and the core group takes another step back. Washington's competitive window is finally sealed and, to make matters worse, the Capitals finish outside the league's bottom five.

The bottom line

The Capitals are still in a tricky position, balancing the remaining parts of their aging core while trying to start a new era. It should land them in the playoff mix after a busy offseason. But this team has a ceiling that likely traps them somewhere in the middle.

How the model works

How the model adjusts for context

Understanding projection uncertainty

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.

(Photo of Tom Wilson: Bruce Bennett / )