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Week 10 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
K.Smith30 min ago
- Michael Owens/ Week 9 was a fun one, capped by the Kansas City Chiefs' overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs remain undefeated, while the Buccaneers are one of the few teams residing in the middle of the pack. 14 teams have five or more wins while nine teams have just two. While any team can win on any given day, parity hasn't exactly been a theme of the 2024 season. That may lead to quite a few uninteresting matchups in the coming weeks, though fans so inclined can always spice things up with some box-score bets. Here, you'll find a few of our favorite box-score over/unders for Week 10 based on the early lines.
- Dylan Buell/ While a few games in Week 10 may lack excitement, Thursday's opener between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens shouldn't be one of them. The Bengals have looked like a playoff-caliber team at times this season, while Baltimore has often looked like one of the NFL's best. Regardless of record, battles between these two AFC North rivals are always interesting. We love the idea of opening the week with this passing prop for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He's -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the over, and he should. Burrow only passed for 251 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, but the Bengals found plenty of room on the ground. Against Baltimore's first-ranked run defense, yards on the ground will be tough to come by. The Ravens' pass defense has not been good this season and allowed Burrow to rack up 392 passing yards in the first meeting. Injuries to wideout Tee Higgins and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. complicate the picture for Cincinnati, but the Bengals will have to rely on Burrow if they're going to win. Given the matchup—and Cincinnati's need to keep pace with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens—this is a low over/under.
- Perry Knotts/ Another prop we like for Thursday involves Henry and his rushing over/under (-115). Cincinnati's run defense has shown improvement, and the Bengals now rank sixth in yards per carry allowed. However, opposing teams have still been able to grind out games on the ground when not playing from behind. Cincinnati has only allowed 100 rushing yards once in the last three weeks, but they surrendered 108 rushing yards to Saquon Barkley in Week 8. Henry, meanwhile, has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games. The exception was a 72-yard outing against the Cleveland Browns, a game in which he inexplicably only logged 11 carries. The last time he faced the Bengals, Henry tallied exactly 92 rushing yards on 15 carries. He may not see an egregious workload on a short week after logging 23 carries against the Denver Broncos. However, the loss to Cleveland likely taught Baltimore a lesson about the risks of underutilizing their top running threat. One long fourth-quarter run should be enough to cash the over.
- Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via The Bengals will likely have to rely on their passing game against Baltimore, and there's still some uncertainty surrounding the status of wide receiver Tee Higgins. Cincinnati's No. 2 receiver missed the last two games with a quad injury and may or not be available on a short week. "We'll see," head coach Zac Taylor said, per Russ Heltman of SI.com. "We are limited with our field wort. Cincinnati won't have rookie tight end Erick All Jr., who is out for the year with a torn ACL. All of this should yield a big role for tight end Mike Gesicki, who is -175 to catch at least four passes. He's been a focal point of the offense over the past two weeks with Higgins out and has been targeted 14 times over that span. Gesicki caught seven passes for 73 yards in Week 8 and had five receptions for 100 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9. The potential payout isn't ideal for this prop, but Gesicki has a great chance to hit the over.
- Cooper Neill/ Most player props won't be available until later in the week, but point-total over/unders are out there. One we find favorable is the over (-110) in the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals game. The Cardinals are beginning to find an identity on both sides of the ball and especially on offense. Kyler Murray, James Conner and Emari Demercado are establishing a run-first attack that can get things going through the air when it needs to. Arizona tallied 29 points at home against a very good Chicago Bears defense on Sunday. The Jets, meanwhile, may have found their spark in Week 9. They produced 293 yards and 21 points against the Houston Texans last Thursday. There's room for improvement, but if Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson really have clicked, there could be quite a bit of offensive back-and-forth in this game. What about the defenses? Well, Arizona looked great in Week 9 but it was against a Bears team that has averaged just over 13 points on the road this season. The Jets looked good against the Texans, though Houston was without its top two receivers and dealing with a liability of an offensive line. New York surrendered at least 23 points in each of its previous four games, while Arizona allowed an average of 28 points over its previous five. Expect the Jets and Cardinals to trend closer to these numbers in a fun, high-scoring game.
Read the full article:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10142318-week-10-nfl-picks-early-odds-to-exploit-for-best-overunder-box-score-bets
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