Week 13’s top 10 CFB games: Ohio State-Michigan main event with league title spots at stake
Only a couple of high-profile rivalries are likely to impact the conference championship and College Football Playoff races, or even be all that close on the scoreboard. But perhaps a long holiday weekend of grudge matches will deliver the chaos that last week’s lineup failed to.
Ohio State at Michigan is the obvious headliner and will dominate Thanksgiving discourse — illegal sign-stealing is the new politics — but plenty of conference championship slots are also still up for grabs. That’s where our attention is directed as we power rank the top 10 games of Week 13, starting with a few honorable mentions and counting down.
Honorable mentions: Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Thursday), Kentucky at Louisville, Texas A&M at LSU, Alabama at Auburn, Washington State at Washington, Iowa State at Kansas State.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted. All rankings are via the College Football Playoff.)
This game won’t have any impact on the Conference USA championship, but both teams deserve recognition. Jacksonville State is in a similar position to James Madison, making the jump from the FCS to FBS and therefore ineligible to play for a conference title despite a 6-1 record in league play. (Though it should nab a bowl bid due to the lack of other qualifying teams .) That’s why New Mexico State, also 6-1 in CUSA, has already clinched a spot in the championship against undefeated Liberty . The Aggies also pulled off a 31-10 road upset over Auburn last weekend, collecting a $1.8 million paycheck for the guaranteed game in the process.
Line: Jacksonville State -2.5
Last one at home for the seniors. #AggieUp x #HHLP pic.twitter.com/P4H7JwKNxM— New Mexico State Football November 21, 2023
James Madison can’t participate in the Sun Belt title game, but real stakes remain. A Coastal Carolina win puts the Chanticleers in the title game against Troy , but they might have to attempt it without quarterback Grayson McCall , who hasn’t played since suffering a concussion Oct. 21. JMU lost for the first time last weekend, to Appalachian State, and is also likely to get a bowl bid. I understand why the FCS-to-FBS transition rules — including two years of postseason ineligibility — are in place to disincentivize programs making hasty decisions, but it seems if a team plays well enough to reach a conference title game in that two-year window, that should be enough to override the rule.
Line: James Madison -9.5
A pair of marquee Mountain West showdowns will determine the conference title game, as dissected in this Group of 5 mailbag . If UNLV beats San Jose State (hold tight), the winner of this game will play at UNLV in the championship. If UNLV loses, things get more complicated, but the loser of this one is out of the picture regardless. Strange vibes in this matchup despite the implications: Air Force is riding a three-game skid after starting the season 8-0, and Boise State fired coach Andy Avalos on Nov. 12 despite the program still having a shot at the Mountain West crown.
Line: Boise State -6.5
Fresh off an upset at Air Force, first-place UNLV will host the Mountain West championship with a win Saturday. The Rebels are a field goal favorite and have the league’s top-scoring offense, but SJSU is on a five-game win streak and has the Mountain West’s best offense in terms of yards per play. If the Spartans can pull off the upset, it will create a three-way tie at 6-2 between SJSU, UNLV and the winner of Air Force/Boise State, at which point the computer rankings will determine the league’s top two teams. So if you love messy, root for San Jose State.
Line: UNLV -3
The Seminoles are locked into the ACC championship against Louisville , and Florida is a non-factor (again) in the SEC East. The interest in this one is how Florida State — which was dropped to No. 5 in the latest CFP rankings Tuesday, one spot below Washington — looks without star quarterback Jordan Travis , who was lost for the season after suffering a gruesome leg injury last Saturday . A win over the Gators won’t do much for FSU’s Playoff resume, but a loss will sink any hopes. This will be a backup quarterback battle for both sides, with Tate Rodemaker starting in place of Travis and Max Brown starting for an injured Graham Mertz as the Gators attempt to clinch bowl eligibility.
Line: Florida State -6.5
How ’bout them Cowboys? Oklahoma State is in the Big 12 title game with a win over BYU. It underscores a remarkable turnaround for Mike Gundy and the Pokes, which I wrote about this week , flipping a season that looked headed for disaster into one on the cusp of a conference title opportunity. Though to be fair, it’s also indicative of a weakened Big 12 overall, with OSU on track to edge out the likes of Oklahoma and Kansas State just a couple of weeks after the Cowboys lost 45-3 to league newcomer UCF. TCU , which reached the national championship game last season, is nowhere to be found. The Sooners and Wildcats are still alive with both Big 12 title spots technically up for grabs, but neither controls their destiny the way Oklahoma State does.
Line: Oklahoma State -17.5
Three teams are at 7-0 in the American Athletic Conference entering the final weekend. SMU can clinch a spot in the championship with a win Saturday over Navy , which would pit it against the winner of this one. Tulane , last year’s New Year’s Six representative from the G5, has a lone loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 9, and UTSA bounced back from a 1-3 start to win seven straight in its first season in the AAC. If SMU loses Saturday? Again, the G5 mailbag has you covered . Regardless, the G5’s NY6 team will likely be the AAC winner once again.
Line: Tulane -3.5
Like Oklahoma State, Texas clinches a Big 12 championship spot with a win. The Longhorns could still get in with a loss, too, though there are so many scenarios in play should they fall to Texas Tech that the Big 12 hasn’t even bothered to list them yet . But Texas has higher aims than winning the conference. If it can do so with just one loss — and bolstered by that nonconference win over Alabama — it gives it a good chance to make the four-team Playoff. Which is why Tech has a prime opportunity to redeem a disappointing season if it can pull off the road upset in the Longhorns’ final Big 12 regular-season game.
Line: Texas -12.5
The Ducks are in the Pac-12 championship with a win and could make it with a loss Friday, though the latter would dash any chance of a Playoff push. The Beavers are out of the Pac-12 race altogether, which is a shame considering how strong a season they’re having, but there’s still plenty of motivation to play spoiler in this final rivalry game as conference opponents. That said, I suspect most college football fans outside of Corvallis (and Seattle) are hoping for an Oregon-Washington rematch in the Pac-12 title game, with a possible Playoff spot and Heisman Trophy on the line.
Line: Oregon -13.5
No hype necessary. Only the hope that the game itself lives up to it. The winner gets Iowa in the Big Ten championship, which many will equate to a free pass to the Playoff. The loser, unlike last season, is more than likely out of the CFP picture. But there’s another rivalry plotline to consider. A Michigan victory would give the Wolverines three straight over the Buckeyes, this latest (presumably) without the benefit of stolen signs, providing Michigan a degree of hubris that’s sure to send Ohio State and its fans into a tailspin. But as I wrote a few weeks ago , an Ohio State win allows the Buckeyes faithful to frame the Wolverines as frauds who can win only by cheating while reclaiming their place atop the rivalry. To the victor goes the narrative.
Line: Michigan -3.5
(Photo of Ohio State coach Ryan Day: Jason Mowry / )
