'We're not surprised': Early tally finds Thao trailing in bid to defeat Oakland mayor recall

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao was behind in the election to recall her from office based on early returns from the Alameda County Registrar of Voters on Tuesday night.

With a vote of 64.22% in favor of the recall versus 35.78% opposed — with 35,367 votes counted out of the city's 252,382 register voters — Thao appeared to have a steep climb to victory as of about 8:20 p.m. Tuesday.

"We're not surprised," said recall spokesman Seneca Scott. "We knew all along that Sheng Thao would likely be recalled by an overwhelming margin."

A Thao campaign spokesperson didn't respond to requests for comment.

The campaign to remove her from office was largely predicated on perceptions of Oakland's crime rates and the city's ongoing budget problems.

Recall proponents successfully tapped into Oakland voters' fears about crime, despite recent data showing a 33 percent drop in homicides in Oakland, zero homicides in October and an overall crime rate drop by 37 percent from a year ago, according to the Oakland Police Department.

In her effort to keep her job, Thao's committee, Oaklanders Defending Democracy, raised $120,381, while her opponents' committee, Oakland United to Recall Sheng Thao, raised $602,483.

Much of Thao's monetary support came from labor unions, while her opponents were heavily funded by Foundational Oakland Unites, which in turn received all its money, $760,319, from wealthy hedge fund executive and Piedmont resident Philip Dreyfuss.

"We're not surprised. We knew all along that Sheng Thao would likely be recalled by an overwhelming margin."

Seneca Scott, recall campaign spokesperson

Based on early results, Thao wasn't able to overcome the spending gap despite painting the recall effort as an undemocratic power grab controlled by one rich out-of-towner meddling in Oakland's civic life.

She also touted her efforts to reduce crime, warned of the potentially chaotic transition to a new mayor if the recall was successful and compiled a list of supporters that included the city's firefighters' union, the influential SEIU 1021 and the Alameda County Democratic Party.

Her opponents, including the Oakland branch of the NAACP and former Oakland mayor Libby Schaaf, among others, said her perceived missteps led to her political demise.

Recall supporters said they were upset with her firing of former police chief LeRonne Armstrong, a missed deadline to receive millions in retail theft prevention grant money from the state and the use of one-time money from the sale of the city's ownership of half of the Oakland Coliseum to balance the city's budget.

They said people no longer feel safe in Oakland, that businesses have left over worries about crime and that Thao has failed to put a halt to the city's perceived lawlessness.

Thao was also likely hurt in the polls by an FBI raid of her home that is potentially related to the well-connected Duong family, owners of the city's recycling contractor, California Waste Solutions.

Neither she nor the Duongs have been charged with any crimes and it's unclear exactly what the FBI was looking for. Thao has said she's been told that she's not the center of the investigation.

If the results stand, the president of the Oakland City Council will step in as interim mayor until a special election could be held, likely in April.

The winner of that contest would serve out the remainder of Thao's term — two more years — and then would have to stand for re-election.

A possible wrinkle in that plan, however, is that the current president, Nikki Fortunato Bas, is running for a seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors.

If she wins, the council would have to appoint another president, who would then temporarily take over for Thao.