What Alabama must do to beat LSU

Stop if you've heard this before but the Alabama-LSU early November showdown has massive postseason implications.

The winner survives and remains in the playoff conversation. To the loser: Pack your bags for Orlando.

This time, both enter the 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday game with matching 6-2 records. The No. 15 Tigers dropped its opener to USC - now 4-5 won just one of its last five games - and its last outing, 38-23 at Texas A&M.

No. 11 Alabama had its slump when losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee before rebounding to beat Missouri, 34-0 before the open week.

So, in a season of parity, these two rivals have been caught up in the wash at times.

But the new 12-team playoff doesn't disqualify two-loss teams. Alabama has among the nation's highest quality wins over then-No. 2 Georgia on Sept. 28. Two weeks later, LSU got its marquee moment by taking down then-No. 9 Ole Miss in Tiger Stadium.

Now, one of these two will get a second data point to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.

This is setting up to be another classic between these two under the lights on ABC on Saturday night.

The best-case scenario for Alabama: One-dimensional Tigers, Milroe turned loose There are certain truths we've come to associate with LSU football. First, the Tigers can run the ball, and they play stout defense.

Well, neither are necessarily the case this fall.

LSU is a stunning 15th of 16 SEC teams (111th nationally) averaging 99.5 rushing yards in league games.

A year ago, this team was No. 1, averaging 222.0 yards running against SEC teams. That was not the case this season as it managed just 24 rushing yards on 23 tries in the 38-23 loss to Texas A&M. That Tiger offense was severely one-dimensional against the Aggies as Garrett Nussmeier threw it 50 times, completing half of them for 405 yards but with three interceptions to two touchdowns.

Most Popular Stories by Michael Casagrande

Why Alabama's Ryan Williams has ballet world in awe

Casagrande: Explaining some Auburn offensive mess like a nerd

Former 5-star Alabama RB enters transfer portal

Forcing a team to be predictable would be a good recipe for an Alabama team eager to avenge a 2022 loss to LSU the last time they traveled to Baton Rouge.

Texas A&M also exposed an LSU defensive weakness when combating a mobile quarterback. Pulling traditional passer Conner Weigman for the speedy Marcel Reed helped turn a 10-point second-half deficit into a 15-point lead.

Granted, that mid-game swap wasn't necessarily something LSU spent time in preparation and Jalen Milroe's skillset is no secret.

Especially to LSU.

That's because Milroe ran all over the Tigers in last season's 42-28 win in Tuscaloosa. While throwing for 219 yards on 15 of 23 passing, the 155 rushing yards remain his career high on 20 carries. That included four touchdowns as LSU struggled to keep Milroe contained in the pocket.

Getting that going again would be nice for an Alabama offense that's also struggled with its multi-dimensionality. That was better against Missouri when a league season-high 271 rushing yards (on 37 attempts) paired with 215 passing yards (on 26 throws).

Worst-case scenario: LSU bombs away This LSU passing game is a high-risk, high-reward kind of attack. The Tigers have 20 passing touchdowns but nine interceptions. They have 37 completions of 20-plus years, the 13th most in the nation.

This is an offense with big play threats in Kyren Lacy (41 catches, 618 yards) and former Alabama WR Aaron Anderson (36 catches, 614 yards). Tight end Mason Taylor, who caught the game-winning two-point conversion against Alabama two years ago, has 39 catches for 369 yards.

The point is LSU has multiple weapons that can make big plays in the passing game. Alabama brings a secondary that's banged up and has been susceptible to big plays. It would also be fair to say that group is high risk, high reward as it recorded 11 interceptions and allowed 11 passing touchdowns.

If LSU can get the passing game in rhythm, Death Valley can become a dangerous place for visiting teams. Alabama lost its last two road games, one at Vanderbilt but the other in a similarly insane Neyland Stadium.

Allowing a repeat of that would be a pretty bad scenario.

Prediction: Alabama 28, LSU 21 Who knows?

Flip a coin.