What Putin really wants from the US election

When Donald Trump won the White House in 2016, Champagne corks popped in Moscow.

Eight years, two elections and an all-out assault on Ukraine later, the bubbles of hope have gone flat and been replaced with bittersweet gulps of schadenfreude.

While the conventional wisdom may be that the Kremlin is once again wishing for Trump, the reality is that neither of the two possible future presidents is likely to deliver everything Moscow wants.

Let's start with Trump: Since his first presidential campaign, the Republican candidate has enjoyed a certain level of admiration from Moscow. More precisely, Russian President Vladimir Putin admires Trump's admiration of, well, Putin.

"Putin is a short, vain man," says Nina Khrushcheva, a professor at The New School in New York and the great-granddaughter of former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev.

"The Kremlin likes the fact that the tall, rich Trump is in absolute awe of Putin," she added. "That gives Putin the upper hand."

And while Trump's strongman persona and rich-man, fake-tan aesthetics may be off-putting to puritans in Western Europe, the Russian elite is no stranger to ostentatious displays of wealth nor, to put it mildly, to аutocratic tendencies in their politicians.

Trump's conspiratorial thinking also resonates with a deep-seated belief among many Russians, fueled by their politicians and propaganda, that ordinary Americans are being held hostage by a deep state.

The biggest attraction for the Kremlin when it comes to Trump, of course, is his stance on Ukraine. The Republican nominee has pledged to end the war in one day, presumably by forcing Kyiv to make territorial concessions. His running mate JD Vance is a fierce critic of giving Ukraine more aid.

"Putin desperately needs a victory," said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter. "A protracted conflict that he's not able to win does not help his legitimacy."

There is, however, a downside to Trump. As Moscow learned the hard way during his first term, Trump doesn't always keep his promises. Specifically, he didn't deliver on repairing relations with Russia and lifting Western sanctions over its seizure of Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

Eight years later, as Putin's three-day invasion plan stretches toward the end of its third year, Moscow is doubtful that Washington's hostility will be dispelled by even the most Kremlin-friendly president.

"The election won't change anything for Russia, because the candidates fully reflect the bipartisan consensus that our country must be defeated," Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's security council, wrote in a post on Telegram.

He called Trump's words on ending the war and his good relationship with Russia "banalities."

"He can't stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he really tries, he could be the new JFK," Medvedev added.

"Whoever wins the election, we see no prospect of America changing its Russophobic course," Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said earlier this week.

Tellingly, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov put Trump in his place this month after the former U.S. president claimed he'd been close to reaching a nuclear disarmament deal with Moscow and Beijing during his first term in office.

"No, this does not correspond to reality," Ryabkov said .

Then there's Harris, the candidate who received Putin's sarcastic endorsement in September.

President Joe Biden was "our favorite, if you can call it that," Putin said during a panel at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, an event designed to encourage investment in Russia's eastern regions.

Once Biden dropped out of the race, Putin said Russia would do what the Democratic president had asked his followers to do and "support" Harris.

"She has such an expressive and infectious laugh, it shows that she's doing well," he said, eliciting laughs from his audience.

Gallyamov, the former Kremlin speechwriter, was dismissive of Putin's comments. "It's a traditional KGB cover operation meant to benefit Trump," he said.

But Krushcheva said they could nonetheless contain a kernel of truth.

Trump's promise of a swift end to the war in Ukraine, even one that secured territory for Moscow, might not be Putin's preferred outcome. "He has made the war the centerpiece of his legacy, and so he will wage it for as long as he needs to, wants to and can," Krushcheva said.

Harris could help with that by extending a status quo that Moscow believes is playing out in its favor as Western resolve weakens against Russia's relentless offensive.

As a champion of the U.S. foreign policy establishment, Harris also offers Putin a perfect foil as well as a justification for his endless war against what he calls "American hegemony."

Whatever its preferences between the two candidates, the Kremlin certainly seems to believe it has skin in the game. U.S. intelligence and tech experts have accused Russia of continuing to spread deep-fake videos and other disinformation designed to influence the campaign.

While much of the content targets the Democratic camp — one bizarre story claimed Harris had shot an endangered rhino in Zambia — it also appears designed to undermine faith in the vote in general. Russian state media has painted the run-up to the election as something between a circus and a war zone.

If the Kremlin were to cast a ballot, there is little doubt it would vote for chaos, polarization and disillusionment with American democracy.

As of today, it seems to stand a good chance of winning.