What to Expect as Biden Hosts the Last Quad Summit of His Administration

Ryan Morgan President Joe Biden is set to host leaders from Australia, India, and Japan on Sept. 21, in one of his last chances to shape policy in the Indo-Pacific region before he leaves office—the Quad Leaders Summit.Biden will host Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at his private residence in Wilmington, Delaware, on Saturday for the fourth in-person Quad Leaders Summit.The Quad's interests overlap with the U.S. objective to maintain maritime access throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The four-way relationship could also form the backbone of an alliance to counter the expansionist goals of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).The initial plans were for India to host this latest Quad summit, but scheduling conflicts complicated the matter, and Biden took up the opportunity. This scheduling change, combined with Biden's decision to suspend his reelection campaign, positions the Sept. 21 summit as a capstone event in his foreign policy record.The Quad held its first meetings at the senior official level in 2007 but fell into disuse by 2008 after then-Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd withdrew from the organization. he four-way relationship didn't resume senior official-level meetings until November 2017. Quad meetings continued at the senior official level through President Donald Trump's term in office, but summit-level meetings between the leaders of the four nations didn't begin until March of 2021.The Quad's stumbling start is due in part to differing views about the overall purpose of the relationship. The debate has centered on whether the Quad should form a military alliance akin to NATO to counter China, or whether they will pursue shared values and policy objectives without forming a counter-CCP alliance.Previewing the upcoming summit, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Sept. 17 that he believes a discussion of China "will certainly be high on the agenda," adding "it would be irresponsible" for the Quad leaders not to address regional challenges posed by aggressive Chinese military action and its trade practices. said: "You'd have to talk to the leaders about their particular view" on the CCP, and predicted there would be a "common understanding" at the summit about the challenges Beijing poses in the region.

Such a counter-CCP alliance could be conflicting for India, which is in league with China by way of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Russia-led BRICS economic bloc.

Adam Savit, the Director of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Insitute (AFPI), told The Epoch Times the Quad is unlikely to spawn a military alliance but helps counterbalance India's other relationships.

While AFPI is largely aligned with Trump's "America First" politics, Savit said, the fact that the Quad hasn't become a military alliance is not a knock on Biden's record.

"It's hard to coordinate these four powers," Savit said.

Short of a full alliance, the various Quad members have expanded their military cooperation through separate bilateral alliances and multilateral partnerships over the years. For example, Biden formally announced a security partnership with the United Kingdom and Australia in September 2021, known as AUKUS. Coinciding with the announcement, Biden and then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans to arm Australia with conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines.

Savit credited Biden with continuing to build up other Indo-Pacific security partnerships as well, like the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral relationship.

In their public statements since 2021, the Quad leaders haven't explicitly said they're forming an alliance to counter China. On the other hand, they've repeatedly a goal to advance international law and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific and in the East China and South China Seas in particular; two areas where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has sought to expand its presence in recent years. In a joint following their second in-person leaders summit in May 2022, the Quad leaders denounced "coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo and increase tensions in the area," including through "the dangerous use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia." While the statement didn't reference China by name, nations throughout the Indo-Pacific have raised concerns in recent years about the actions of the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese Maritime Militia (CCM).Previewing the summit during a Sept. 20 press call, a senior U.S. administration official said the Quad nations will soon participate in their first joint Coast Guard exercise.

The official said the Quad nations aim to improve their ability to "uphold and enforce international law" in Indo-Pacific waters.

The official said the summit will also feature discussions on ways to increase the Quad's existing Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness initiative, which aims to improve monitoring and surveillance capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.

Beyond enforcing international order on the high seas, the Quad has looked to other ways to limit China's regional influence, such as rerouting trade and supply chains.

Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Project on Critical Mineral Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said critical mineral exploration and extraction could be an area of increasing collaboration among the Quad members, and could be a point of focus at the Saturday summit.

Richard Rossow, senior adviser and CSIS chair in U.S.-India policy studies, predicted the Quad leaders will also look to diversify their supply chains more broadly.

"They all want to reduce their dependence on China and just generally reduce dependence on any one country on the heels of COVID and some of the supply chain constraints that we saw during that period," Rossow said.

During Biden's tenure, the Quad has looked beyond regional security issues, to issues like COVID-19 and vaccine distribution in the region, economic development projects, and natural disaster responses, among other topics.In a Sept. 12 statement, the White House Biden expects the upcoming summit will cover "health security, natural disaster response, maritime security, high-quality infrastructure, critical and emerging technology, climate and clean energy, and cybersecurity."At a Sept. 19 press briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden will also use the Quad summit as a venue to make an "important announcement" concerning his Cancer Moonshot initiative, aimed at improving cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

The Indo-Pacific After Biden

The November U.S. elections will decide, among other things, who will represent the United States at the Quad going forward.

Thus far, there are no signs either Vice President Kamala Harris or Trump will diverge significantly from Biden's path in the Indo-Pacific region.

Savit said the Quad relationship is "on autopilot," in the sense that "it is fulfilling its role, even though it is vague."

Should Trump win the 2024 election, Savit predicted the Quad relationship would continue to grow on its current trajectory.

Savit predicted Trump could build on his first term in office, and expand on U.S.-Japan relations going forward.

"When Trump was in office, there was a very strong relationship with Japan. Part of that was [then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe] as a person, but that sparked cooperation, including Japan rebuilding its military," Savit said.

Savit said the proximity of the Japanese-controlled Senkaku and Ryukyu Islands to Taiwan makes Japan a key ally in contesting a potential Chinese attempt to seize control of Taiwan.