What to know about Falcons - Saints redux in Week 10

Depending on the year and the circumstances, an Atlanta Falcons game against the New Orleans Saints is either a moment of anticipation and hatred or dread and hatred. This season, we're in the anticipation camp, because Atlanta is surging while New Orleans crumbles to dust.

It may seem like the distant past now, but after the first week of the season the Saints looked like a juggernaut and the Falcons had lost on an anemic day for the offense, sparking fears that Kirk Cousins wouldn't be healthy enough to dominate. Fast forward two months and Atlanta's 6-3 with a comfortable NFC South lead and an offense that's rounding into form as one of the NFC's best, while the Saints are 2-7, firing their head coach, and trading away star cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Saints are hoping to play spoiler the rest of the way, but they're in pretty terrible shape to be doing so.

The team they'll most want to take down, of course, is this Atlanta squad. Two of the oldest and most fierce rivals in the NFL despite their collective sad sack history, the Falcons and Saints do not like one another in a way very few teams manage. The Falcons shouldn't have any problem finding motivation to slay New Orleans and bring their record against the division to 5-0, the kind of mark alongside a 7-3 record that will put them in excellent shape for the rest of the season. The fact that this is indeed a rivalry game means it's likely to have some sweaty moments, even with the gap in results and talent between these two teams.

Here's what you need to know for Sunday.

Team rankings Falcons - Saints Comparison Once again, the Falcons are a better team on paper. The Saints are simultaneously being bolstered on offense a bit by their red-hot start and obviously dragged down by injury and the lack of Carr; they're offensively capable but not great. Defensively, they're old and falling apart, and that's reflected in the fact that they've allowed at least 23 points in six straight weeks, including to the dismal Panthers. Their saving grace has been an ability to keep turnovers to a minimum and get them through aggressive play, which is really their path to victory not just Sunday but the rest of the year.

The Falcons are a good offense and a middling defense that has shown a few sparks of late, including improved pressure against the Cowboys and some big turnovers in recent weeks. They're very clearly better than the Saints, if not by leaps and bounds in all regards, then by enough to be miles ahead of them in the NFC South standings.

How the Saints have changed The last time these two teams met, the Falcons squeaked out a last second victory over the Saints when the latter was relatively healthy and still had their strong two game start to the season within recent memory. The team they're facing Sunday is almost unrecognizable.

Chris Olave is hurt and may not play after a Derek Carr hospital ball got him concussed last Sunday against the Panthers. Paulson Adebo remains on injured reserve, robbing the Saints of one of their best defenders, and the team is down Rashid Shaheed at receiver, Ryan Ramczyk at tackle, Erik McCoy at center, and Will Harris at safety. Derek Carr is back and this team is perhaps healthier than they once were, but they just lost to the Panthers. You can tell their depth is decimated and the strengths they boasted in the first few games have evaporated.

Then the Saints finally admitted they have to re-tool this roster, trading Marshon Lattimore to the Washington Commanders . With Paulson Adebo also down, the Saints basically embraced having an outsized weakness at cornerback, a sure sign that they've all but given up on the 2024 season. Lattimore was infamous for his handsy coverage tactics among Falcons fans, and while we'll see him one more time when the Falcons play the Commanders, it at least won't be in New Orleans.

The biggest change, though, is that Dennis Allen is no longer the head coach. The Panthers loss was so intolerable as the seventh defeat in seven games that the Saints made the change, promoting special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi to interim head coach. A team with a scary cap situation, very few long-term building blocks, and not a lot to attract hot coaching candidates is just hoping for the kind of bounce that allows them to keep operating in their double-down, mediocre world, but the Falcons can help crush those hopes Sunday.

What lies ahead You know what this game is likely to look like. This is the biggest game left on the calendar for these woeful Saints, and they have both a recently fired head coach and a couple of useful pieces back in action, including Falconsbane Taysom Hill. Even with Marshon Lattimore headed to the Commanders, I don't expect this to be as easy as it should be on paper. That's the nature of divisional games, especially ones as heated as Falcons-Saints can be.

That said, it's difficult to look at this Saints team and see their path to victory, barring the Falcons being disastrously sloppy. Derek Carr's return saw him throw for just 236 yards against the woeful Panthers with a sub-60% completion rate, a product of playing without Chris Olave for much of the game (and he might miss this one) and Rashid Shaheed, who is on injured reserve. That means their gameplan is likely to mirror Tampa Bay's from a couple of weeks ago, with a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, and Juwan Johnson. While Hill and Kamara are talented and obnoxious, and the Saints offensive line is in better shape than last time around, that fits into Atlanta's desire to keep things in front of them and avoid big splash plays.

Defensively, the Saints seem unlikely to have answers for Atlanta. The last time these two teams played, Kirk Cousins was still settling in and both fumbled and threw an interception while having a pedestrian day through the air, and the Falcons didn't run all that much. Before clamping down a bit on the Panthers, the Saints had allowed 122 rushing yards to the Chargers , 225 to the Broncos, and 277 to the Buccaneers , so there is indeed an exploitable run defense here. They should still let Cousins go wild, because the Saints secondary has been hit hard by injuries and now the trade of Lattimore, opening things up for him to work downfield. Combine that with a lackluster pass rush—the Saints only got Cousins once last time and have 19 sacks, good for 23rd in the league—and it's all about whether or not New Orleans can force mistakes.

The Falcons may be without Drake London and Grady Jarrett, but the likely return of both Drew Dalman and Troy Andersen will help make up for that. Atlanta's playing so well on offense because many of its brightest lights are shining, from a sharp and comfortable Cousins to a dynamic Bijan Robinson to a rolling Darnell Mooney. Hyper aggressive defenses with good pass rushes can knock them out of rhythm, but the Saints are not one of those. Atlanta's habit of forcing Carr into dumb turnovers and preventing Kamara from taking over games means the biggest problem is likely to be whatever dumb garbage Taysom Hill gets up to.

If this wasn't the Saints we're talking about, I'd be pretty comfortable predicting a comfortable final margin, because this team is simply not that good and rapidly losing both pieces and hope. Because there's the interim coach bounce at play, because they're a rival that almost always plays the Falcons tough, and because Atlanta remains a work in progress defensively, it's likely to be a relatively close win. Still, the Falcons are the better team by a mile and are rounding into form here in the past few weeks, giving me real optimism that they'll avoid what some are already calling a trap game and come away with another crucial divisional victory.