Where is the Taylor Swift Bump For Kamala Harris?

The true impact of Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris lies more in boosting voter turnout than in directly increasing support for the Democrats, experts have told Newsweek.

Following the first debate between Harris and former president Donald Trump this month, Swift announced she was endorsing the vice president in an Instagram post.

"I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I'm voting for because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos," she wrote.

She also urged her supporters to register to vote. "Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it's much easier to vote early. I'll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story." She included a link to Vote.gov , a website run by two federal agencies—the General Services Administration and Election Assistance Commission—that help people register and verify their registration status.

The star signed off her message "Childless Cat Lady" in a reference to comments that Ohio Senator JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, made in 2021 when he described leading Democrats as " a bunch of childless cat ladies ."

Her endorsement came after weeks of speculation, but polling indicates that it may not have had the desired effect.

According to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University between September 19 and 22, more than three-quarters of likely voters (76 percent) said Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris does not make a difference in their level of enthusiasm about Harris' candidacy, while 9 percent said it makes them more enthusiastic, and 13 percent said it makes them less enthusiastic about Harris' candidacy.

Meanwhile, an Ipsos/ABC News poll from September 15 found that about 81 percent of voters surveyed said Swift's support for Vice President Harris would not influence how they vote. Just 6 percent of respondents said they are more likely to vote for Harris after Swift's endorsement, while 13 percent said it makes them less likely to back the Democratic ticket.

However, according to multiple experts, the impact of Swift's endorsement of Harris may not be found in increased support for the Democrats in November.

"While Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris—and her backhanded response to JD Vance 's denigration of female cat owners—has caught the headlines, it is unlikely to cause a considerable surge in Harris' electability," Dafydd Townley, who teaches American politics at the University of Portsmouth, told Newsweek earlier this month . "The vast majority of Swifties registered to vote, if not all of them, would have likely voted for Harris before the endorsement."

According to pollster Tom Bonier, increased voter registration is a better way of measuring the impact of the pop star's endorsement.

"The biggest likely impact of the endorsement is the registration and mobilization of people who weren't already registered," he wrote in a post on X. "Beyond that, as I've mentioned before, asking people if a celebrity influences their vote is going to produce predictable results, and isn't necessarily indicative of the actual impact."

Melissa Deckman, Public Religion Research Institute CEO and author of The Politics of Generation Z: How the Youngest Voters Will Shape our Democracy, agreed, telling Newsweek: "Most Americans don't rely on celebrity endorsements to make their presidential vote choices."

"I think Tom Bonier makes a very good point—there has been a spike in voter registration among younger Americans," she added.

In the three hours following Taylor Swift's post on Tuesday, September 10, from 9 p.m. to midnight ET, there was a 585 percent increase in voters using Vote.gov's registration and verification tools compared to the same time during the prior eight days, the New York Times reported. Over the following 24 hours, around 406,000 people clicked on Swift's link, making up more than half of the 727,000 total visitors to Vote.gov. By contrast, from September 3 to September 9, the site had an average of 30,000 daily visitors.

In a statement, Vote.org CEO Andrea Hailey said Swift's "impact on voter registration is undeniable." She continued: "The important thing to remember is that Taylor's work serves as a model that everyone with a platform can use to encourage Americans to participate in civic engagement. At the heart of it all, every American is an influencer and can help people around them register, vote, and protect access to the ballot box."

It is not the first time Swift has driven an increase in voter registration. In 2023, the singer posted a short message on Instagram encouraging her 272 million followers to register to vote. The post lead to more than 35,000 registrations, according to Vote.org. A post on Swift's Instagram in 2016 of her waiting in line to vote was also credited with increasing voter registration.

Meanwhile, Deckman was optimistic that the impact of Swift's endorsement could go beyond increasing voter registration this year.

She told Newsweek that Swift may be poised to make inroads with Gen Z voters "that may have important marginal effects in close battleground states."

"Since the last presidential election, 8 million more members of Gen Z are eligible to vote. She is arguably also more popular than in 2020, with close to 300 million Instagram followers," Deckman said.

A Newsweek/Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 1,750 registered voters conducted on July 29, found that 34 percent of Gen Z voters were either "more likely" or "significantly more likely" to vote for a Swift-endorsed candidate. Members of Gen Z were born between 1997 and 2012, giving them a maximum age of 27.

However, Thomas Gift, a political scientist who heads the Centre of U.S. Politics at University College London, is not optimistic that those who have now registered to vote will now turn out to the ballot box in November.

"Every year we hear that this is the election when young voters will come out in droves. The problem is that it rarely happens. Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could help on the margins. But we shouldn't underestimate the extent of voter apathy among this demographic," he told Newsweek.

Vote.org old USA TODAY that about 80 percent of people they register turn out in the next election.