White House touts lower Thanksgiving gas prices, but does Biden deserve the credit?

Gas prices are down this Thanksgiving compared to the last couple of years.

And the White House is claiming credit on behalf of President Joe Biden and his efforts.

“Gas prices are down $1.70 from their peak – just in time for holiday travel. Lowering costs for families continues to be President Biden’s top economic priority,” reads a White House social media post.

Of course, that claim wasn’t going to be ignored by the opposition.

“Arsonist takes credit for putting out fire. Gas still isn’t even close to what it was when Biden took office ($2.39/gallon),” Jake Schneider, director of rapid response at the Republican National Committee, countered on social media.

Are the posts just political spin? Or is the president really to credit or blame when gas prices rise or fall?

“Any administration is very limited in terms of what they can do to affect gas prices, because gas prices are set by each individual station,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said. “They know what they bought. They know what they paid for at the wholesaler. They know what their real estate costs are.”

It’s true that gas prices are down compared to 2022 and 2021.

, down 35 cents from a year ago.

It’s also lower than 2021, when it was about $3.39 at Thanksgiving.

But the Republican operative was also correct that gas prices are higher now than they were before Biden took office.

Thanksgiving prices in 2019 and 2018 were about $2.60.

Gross said one thing the Biden administration did do was tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve pretty aggressively last year to cap rising costs after Russia, a big oil producer, invaded Ukraine.

Otherwise, he said there’s not a lot a president can do to influence prices at the pump.

Crude oil is the of gas prices. Refining, distribution and taxes are also factors.

Gross said that about the only other thing a president can influence is the amount of federal land leased for oil pumping.

But Gross said the U.S. is already “churning it out” at record levels – about 13.2 million barrels a day of crude oil.

We're actually exporting more oil than we're importing right now, he said.

And more isn’t always better for the oil companies that are pumping on those land leases, he said.

Not only do pumping operations take crews and other resources, but oil companies are mindful of how supplies affect their share prices and their profits.

Biden’s “name is not in lights over that ... plaza where you're gassing up,” Gross said. “There is somebody else who has got a pretty firm hand on the pricing structure, and you're really not their customer. Their customer is their shareholder.”

The White House also posted a graphic on social media showing falling prices for various consumer goods with the caption, “Ahead of the holiday season, costs are down for everything from airline tickets and car rentals to toys and TVs. The Biden-Harris Administration is working every day to create more breathing room for hardworking families.”

Biden’s true influence on those prices is limited and indirect, said Colorado State University economist .

The government is like any other customer, except it “demands a lot,” Weiler said.

And the big demands of the government can put pressure on markets, he said.

For example, Biden’s generated a lot of government spending and has been accused of being “everything except inflation reduction,” Weiler said.

But Biden didn’t unilaterally enact the Inflation Reduction Act. It, of course, passed Congress.

And the cooling inflation that the White House is now touting is actually more the work of the than that of Biden or his administration, Weiler said.

When asked whether Biden or Fed Chair Jerome Powell have more influence on inflation, Weiler answered with no hesitation: “Jerome Powell.”

“The idea that the president has no influence at all is sort of off, but it's very indirect,” Weiler said.

What about gas prices this holiday season?

Getting back to gas prices, Gross said we’re in a normal “seasonal swoon” where prices fall after the summer.

Prices have dropped or remained flat for about 65 straight days, he said.

Even if there’s a small blip in prices for Thanksgiving, he said the expectation is that prices will continue their “steady, if glacial, decline.”

But, he said, we can only reliably project prices out a couple of weeks.

“If anybody tells you longer than that, that's clickbait,” Gross said. “Yeah, they're making it up.”