Who Is Winning Pennsylvania Election? David McCormick vs. Bob Casey Update

Democratic Senator Bob Casey and Republican businessman David McCormick are fighting to win an election in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania was expected to be one of the closest battlegrounds in both the presidential and Senate races. Polls for months showed Casey, first elected in 2006, maintaining a modest lead over McCormick but tightened in the final weeks of the race.

With 86 percent of the votes counted, McCormick was leading Casey with 49.3 percent of the vote, according to projections from NBC News.

The race was seen as a must-win for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate, an uphill challenge as they are defending other seats in more Republican-leaning states in Ohio.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have also been locked in a tight race.

Which Presidential Candidate Did Pennsylvania Voters Pick in 2016 and 2020?

Pennsylvania has emerged as a closely divided state in recent elections, flipping between Democrats and Republicans . While Democrats have gained with voters in the state's suburban areas, Republicans have made inroads with rural voters, keeping it competitive.

In 2016, the state voted for Trump by 0.7 points, the first time Pennsylvania had voted Republican since 1988. Four years later, President Joe Biden flipped it back, carrying the Keystone State by 1.2 points.

Since their 2016 loss, however, Democrats have been on a winning streak. In 2022, Democrats Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman won the state's gubernatorial and Senate races despite hopes of a red wave that never manifested in Pennsylvania, due in part to Democrats' focus on abortion rights after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade earlier that year.

Casey was last up for election in 2018, when he beat back a challenge from Lou Barletta, a former Republican Congressman backed by Trump, by about 13 points.

What Were the Polling Averages in Pennsylvania?

Polls long showed Casey with a slight lead over McCormick, although his lead had narrowed as Election Day inched closer. On Tuesday, 538 showed him with a 2.8 percent lead in their average of recent polls. One month earlier on October 5, Casey held an average lead of 5.2 points, according to the aggregate.

RealClearPolitics showed Casey with a similar 1.8-point lead in its Election Day polling average.

Forecasters believed both candidates had roughly equal chances of winning. The Cook Political Report classified Pennsylvania's Senate race as a toss-up, a decision made in the weeks before Election Day . Casey was viewed as a slight favorite through mid-October.

Abortion, Energy Among Biggest Issues in Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, like other battlegrounds, abortion was a key issue for voters , as it was two years earlier.

Although Casey previously described himself as being "pro-life," he highlighted support for abortion rights on the campaign trail as he sought to energize Democratic turnout in the state. Both candidates said they would oppose a national abortion ban.

Meanwhile, McCormick sought to tie Casey to Harris' previous opposition to fracking , which threatened to be a sticking point for some voters in the state's western region, where fracking is a significant part of the economy. Harris has said she no longer opposes fracking.

Casey has never supported a fracking ban, previously saying he would vote against efforts to do so and touting union support.