Who should be Patriots’ starting QB? What would split with Bill Belichick look like?
If you’re wondering how the New England Patriots’ season is going, the morning after the most embarrassing loss in a season full of them, Bill Belichick was asked if he knows which other team — as in, not the Patriots — he’ll be coaching next season. He was also peppered with questions about who was responsible for drafting quarterback Mac Jones , his latest in a string of recent draft busts.
That’s how bleak things have gotten for the venerable coach and his team. It barely feels worth revisiting Sunday’s game against the New York Giants since everyone already knows how bad it was.
With that in mind, here are 10 thoughts on the state of the team, the quarterback situation and what will happen at the end of the season between Belichick and the Patriots.
The Patriots know Jones is bad — see the tweet below — and they know Bailey Zappe is bad. But the alternatives are also bad.
Total quarterback EPA in games where the team ended up losing. Left side is mostly the QB played well in the loss. Right side is mostly the team lost due to QB play probably.Allen and Herbert both have 25+ EPA
*Dobbs EPA figure includes MIN and AZ pic.twitter.com/6JGsAlTOt6
— Shaun Newkirk November 27, 2023
That’s why I don’t think the Patriots can sign someone different and expect them to start within two weeks. Will Grier would be the likeliest candidate to pull that off, and it’s certainly possible that they try to bring him back on the practice squad. But Belichick values time spent in the facility learning from him and hearing his message, so it’s hard to imagine the Patriots going out and signing someone like Colt McCoy for the final six games.
“I don’t really see that right now,” Belichick said Monday. “But, I mean, I wouldn’t rule anything out, anything that would help our team. ... Nobody comes to mind, but we’ll see.”
On his weekly radio hit with WEEI, Belichick mentioned that “organizationally, we thought it was the right thing” to choose Mac Jones with the 15th pick in 2021. Then in his news conference that followed a few minutes later, he was given a chance to clarify, and said, “collectively” that the Patriots were on board with drafting Jones.
It’s unclear whether he was being purposefully vague or whether he’s trying to pass the buck, but it’s worth stopping to make a point.
Owner Robert Kraft let Belichick run that draft, just like all the others since 2000. Belichick picks the players. Was Kraft good with drafting a quarterback in the first round? For sure. But did Kraft insist that Belichick take Jones? No.
It’s time to turn to Zappe. Full stop. Give him every starter rep in practice. Build a simple offense around what he can do.
It probably won’t win a lot of games. The body of evidence we have suggests Zappe won’t be a successful NFL quarterback. But you can’t keep turning to Jones. He’s broken.
With Jones on the field, it feels like the entire team is just waiting for him to make a crippling mistake. And since the Patriots seem to have no interest in Malik Cunningham playing quarterback (considering the coaches have kept him from his natural position as much as possible), roll with Zappe. If he wins a few games, great, that’s a better result than sticking with Jones would’ve yielded. If he loses the final six games, fine, you’re headed for a top draft pick.
Here’s an example of the fear that permeates Gillette Stadium because of the way Belichick runs things. Half a dozen Patriots players were asked when they knew who the starting quarterback was going to be following Sunday’s 10-7 loss to the Giants. Not a single one gave a straight answer because they were scared Belichick, who pays close attention to his players’ news conferences, might be displeased.
So now a locker room full of professional athletes is too scared to talk about decisions made about a game that’s already been played. The whole thing is odd.
ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky made headlines when he claimed on a radio appearance two weeks ago that Belichick’s next destination was already “determined.” That seemed (and continues to seem) absurd.
Asked about that on his weekly WEEI hit, Belichick called the idea “ridiculous.”
While I don’t believe Belichick knows where he’ll be coaching next year, it does hint at a potential issue if the losing continues.
If the Patriots continue to play like this, there could come a point where it feels like Belichick is a lame-duck coach, simply riding out his final few games until an inevitable parting of ways at the end of the season. (That would be more dignified than an in-season firing.)
Assuming Belichick is looking for a new job next year, after beating the Patriots with an undrafted quarterback, it’s looking like the Giants won’t be an option. New York is 4-8 despite a bad roster and an injured starting quarterback.
A move to the Giants to close out his legendary career would be a full-circle moment for Belichick, who won two Super Bowls as the Giants’ defensive coordinator. But it doesn’t look likely as Brian Daboll, a Belichick disciple, will probably stick around in New York.
If Kraft is ready to move on from Belichick, I’m very curious how it’ll end.
Obviously, they’d prefer to find a trading partner since Belichick could probably net you a first-round pick from another team. But that may not be how Belichick wants to end his time in New England. Maybe he wants a mutual split that emphasizes his importance to the franchise or a firing that comes with guaranteed money, especially since if he’s traded to a new team, the draft pick going to New England would be one less asset for him.
So would a separation happen mutually? Or would Belichick put up a fight and force Kraft to fire him? Or could they do some awkward limbo situation where Belichick chats with other teams following the season to find his next spot and Kraft comes in to negotiate the details of the trade?
I don’t know which is the most likely, but it’s something to think about the final six weeks.
At this point, it may not matter and fans may not care about breaking down the Patriots’ next opponent. But I’ll just mention that the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense is really bad.
If there was ever a game for this Patriots offense to get right or for a new quarterback to get a good start on things, this is it. The Chargers rank 27th in the NFL in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, 24th in points allowed and 29th in yards per play allowed.
Draft prep starts early when you’re a really bad team. That’s why the Patriots are already studying their options for what could be their first top-five pick since 1994. Matt Groh, the team’s highest-ranking member of the front office not named Belichick, spent Saturday at the Ohio State-Michigan game, presumably with an eye on Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
On Wednesday, Dane Brugler will unveil his latest mock draft (I won’t spoil it for you), but it got me thinking that the Patriots would really benefit from Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray playing well the rest of the season. He already has a contract that would be difficult to trade, but if Murray plays well, that could encourage the Cardinals to keep him and remove one quarterback-needy team from the mix at the top of the draft.
These are the things you have to consider when your team is 2-9.
(Photo: Ethan Miller / )
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